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Basha باشا
@BashaReport
Basha Report a U.S. based Risk Advisory 🇺🇸 #Libya# #Iraq# #Syria# #Iran# #Yemen# #Lebanon# #Sudan# #Gaza# #Somalia# #OSINT# #Maritime# #VEO# | Associate Fellow @RUSI_org
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Speaking at the 22nd @IISS_org Manama Dialogue #IISS_MD26#, Dr. Anwar Gargash @AnwarGargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President @MohamedBinZayed, warned that the Gulf remains trapped in a prolonged state of “no war, no peace,” with Washington and Tehran still far apart. “If these positions are not bridged, then we have to worry about the worst,” he said. Gargash stressed that the UAE opposes another round of confrontation and supports diplomatic efforts, including Qatar’s mediation, but remains “braced for the worst” and prepared to defend its sovereignty, citizens, and economic infrastructure. On Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Gargash praised Bahrain’s resilience under Iranian attacks, saying the Kingdom had shown “steadfastness,” “courage,” and the ability to protect its population. He expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia following attacks on civilian airports and infrastructure, declaring, “Nobody can in any way justify an attack on civilian airports and civilian infrastructure.” He emphasized that Gulf security is interconnected and that threats to Bahrain or Saudi Arabia directly affect the UAE and other GCC states. On the GCC’s collective response, Gargash delivered one of his strongest assessments, acknowledging that Gulf states had failed to respond effectively as a bloc. “We have not collectively risen to the challenge,” he said. While individual countries had demonstrated resilience, he warned that confidence in the GCC’s collective ability to confront a crisis of this magnitude “has in many cases proven to be hollow, unfortunately.” He called for “rebuilding Gulf confidence,” acknowledging that the process would take many years. On Iran, Gargash distinguished between restoring diplomatic relations and rebuilding trust. “What really has been broken is the confidence,” he said, stressing that it had been shattered by Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries. While Iran remains an essential neighbor and diplomatic and economic relations will eventually resume, rebuilding trust would take “an extremely long time.” On the Strait of Hormuz, Gargash described restoring the prewar status quo as “important and non-negotiable.” He rejected restrictions on energy exports and international trade, arguing that Gulf countries should not bear the economic consequences of “a crisis that we did not create.” On relations with Washington, Gargash reaffirmed the importance of the UAE’s security partnership with the United States, saying the crisis had “concretized that relationship” and made it “even more important.” He stressed that American cooperation remains central to the UAE’s security calculations, alongside its own political will and military air defense capabilities. Gargash also questioned the effectiveness of regional middle powers, arguing that diplomatic conferences and mediation initiatives had failed to produce meaningful results in a crisis fundamentally driven by Washington and Tehran. He concluded that the UAE continues to seek a political settlement and does not believe a military solution is viable. However, he cautioned that avoiding renewed confrontation cannot be guaranteed if diplomatic efforts fail to bridge the divide between the United States and Iran.
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Important: Houthis Used @claudeai @AnthropicAI for Missile Programming Excerpt from the Detecting and countering misuse of AI: September 2026 GTG-87001: Disrupting a Yemen-based guided weapons engineering cell using Claude to develop guidance software Summary We identified a cell of threat actors based in northern Yemen running three weapons development programs: a guided rocket that used a commodity phone-class flight computer with final-phase homing guidance; a multi-stage ballistic missile with a stated range goal above 2,000 km; and a multi-variant missile (referred to as the “R2000” set) that included a hypersonic glide vehicle variant. The actors used Claude Code in place of human software engineers to develop the guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) software that steers and stabilizes a flying vehicle. For example, they used Claude to integrate an open-source autopilot onto a phone-class flight computer, writing the control and position estimation software, tuning the control settings, running a firmware build pipeline, and performing a flight simulation. The actors managed several Claude instances at once, assigning each one a role, much as a lead would delegate work on a small engineering team: the actors tasked one instance with writing the code, another with research, and a third with reviewing the code the first instance produced. Our safeguards blocked many of their requests, but not all of them. The actors used a variety of tactics to evade our safeguards, including hiding their goals and the products the software was meant for, and they split their work across multiple sessions so no single session revealed their full intent. These actors carried out a sustained effort to develop guided weapons, including using Claude to design guidance software. We do not have evidence the actors succeeded in fielding an operational device; but they did test-fire a guided rocket. This field test appears to have failed: within hours, the actors returned to Claude to work out why it failed. We identified this activity as part of our internal investigations into suspected weapons development. We banned accounts associated with the actors and shared threat information with public- and private-sector partners to mitigate risks posed by the actors. Nevertheless, we have evidence that the actors had already built an offline simulation toolkit that does not rely on Claude or other engineering computing environments such as MATLAB.
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Update: The arrest of former Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Refining Affairs, Adnan Mohammed Hamoud al-Jumaili, has so far led not only to a wave of high-profile arrests, but also to the seizure of what may become one of the largest corruption stockpiles uncovered in post-2003 Iraq. So far, Iraqi authorities say they have seized more than 98 billion Iraqi dinars and $11 million in cash. Part of the money was reportedly buried four meters underground and hidden on farms. Courts have also frozen 70 residential and commercial properties and confiscated 21 modern vehicles. Investigators have also recovered nearly three kilograms of gold, an estimated 70 to 85 firearms, roughly 300 to 400 magazines, and dozens of ammunition crates, storage containers, and equipment cases. Al-Jumaili, who also served as Director General of the North Refineries Company and the Baiji Refinery, was arrested in the Ishaqi area of Salah al-Din Governorate by a specialized security force executing a judicial warrant. His case was transferred to the Interior Ministry's Intelligence and Federal Investigations Agency. His arrest came about a month after he was removed from his post by order of Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi as part of a broader review of government contracts and corruption allegations.
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