Carson Investment Research
@CarsonResearch
Hype-free market and investment perspectives from the Carson Group's investment research team.
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📊 The 10-year cracked 5% for the first time since October 2023.
Nominal GDP is running near 8%.
@sonusvarghese's read: that's repricing, not necessarily a warning sign.
New Facts vs Feelings 👇
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Five recent hiking cycles started with 0.25%. Stocks were lower a month later all five times. A year later, they were higher all five times, up 12.5% on average.
Odds of a Fed hike on September 16 are hovering near 60%. Our base case is still no hike this year. But if we are wrong, history says the size of the first hike matters far more than the fact of it.
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The argument that the economy is cooling rested almost entirely on payrolls. August took that away, and the rest of the data is not close. What the numbers actually say.
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Payroll growth was the last piece of evidence for a slowing economy. The August report took it away. @sonusvarghese on why the nominal economy is running near 6%.
@RyanDetrick keeps hearing that the market is rigged. Money printing, the Fed, M2, all of it.
His answer: it is rigged. To go higher over time.
