Felix Wang, CFA
@HedgeyeTech
MD @ Hedgeye; AI/Frontier Tech, Semis, China, $AAPL $NVDA $AVGO $MSFT $CRWV $NBIS, OpenAI, Anthropic, Deepseek $BABA $VRT $SE $AVGO $MELI Not Investment Advice
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I talked about the strange timing of Jensen’s exit on @BloombergTV. There are a ton of conspiracy theories floating around - I’m going to address a new one which involves $ANT as part of my Anthropic presentation next Wednesday $NVDA
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Good thing we got out of $NVDA 2 weeks ago before it started cracking. Embarrassing day for Jensen. If he is out of his own company, it will have ramifications for the entire global supply chain and export controls.
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Yesterday, we removed another of our AI beneficiaries - $AMAT. $AMAT had soared 40% since we went bullish back in February. We continue to de-risk on AI and now, WFE.
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Wow. $GOOGL TPUs available at $ORCL OCI
We continue to be defensive. We exited $NVDA Long on a Rubin issue. Last week, we flipped one of the hottest stocks in the world - Kioxia - from Long to Short.
$KXIAY $285A.T has been a big winner for us this year - up ~115% since our Bull call in March 2026. But the next 6-12 months will be a different game.
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@HedgeyeTech Where do we see find this product?
Sell-side loves $ANET (it's Citi's #1# pick) and much more concerned about $MRVL. We like the opposite - Marvell has outperformed Arista by 100% since our pair trade in April. I'm off to @OpenComputePrj conference soon - there is a session that I think could make some Arista bulls nervous...
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Why is no one saying $AAPL is a bubble? We're Short. Our bear thesis played out in a big way last quarter - we think it will continue as Apple's supercycle bursts. We wrote about the weak lead times for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max last month. We're working on two critical data sets: our global inventory checker (iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max) and our social barometer for the iPhone Duo. We will unveil the results later this month.
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We're trying something new, specifically for traders called Trader's Diary. These are rapid fire headlines on tickers in our global tech ecosystem, along with Keith's quant signals on relevant tickers. Moreover, we share short interest data across our coverage space every 2 weeks - what funds are shorting and buying/covering. And 3 daily trades.
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More IPOs postponed - data center company, Firmus, postpone IPO
OpenAI said ARR at end of Sept was ~$50bn, not the $70bn previously rumored
Samsung prelim Q3 2026 revenues and operating income both missed consensus . We exited our Samsung Long back in August
What is going on with $SE? Just persistent selling. Ugh
@herbertong @thejefflutz No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that.
Maybe TSMC subleases part of the Terafab if they want, but nothing more than that.
All 3 ideas working today…We’re hosting an investor dinner @OpenComputePrj on Oct 14th in San Jose. If you’re an institutional investor and would like to join, DM me
Ahead of my trip to OCP next month, we’re working on 3 semiconductor names (2 longs, 1 short) at same time
Just updated our Hedgeye Fab Database (with 43 global foundry players), which is our crystal ball to forecast 2027-2028 WFE. I think overall, semicaps could tread water . Big $AMAT investor breakfast and Semicon West next week —waiting to see what they say on $INTC
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$MRVL went with blue theme for its investor day, in contrast to $SNDK red theme for their investor day
Heading to $MRVL investor day —let’s see how much additional color we get on Google
Networking > memory. We’ve been more cautious on the memory space since end of June by saying supply/demand improve significantly by 2H 2027. Now, I’m hearing more folks saying that.
Networking names should outperform - catalysts are more favorable. Our new ideas reflect this
$SMH
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GAME ON 🚨
Hedgeye's 17th online "Investing Summit"
October 6-8
11am-1pm ET
3 days. 9 webcasts. 0 excuses.
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