Big Tech is sitting on $3 TRILLION of AI commitments that don't show up in the capex numbers Bears call it hidden leverage... I'd say its hidden upside and it means the AI infra trade is bigger than most think This chart is showing off-balance sheet purchase obligations, leases and guarantees. Google alone has $707B of future purchase commitments. Microsoft carries $329B in leases, Oracle $261B, Meta $279B None of this sits in the reported capex numbers yet. It's all in ADDITION to the ~$1 trillion/year already flowing The Micheal Burris of the world say this is "hidden liabilities! leverage! this is how bubbles end!".. The way I see it though is a purchase obligation is a signed ORDER. Google didn't accidentally commit $707B, they contractually locked in future compute, chips and datacenter capacity for YEARS ahead. You only do that when you're terrified of not getting supply And if you think they won't be able to pay for it, then you're effectively saying the biggest and most successful companies of our lifetime are going to fail in the next 1-3 years... there's absolutely no way that will happen So what you should be asking is who RECEIVES that $3 trillion? Chips, memory, power equipment, data center builders, neoclouds. What the bears call Big Tech's hidden liability is the supply chain's contracted revenue backlog. Three trillion dollars of it, on top of the trillions in reported capex The capex numbers you see quoted all over X are the FLOOR, not the ceiling. The AI infra trade is bigger than the market is pricing I'm positioned all through the stack (compute, memory, power, neoclouds) and if you want to see my entire real-time portfolio you can check it out here: Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets