BuY aNd HoDL - YoU MiSsEd ThE BoTtOm…
I’ve been called an absolute moron for sitting on the sidelines after selling everything in October 2025.
Well, it’s time to do the math.
JULY 1 — THE “GENIUS” ENTRY
BTC: ~$58K. A 21-month low.
Fear & Greed at 11.
ETFs bleeding record outflows.
Strategy selling BTC.
A hawkish new Fed chair.
Fear everywhere. Nobody wanted to touch it.
But YOU bought. You’re a genius.
(Side note: If you had the balls to call July the bottom, chances are you also called the bottom 2–3 times before that, all the way down from January.)
AUGUST 19 — THE CONFIRMATION
BTC prints a new daily higher high and closes above resistance.
The Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks. $2.7B in shorts gets liquidated.
For the first time, there is an actual technical thesis to deploy capital.
You bought again.
I waited for the pullback.
I told you one thing: PATIENCE.
SEPTEMBER 22 — THE FOMO ENTRY
ETFs pull in nearly $1 BILLION in a single day.
BTC reaches ~$86K.
Everyone is bullish again.
You feel unstoppable.
So you buy more.
Two days later?
Bond yields hit their highest levels since 2007 and the FED starts talking about hiking again.
BTC rolls over.
NOW LET’S LOOK AT YOUR PERFORMANCE.
You bought BTC three times:
July: $58.6K
August: $64.7K
September: $86.6K
Average entry: ~$70K.
BTC today: ~$81K.
You’re up roughly 16%.
Not bad.
But remember, this assumes you perfectly caught the July bottom AND kept “ buy and hold afterward”.
Now comes my favorite part.
“BuT wHaT aBoUt AlTs?!”
Let’s assume you made those same three purchases across altcoins.
Your best performers:
PYTH: +59%
NEAR: +51%
QNT: +43%
Your worst performers:
Canton: -12%
GRAM: -9%
XLM: -7%
But here’s what nobody talks about:
THE RISK YOU TOOK TO GET THOSE RETURNS.
You were buying into extreme uncertainty, betting that every dip was THE bottom.
And what if you weren’t a genius?
What if you missed July and only started buying in August and September?
Your returns suddenly look VERY different.
BEST PERFORMERS:
PYTH: +38%
NEAR: +25%
QNT: +13%
WORST PERFORMERS:
Canton: -5%
GRAM: -9%
XLM: -8%
And the majors?
BTC: +7%
ETH: +1%
SOL: +3%
READ THAT AGAIN 👆
Months of volatility, uncertainty, emotional stress and capital exposure.
For 1–7% on the biggest cryptocurrencies.
But don’t worry, the saxophone gets louder...
If you listened to the moonboys screaming that the bottom was in, and bought their favorite shills near the highs you’d be down about 60-70%:
STONK: -72%
PONS: -67%
USELESS: -55%
RAIN: -52%
FWA: -62%
Some people spent months averaging down into assets that kept bleeding.
All because they were terrified of missing the bottom.
HERE’S WHAT PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND ABOUT PATIENCE.
The goal isn’t to buy the absolute bottom.
The goal is to deploy capital when the probability of success justifies the risk.
I’d rather miss the first 10% of a sustainable move than lose 40% trying to predict where the bottom is.
Because being early and being right are NOT the same thing.
And protecting capital IS a position.
Cash isn’t a failure.
Waiting isn’t weakness.
And refusing to chase isn’t missing out.
I didn’t miss the bottom. I chose not to gamble on it.
Could I have made money buying July? Absolutely.
Could I have lost a lot more trying to catch every falling knife before it? Absolutely.
The difference is that I don’t need to be the hero who catches the exact bottom.
I need to be the investor who still has capital when the REAL opportunity arrives.
And I believe that opportunity is getting closer.
It’s almost time to deploy.
Patience will be rewarded.
Higher.
BREAKING: Intel, $INTC, extends losses to -30% on the day, now on track for its biggest decline on record.
Not even the Dot-Com bubble or 1970s saw a decline in $INTC like this.
Hear me out…
Nov 2011: Mt. Gox Hack → ~12 months later Bitcoin was up ~500%
Jan 2015: Post-Mt. Gox Collapse → ~12 months later Bitcoin was up ~160%
Dec 2018: Crypto Winter Bottom → ~12 months later Bitcoin was up ~125%
Mar 2020: COVID Crash → ~12 months later Bitcoin was up ~1,100%
Nov 2022: FTX Collapse → ~12 months later Bitcoin was up ~130%
October 2026: Binance Hack → What % do you think $BTC will be up in 12 months?
Let me know below 👇
I’ll start: 80%.
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
Pretty crazy to see an AI generated FOMC feed running on @YouTube with 15K views live, offering "send your money you get double back now".
Pay attention.
Also, @YouTubeCreators, instead of banning honest channels find a way to monitor this....
📅 Big week for markets: Oct 26 – Nov 1
Tuesday, Oct 27: FOMC starts · Robinhood ($HOOD) + Visa ($V) earnings (after close)
Wednesday, Oct 28: Fed decision 2:00pm ET, Powell 2:30pm ET · Microsoft ($MSFT) + Alphabet ($GOOGL) earnings (after close)
Thursday, Oct 29: US GDP + PCE inflation 8:30am ET · ECB decision 9:15am ET · Amazon ($AMZN), Intel ($INTC), Coinbase ($COIN) + Strategy ($MSTR) earnings (after close)
Friday, Oct 30: BoJ decision · BTC monthly options expiry
Sunday, Nov 1: $ENA + $SUI token unlocks
Average coin performance in the top 100 by market cap
Average from 60-day high: –14.3%
Average since June 1: +12.9%
Unless you are an absolute genius buying bottoms and selling tops, haven’t missed anything