Carson Investment Research
@CarsonResearch
Hype-free market and investment perspectives from the Carson Group's investment research team.
239 Following 8.6K Followers
39 years ago this week, the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day. @RyanDetrick looks back at the Crash of 1987, from Greenspan stuck on a plane to why stocks still finished the year in the green.
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PIMCO's Libby Cantrill joins @RyanDetrick and @sonusvarghese two weeks out from the midterms.
🗳️ The case for a blue wave
🏛️ A tough Senate map
🏗️ The data center backlash
📊 Why markets like gridlock
🏦 Deficits, yields, and the Fed
Full episode 👇
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The S&P 500 is back at all-time highs. @RyanDetrick breaks down why he thinks the party isn't over yet, from Q4's track record to a bull market about to turn four.
It’s tech or bust 👇
New Facts vs. Feelings with @RyanDetrick and @sonusvarghese
📈 Mag 7 at a new all-time high
🤖 AI capex keeps lifting chips
🏦 Was the Fed hike really hawkish?
🪙 Bitcoin breaks above $85K
🛍️ Retail sales beat, 1.1% vs 0.8%
Full episode 👇
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Four straight weeks without a 1% weekly move in the S&P 500. AAII bears just hit their highest level since May 2025.
@RyanDetrick on why you should never short a dull market.
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OpenAI and Anthropic are now the ones warning about the risks of their own breakthroughs.
Blake Anderson on why that has tech stocks on edge, and why it doesn't have to end the tech trade.
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This 👇
Not sure why the 10y yield should go down if the Fed starts hiking (setting aside any near-term volatility)
📊 The 10-year cracked 5% for the first time since October 2023.
Nominal GDP is running near 8%.
@sonusvarghese's read: that's repricing, not necessarily a warning sign.
New Facts vs Feelings 👇
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Apple has gone from roughly 18% of global mobile device sales a decade ago to above 30% today. It didn't take the top spot from Samsung until 2022.
Nokia led this chart on day one. It's at 0% now.
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Tim Cook handed Apple to John Ternus on September 1 after hosting 15 annual product events as CEO. Blake Anderson on the track record Ternus inherited and what his first event showed.
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Five recent hiking cycles started with 0.25%. Stocks were lower a month later all five times. A year later, they were higher all five times, up 12.5% on average.
Odds of a Fed hike on September 16 are hovering near 60%. Our base case is still no hike this year. But if we are wrong, history says the size of the first hike matters far more than the fact of it.
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The argument that the economy is cooling rested almost entirely on payrolls. August took that away, and the rest of the data is not close. What the numbers actually say.
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Payroll growth was the last piece of evidence for a slowing economy. The August report took it away. @sonusvarghese on why the nominal economy is running near 6%.
@RyanDetrick keeps hearing that the market is rigged. Money printing, the Fed, M2, all of it.
His answer: it is rigged. To go higher over time.
