Herbert Ong
@herbertong
Follow me for daily interviews of Tesla experts, $TSLA Milestones and Humanoid Bots
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Tesla is within touching distance of Waymo’s Texas registration total.
Another 38 Model Ys bring Tesla to 1,282 registered vehicles, just 3 behind Waymo’s 1,285.
The tracker’s Tesla breakdown now includes 709 Model Ys and 573 Cybercabs.
The exciting part is the foundation Tesla is building for robotaxi expansion, with purpose-built Cybercabs already making up a substantial share. $TSLA
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Adding robotaxi cities can strengthen Tesla's business without immediately making its stock less sensitive to the AI trade.
Fort Worth became the seventh driverless city in the same week Tesla shares fell about 10%. Geographic expansion is evidence of rollout progress, but it doesn't yet establish how much each vehicle earns after operating costs or how efficiently each new city scales.
The next step in the investment case is turning a wider service footprint into repeatable economics. More cities matter. What Tesla earns from serving them will matter more over time. $TSLA
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Cybercab's scaling advantage could come from using less battery capacity per vehicle, but Tesla can't scale its engineering talent the same way.
Elon says upcoming efficiency improvements will allow a 40 kWh Cybercab pack, while emphasizing the limited number of smart, dedicated people.
If Tesla can deliver the service with a smaller pack, a given battery supply could support more vehicles. Engineering attention remains scarce, making product priorities as important as cell supply to the roll out. $TSLA
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There are efficiency improvements coming that will allow for a 40kWh Cybercab pack. We will make this in liquid silver, so the colors are not too monotonous.
The biggest thing most people fail to understand is that there are a very limited number of smart, dedicated people! They can only do so many things.
If we have to maintain a complex production line, supply chain and allocate engineering for Cybertruck, we can’t use those people or factory space and machinery for scaling Cybercab, which is the vehicle that will PROFOUNDLY transform the world of terrestrial transport!
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SpaceX's compute expansion may depend as much on delivering local benefits as on building faster data centers.
Elon says the backlash is temporary and describes Memphis businesses booming around its operations. Arizona puts that argument to a different test: proposed power-bill discounts and community funding, not benefits already delivered.
If residents see lower costs and stronger local businesses, expansion could become easier to negotiate. If they don't, construction speed alone won't resolve the opposition.
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Cheaper Robotaxi rides don't solve lost income. That's the transition problem @CernBasher wants the abundance debate to address.
He expects automation to lower transportation costs, but warns that lower prices alone won't protect people whose jobs disappear.
His suggestion: build ownership alongside wages, rather than assume future government support will arrive in time.
The opportunity is real. So is the challenge of helping people through the transition. $TSLA
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The more value automated systems create, the more important ownership, and the politics around it, could become.
@CernBasher argues that people can participate by building these tools or owning the businesses behind them. But he also warns that an economy where owners capture the gains while workers receive little is unsustainable.
For Tesla, scaling robots and autonomous vehicles could expand the business opportunity while intensifying debate over who benefits.
Technical success wouldn't remove that distribution problem; it could make it more urgent.
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Tesla's biggest opportunity may be selling productive capacity, not just vehicles. That's the implication of @CernBasher's automated-economy thesis.
Robotaxi targets the driving task across transportation, not merely the rideshare market.
Optimus aims to extend automation into physical work, while SpaceX develops the communications and compute infrastructure supporting it.
If those systems become reliable and economical, their market expands with the tasks they can perform. The constraint becomes useful work delivered at a competitive cost, not simply how many machines can be manufactured.
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Tesla's dedicated US chip capacity can reduce its manufacturing exposure without making the broader AI supply chain independent of Asia.
Elon points to Samsung's fab for Tesla's AI5 and AI6 designs, alongside TSMC's Arizona investments. Yet he estimates that even the best-case announced US buildout would amount to only around 10% of Asia's capacity.
If that gap persists, securing domestic production becomes a strategic advantage, but not a substitute for the scale and variety Asian manufacturers provide.
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Tesla doesn't need a national Robotaxi framework to keep expanding; it needs approvals market by market, following the same path Waymo has already opened.
That's the case from @thejefflutz and @CernBasher.
Cern expects no change to Tesla's Texas rollout and argues that lower transportation costs make autonomy attractive across party lines. Outside Texas, he says markets welcoming Waymo should also welcome Tesla once it shows its service is as safe or safer.
Jeff agrees the companies will coexist and doesn't see a federal framework as the immediate priority. The rollout remains a series of local safety and policy decisions, not a single national yes or no.
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Texas has a built-in brake on rapid, sweeping data-center restrictions: its Legislature only meets in regular session every two years.
That gives current projects more continuity than campaign rhetoric suggests.
@TeslaBoomerMama explains that regular lawmaking runs from January into May, with roughly a year and a half between sessions.
Special sessions can be called, but they're usually narrow and last no more than 30 days. New legislation also needs both chambers, and Republicans retain the Senate. A new governor can shape the debate, but turning it into a broad new regime takes legislative agreement and time.
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New restrictions on US AI data centers could strengthen SpaceX's compute business rather than stop the broader buildout.
@thejefflutz sees two outcomes if political resistance delays construction.
Projects that can move would take their demand and supply chains overseas. Scarcer supply could also raise the cost per unit of compute, benefiting sellers such as SpaceX.
@CernBasher points to SpaceX's projects across Mississippi, Arizona and Starbase, Texas. Politics will change where compute gets built and who profits from it, not eliminate demand.
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Ron Baron's position on Tesla and SpaceX is unusual: he says he would support a merger, or the companies staying independent.
That leaves the strategic choice with Elon Musk rather than making consolidation the investment thesis.
A merger could join vehicle manufacturing, robotics and autonomy with compute, launch and Starlink, but @RonBaronAnalyst isn't insisting those businesses must be combined. Either structure has his backing.
The key point is optionality: a deal is possible, not inevitable.
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Ron Baron's Terafab case is strategic, not just financial: America shouldn't depend on Taiwan alone for silicon, and Elon Musk is unusually able to build industrial capacity at scale.
Baron describes Terafab as a 100-million-square-foot building and calls Elon "probably the only person in this country" who can deliver projects at scale and attractive prices.
He says Elon has already helped reindustrialize the country and turned that capacity into large-scale job creation.
The Terafab claim isn't that chips are valuable software products; it's that domestic manufacturing itself is an asset.
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Every $SPCX and $TSLA Investor Needs To Watch This
Tesla's Robotaxi oversight has the same protection as Texas data centers: a new governor could appoint regulators but couldn't quickly replace entire boards or rewrite rules alone. That's @CernBasher's argument.
He points to staggered six-year terms, Senate confirmation and independent agencies. At the TCEQ, the first current commissioner's seat turns over in August 2027, with Senate confirmation not expected until 2029.
The Texas DMV also has a nine-member board appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Senate on staggered six-year terms. Political rhetoric can change overnight; these regulatory bodies were designed not to.
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NEWS: Elon Musk says Cybertruck production will end at Giga Texas around mid-2027, freeing the production space for increased Cybercab output.
That is a clearer manufacturing priority than a generic expansion announcement: Tesla would discontinue the Cybertruck and reuse its production line to scale a purpose-built robotaxi.
The change affects Giga Texas production only, not the wider factory.
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Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production
Terafab is moving fast
Giga Berlin's water story isn't consumption alone.
Tesla has recycled 100% of its process wastewater for two years, with 465 million liters returned to production instead of discharged.
@AndrThie says this gives the factory zero liquid discharge and describes the treatment system as unique in the automotive industry.
For a factory operating under close scrutiny over local water resources, process-water recycling is part of its operating model rather than an environmental add-on.
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This is a bigger deal than people might think! 100% process waste water recycling means ZERO liquid discharge.
Our waste water treatment facility is not just advanced but unique in automotive industry!
This is a key sustainability commitment to the region we are operating in!
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Texas isn't rejecting AI data centers, but the governor-elect wants their expansion on new terms.
For Tesla and SpaceX, the key question is how future approvals and community protections will apply to their next infrastructure projects.
Gina Hinojosa says she wants a strong working relationship with Elon Musk's companies alongside laws protecting rural Texans. She didn't announce a construction freeze or a specific permit pause in the clip.
Texas remains an AI infrastructure state; the rules around future expansion could become more consequential.
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Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, the first Democrat to win the state's governor's race in 36 years, in a new interview tonight on Elon Musk and AI data centers:
"We can have a strong working relationship with Elon Musk and his companies, but it has to be on our terms. We have always been a pro-business state, but data centers have moved into mostly rural communities and there are no rules to protect Texans, so the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans. We can have a strong economy and strong industry, and protections for Texans."
It sounds like Gina is not going to stop the construction of data centers that have already started are received all permits, but that there will be a pause on any new permits once she is Governor until some sort of "laws and protections" are put in place. This would be good news for SpaceX and other companies that have already secured permits for big data center capacity expansion in 2027. Beyond that, we'll see. Seems like these new elects are open to work with companies.
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Tesla's chip effort is moving at Tesla speed, not semiconductor speed.
Elon says TeraFab is going well, and @FutureAZA watched the related Fab Lab at Giga Texas go from bare ground to steel in days.
Brian saw the site still lit and dusty at midnight, with work continuing around the clock. A Korean supplier executive says early-morning US questions get answers within 30 minutes to an hour.
Tesla is treating chip development as a manufacturing race, not a conventional vendor-managed project. $TSLA
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