Six years ago, I was living in a college house with roommates when I built a portfolio tracker that measured your net worth in BTC. Today, I work for a multi-billion dollar public company where we think of Bitcoin as our hurdle rate. You can just do things.

Earlier this year, I asked @DarioAmodei to include organizations like @BitcoinBrink in Project Glasswing, Anthropic’s initiative using frontier AI to identify and fix vulnerabilities in critical software. Since then, we’ve seen vulnerabilities discovered in Coldcard, Lightning, and now Liquid today. Today, I’m thankful companies like @Strive support open-source Bitcoin development through our Bitcoin Stewardship Commitment. We are entering an important hardening phase for Bitcoin. As frontier AI models rapidly improve their ability to identify vulnerabilities, sustained investment in the engineers securing Bitcoin’s open-source infrastructure will become increasingly important. AI will find vulnerabilities faster than ever. A strong open-source security ecosystem will help make Bitcoin indestructible because of them.

Last week I hosted @LynAldenContact to discuss: 1. @SecScottBessent’s move to double long-duration Treasury buybacks 2. Issuing Digital Credit to acquire billions of dollars of BTC 3. The endgame for Bitcoin and the Dollar

We, we don't have to worry 'bout nothing 'Cause we got the fire and we're burning one hell of a something 'Cause we got the fire, fire, fire Yeah, we got the fire, fire, fire And we gonna let it burn, burn, burn, burn - Ellie Goulding

Hi @elonmusk. Curious what you think about these potential outcomes for Bitcoin, especially in a world where AI trends toward creating an abundance of almost everything while the supply of BTC remains fixed at 21 million.

Agree with @BitcoinPierre. Altcoins typically represent tokenized exposure to the fees or staking economics of a protocol. Their appreciation can largely be driven by speculation and a lack of liquidity. Bitcoin treasury companies are fundamentally different. Common equity represents a residual claim on a real balance sheet. If Bitcoin appreciates faster than the company’s cost of capital, amplification through USD obligations used to acquire additional Bitcoin can drive NAV per share to grow faster than Bitcoin. NAV outperformance does not guarantee stock price outperformance over the short term. The price paid relative to NAV matters enormously. If you buy at a large premium and that premium compresses, the stock can underperform Bitcoin even while NAV per share grows faster than Bitcoin. However, that premium or discount also creates something unique: capital markets optionality. At a sufficient premium to NAV, the company can issue common equity and buy Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin per share. Separately, it can issue USD obligations to acquire additional Bitcoin, increasing the amplification of its Bitcoin position. At a sufficient discount, it can potentially repurchase shares and increase Bitcoin per share. And these mechanisms can work together. A company can issue USD obligations to acquire Bitcoin and subsequently de-amplify through common equity issuance at attractive valuations, potentially maintaining similar amplification while increasing Bitcoin per share. This process does not require Bitcoin itself to appreciate. The logic for a premium is relatively simple. If an intelligently structured Amplified Bitcoin position would be expected by a Bitcoin bull to grow NAV per share faster than Bitcoin at a 1x NAV valuation, it’s reasonable for investors to pay a premium for that exposure. This is similar to Bitcoin futures, which frequently trade at a premium to spot because demand for leveraged long Bitcoin exposure can exceed demand for the other side of that trade. The difference is that the premium on Amplified Bitcoin can itself become productive. A higher premium creates greater optionality to increase Bitcoin per share, which can support a higher premium and create further Bitcoin per share growth. That reflexivity makes the question less about whether a premium should exist and more about how large that premium should be.

Bitcoin velocity is picking up. I explained to Joe how this effect would be expected along with the business cycle picking up, with the PMI levels acting as a potential gauge for Bitcoin velocity. 👀

Strong agree with Cory's final statement: "The Fed Put isn't really under your stock portfolio. It's under the debt system. And the long-term cost of protecting that system is the value of fiat money itself."