danning
@sui414
Research Director @PanteraCapital. co-host @indexed_pod. previously data @ Flashbots ⚡️🤖 @0xProject @ConsenSys.
1.9K Following 11.2K Followers
What is the world betting on?
H1 audited data via @Surfdeveloper MCP shows that Sports account for half of Polymarket International’s taker-leg volume.
Crypto follows at ~30%, inflated by the controversial MicroStrategy market; while World/Geopolitics ranks third at ~15%.
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July snapshot (avg open interest / one-sided taker volume / daily turnover):
Kalshi: $970M OI · $13.3B vol · ≈0.44×/day
Polymarket Intl: $420M OI · $3.0B vol · ≈0.23×/day
Polymarket US: $100M OI · $2.0B vol · ≈0.64×/day
Two puzzles:
1) How did Kalshi do $10.3B more‼️ volume than Polymarket Intl in July, with only $550M more OI?
2) And how did Polymarket US print almost same volume as Intl's with just $100M OI?
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People been mogging Polymarket volume down bad. The truth is, while Polymarket International volume holds up stable, a quiet part of the story is that Polymarket US has been growing strong.
Note: volume below are counted on single-leg taker volume, different from notional volume and is roughly half of it
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Super excited to release the study with @0xallyzach on the microstructure of Short-term Crypto Markets, where we cover an overview on the growth momentum & economics on both @Kalshi and @Polymarket, plus a deep dive into Polymarket’s user segments and 🕵🏻♂️ potential market manipulation:
This is a "MEV" strategy that no one has called out lout til now (which allegedly long-existed in option trading) —
Some traders appear to have figured out how to influence the closing price of Polymarket’s 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets while betting and profiting. 👇🧵
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@PanteraCapital The tokenized asset market hit new highs in 2025. Every major bank now has a Head of Digital Assets.
But how much of today’s momentum is real on-chain infrastructure — versus flashy headlines and distribution wrapped in new rails?
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Proud to launch Pantera's Tokenization Portal and Q1 Report with @0xallyzach @FranklinBi!
The biggest surprise from our study of the $320B market: Most tokenized assets are still Wrappers — by design, not by accident.
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