Nothing alarmingly bad in the $NFLX report. Just not much to get excited about either.
Profit beats mainly via expense timing. More revenue growth slowing. Not much to make me believe that's going to change.
Slightly underwhelming revenue guide due to slower than expected product rollouts. Not the end of the world. Just not all uplifting either.
I continue to think the main issue is competition. 3 of the richest companies in the world are working hard to take market share in this arena.
All of them can spend boatloads on content. None of them are reliant on their libraries as the core profit driver. All 3 of them can rationally operate their competing businesses at much lower margin than $NFLX can for a long time.
Anecdotally ask yourselves 2 things:
1) How often did you talk with friends about shows on streamers besides Netflix 5 years ago?
2) How often does that happen today?
For me... the answer to #
1# is "not much" and the answer the #
2# is "much more." I think that's increasingly the norm... and I think that gets to the root of the problem.
I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.
The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.
I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind.
So what is the issue? I think it’s fierce competition.
When $AAPL, $AMZN & $GOOGL have all prioritized their streaming libraries…
When they don’t need to make much money on those libraries…
& when they have far more money to spend than Netflix does…
How is the pure play supposed to sustainably compete?
I don’t have a good answer to that question… so I focus elsewhere.
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