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Brad Freeman
@StockMarketNerd
Detailed equity research and balanced portfolio insights for serious investors who want analysis over hype. Invest with good reason here.
1.4K Following    200.7K Followers
Muse is killing it for $META: "Muse engagement and retention are also off to strong starts. About 25% of people who have set up Muse, use it on any given day... So to put this in perspective, this is more than twice the level that threads started at or where we believe other AI apps started at as well... For our earliest adopters, the longer that they use it, the better the retention seems to get... Plaid told us that they hadn't seen activity like they're seeing with their Muse connector on any other service before. And in the first week, we had to work with Stripe to raise credit limits since the volumes were above what any of us expected."
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200x earnings... for this. 🤷‍♂️
It's easy to shrug off 26% Y/Y growth for $META. But this is not normal... in the best of ways. 23% growth Q3 2023. 19% growth Q3 2024. 26% growth Q3 2025. 26% growth Q3 2026. At a $64.6B revenue base! I repeat: Not. Normal. They are not getting any help from GPU sales/rentals like their mega-cap peers. This is all core business health. Zuck is kinda good at this.
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Guys… Please back out the one-off $META legal charge or at least acknowledge it before you say “OH NO BIG EPS MISS TIME TO PANIC.” $0.60 ahead without the non-recurring fee.
Question: Why are you so confident that $META AI investments are working beyond early Muse clues? Answer:
Love this new life insurance partnership for $SOFI. Give your member another valuable tool from a trusted and complementary vendor. Do so in an asset light way that doesn’t require SoFi to use the balance sheet for funding. Keep members in the ecosystem for a larger part of their financial lives. Higher retention… more cross-selling… higher lifetime value… unlocking better SoFi+ perks… all while maintaining lending flexibility… spinning the flywheel. Great move.
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To $NFLX or not to $NFLX. That is the question. Are you buying the $NFLX dip or avoiding this former Wall St. Darling? About as cheap as it has been at any point this decade. But certainly some issues to work through. What do you think?
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I think one of the most underrated assets inside $ONDS is DZYNE's ULTRA which is an Air Force-deployed Group 5 drone that can stay airborne for over 3 days carrying ~400 pounds of sensors. And at just ~$10M compared to ~$40M for an MQ-9 you can see how the military could potentially field 4 ULTRAs for the price of one which fits perfectly with its growing push toward affordable mass.
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Don’t stand in the tracks when the train is coming! Hebbia growing like a weed. Every new AI tool they ship scaling nicely. Good to see this tech finally making its way into financial service workflows a bit more meaningfully. Keep it up!
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Q3 was the biggest quarter in Hebbia's history, and I’m incredibly proud of the team that made it happen. • New ARR tripled quarter over quarter • Daily active users grew 5x • Gross revenue retention exceeded 95% The usage growth is especially exciting to me. More people are using Hebbia, and a greater share are coming back every day. We also shipped three major launches: • Max, an AI teammate that works the way your firm works. • Matrix 2.0, our next generation of agents for research and analysis. • Our API and MCP server, bringing Hebbia into the tools our customers already use and build. Seeing the team deliver these products while more customers make Hebbia part of their daily work makes this quarter particularly meaningful. Last week alone, we won five new banks to kick off the quarter. Thank you to our customers for trusting us with your work, and to everyone at Hebbia for making this our strongest quarter yet.
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There is a chance that $META spooks some people with a massive 2027 expense guide. But they’ve proven they can make these investments work and then some. More evidence of using AI to accelerate the core business than any peer. Rapidly building evidence that they can build new experiences that enjoy traction at a historic pace. If Mr. Market wants to punish them for doing the right thing & ignoring the short-sighted temptations of quarterly profit optimization? I will take advantage. They should be spending.
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Thoughts on the "integrated platform" pitch from $ONDS: There are pieces of this company that drive real & tangible value beyond what competition provides. That's where I think the focus should be. Not pitching the idea of platform unification as an edge when $PLTR is the company that powers it and when pretty much the entire product suite was acquired.
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$ONDS has spent last 18 months buying its way toward becoming a defense prime through ~20 acquisitions while raising ~$2B in equity that pushed its share count from ~100M to over 500M. That's obviously massive dilution but revenue per share has still increased ~12x which is awesome considering how aggressively management has financed its expansion through equity. The question now is whether Ondas can turn all that acquired revenue into organic growth and eventually 20%+ EBITDA margins because that's what will ultimately determine whether the dilution actually created value.
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Nothing alarmingly bad in the $NFLX report. Just not much to get excited about either. Profit beats mainly via expense timing. More revenue growth slowing. Not much to make me believe that's going to change. Slightly underwhelming revenue guide due to slower than expected product rollouts. Not the end of the world. Just not all uplifting either. I continue to think the main issue is competition. 3 of the richest companies in the world are working hard to take market share in this arena. All of them can spend boatloads on content. None of them are reliant on their libraries as the core profit driver. All 3 of them can rationally operate their competing businesses at much lower margin than $NFLX can for a long time. Anecdotally ask yourselves 2 things: 1) How often did you talk with friends about shows on streamers besides Netflix 5 years ago? 2) How often does that happen today? For me... the answer to #1# is "not much" and the answer the #2# is "much more." I think that's increasingly the norm... and I think that gets to the root of the problem.
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I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot. The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming. I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind. So what is the issue? I think it’s fierce competition. When $AAPL, $AMZN & $GOOGL have all prioritized their streaming libraries… When they don’t need to make much money on those libraries… & when they have far more money to spend than Netflix does… How is the pure play supposed to sustainably compete? I don’t have a good answer to that question… so I focus elsewhere.
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What is this, a Black Monday for ants?
THE $ONDS OFFICIAL DEEP-DIVE EPISODE JUST DROPPED What I think people are missing with Ondas is that management has spent last 18 months buying its way towards becoming an emerging defense prime spanning counter drone systems, long endurance surveillance, precision strike, ground robotics, manufacturing and the software connecting everything together. That creates a massive opportunity for Ondas but it also makes the stock so difficult to own in 2026 because so much of that growth was acquired and financed through share dilution meaning management now has to prove these businesses can grow organically and become more valuable together than they were separately.
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Two years ago Ondas did $7 million in revenue. Its target this year is $525 million to $550 million, and @StockSavvyShay says most of that is bought. He and @StockMarketNerd go deep on $ONDS and whether all those businesses can run as one company.
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Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, @StockSavvyShay and @StockMarketNerd go deep on $ONDS. Brad calls Ondas an acquiring machine, with a broad product suite that reaches past defense and military into enterprise and public safety.
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Capital constrained Neo-clouds like $IREN that are not close to GAAP profitability should not be buying jersey patches. You sell to massive enterprises. Not consumers. Maybe dilute your shareholders a little less instead. 🤷‍♂️
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Breaking: Futures inch a tiny bit higher as Black Monday strikes again.
The frequent M&A makes $ONDS an interesting & somewhat chaotic company to study. But after digging through it… I see why this has so many investors feeling excited. A lot still to prove. But a lot to like. Episode tomorrow. 🎯
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Something big is dropping on the Futurum Equities YouTube channel tomorrow morning... $ONDS