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Matt Dratch
@DratchCap
Macro Equity PM | Dartmouth Fball ’08 “Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.” Views expressed are solely my own and not on behalf of my employer.
Joined December 2010
317 Following    8.8K Followers
X is often very noisy and I am easily enraged (hence preferring Grok Bot scrapes to scrolling). But it is also a new social vector where you can meet super interesting and brilliant people exchanging ideas. Since I've gotten more involved with posting, I've been fortunate enough to make new personal connections and even had really positive private exchanges with folks I've debated publicly. With the world and our workflows changing this fast, and X becoming a bigger place to exchange perspectives, it's very hopeful to have these interactions. Yesterday I had the pleasure of meeting @TMTLongShort in real life and a few other new X friends for a “maxi-lunch”. It was awesome to put faces to the accounts, and I came away thoroughly impressed with everyone and with the quality of discussion. One of the best lunches I’ve had in a while. And I learned a lot, particularly about the maxi perspective! Emotionally, I'd like to push back on it hard (Tower of Babel etc). BUT I am 1) a dreamer, and 2) a huge believer in technological compounding… and things are just moving really fast. So I'm choosing to suspend disbelief and keep a very open maxi-mind… And to those of you who I’ve chatted with, thank you. Ok, back to praying to the mkt gods 😝
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The truth is there are far fewer AI-maxis within the investing class than you might otherwise think. Plenty of bottleneck bros. Lots of hyperscale truthers. Abundant semiconductor enjoyers. Infinite momo lovers. But people who have actually glimpsed the future because they can think non-linearly and instantly understood Leo’s message back in mid-2024… an incredibly small handful. The most fascinating part has been that neither Claude Code or Astra changed this. The same people who can think abstractly before the proofpoint continue to be able to after. And everyone else still needs to be spoon fed. I’d estimate within the TMT L/S community sub-5% are true maxis. And no Coatue isn’t maxi. Neither is Gavin who I respect the fuck out of. But he’s rationally optimistic but cautious. Maxi’s start with the assumption that models can be scaled up well past human intellect at a pace that the human mind can’t project and the economic value of that scale up is exponentially larger than existing gdp. Human bottlenecks are irrelevant as models get smarter. And with that north star we work backwards because path function matters and we have to pay rent until the robots are made. It’s a very different headspace vs starting with the premise that hyperscalers are likely to milk a couple hundred billion in cloud revs if this all goes to shit.
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