This morning I went discount shopping and initiated a position in $NBIS at $164 and bought more $SPCX at $141 I also sold my $AAPL at ATHs to fund these buys, so I still maintain my cash position I realize there are risks w/ higher rates/inflation & Anthropic financials But I continue to believe that the demand for compute is much much higher than the market realizes. I also believe that this compute remains scarce for years ahead, which means the pricing power of compute builders/owners remains strong Regardless of the markets random ARR estimates of Anthropic or OpenAI, the secular demand to turn energy into intelligence is not stopping. Whether this comes from frontier model providers, agent harnesses, open models or elsewhere, we will use more AI tomorrow than today And the more companies use AI, the more efficient and profitable they will become (we are seeing it in so many companies already). It will not be in a straight line but it will continue to be up and to the right... I know this for sure This is why I am continuing to build positions in those who are capable of turning energy into intelligence By the way, you can track all of these moves in real-time and see what else I hold in my portfolio inside Milk Road PRO here: Nebius is the one neocloud that has a strong balance sheet and could whether a big storm. They have $8B of cash and could even acquire some of the many neoclouds who will likely fail at discounted prices Even more so on this is SpaceX, with more than $100B in capital sitting on their balance sheet, they will imo be the biggest buyer of compute if things fall apart. Their numbers already look good at current build prices, if they were to get discount prices from distressed companies, that would be a bonus Higher rates makes financing compute a little more difficult, it doesn't make it impossible, not even close. which means compute businesses who manage their capital well can continue to flourish during these times. I think Nebius and SpaceX will be those two companies Maybe we go lower, maybe we don't. I dont know in the short-term, but in the long-term I think both of these companies are going much higher

Elon Musk replied to my post about $SPCX competition hurting the valuations of Coreweave & Nebius I explained how SpaceX is moving so fast that they're taking scarce resources and capital that Neoclouds need to succeed My guess is for Elon to reach 10GW by EOY'27 its not just from BUILDING compute, but from BUYING compute from distressed neoclouds Maybe this is why he replied "yikes" to @chamath's post about Coreweave yesterday too. Elon is on a mission to acquire as much compute as possible, one way or another As I've said many times, access to compute is the biggest moat for any company right now and not only is SpaceX going after as much as possible on earth, they are moving towards building compute in Space too Another product that SpaceX has a clear moat in, both in the transportation of GPUs into space, but also in the ability to beam it down back to earth via Starlink I explained this in the post that Elon replied "interesting" to I don't know exactly what part of these posts were specifically interesting to Elon, but it's clear that Elon is building to become the largest owner of compute in the world His plan is to either rent that out to the many enterprises who need access to compute (remember, compute = intelligence and intelligence = labour) with the optionality to use it for Tesla's Robotaxis and Humanoid Robots or SpaceX's Grok as the demand is needed His plan is to acquire as much compute as possible and then have the optionality to rent it or use it for the products his companies build What Elon is building with SpaceX and Tesla is by far the most ambitious endeavour in the world and I think these two companies (soon to be combined imo) will become the largest company in the world, by a large amount as this all plays out Both $TSLA and $SPCX remain core assets in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. Yes, I know every analyst will tell you they are both way overvalued, but I think they are wrong. In a world of AI, almost no one has a true moat. However, Tesla and SpaceX both have multi-year leads across the industries they compete in (or are inventing), they have the best engineers in the world and a leader that's relentless and always multiple steps ahead of others I think both of these companies are a must own in any portfolio. If you'd like to see my entire portfolio in real-time, you can track it here:

So here’s where things stand… Anthropic hit $16.8B in Q3, yet its spend via ramp has jumped significantly in October At the same time, OpenAI growing considerably fast in Q3, close to matching Anthropic Plus, we have SpaceX and Google showing up Not to mention, agent revenues like GrokBot, Muse or Dots won’t show up here as that usage is in the companies own harness So my best guess is Anthopic sits above $70B ARR today, OpenAI is likely $60B-$70B and xAI, Muse and others are around $10B ARR So let’s say we’re close to $140B-$145B with 2.5 months left in the year All of this while agent use cases are gaining traction and accelerating within the last month.. a big reason why revenues across all the AI companies are growing again Hard to see us not hit $200B ARR by the end of the year across Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Meta Meanwhile, compute companies are down 10-15% on the day Seem extremely irrational… I’d say the market is giving us another incredible buying opportunity here

Raymond James reiterates Strong Buy on $SPCX with a Street-high $800 price target! The reason is SpaceX's FAA filing for up to 456 Starship launches and 912 landings a year at Boca Chica At 60 V3 Starlink satellites per Starship, phase one's 100 flights a year means about 6,000 satellites. The full 456 flights means about 27,400 At 100 tons of payload and 100 kW per ton, Raymond James says 100 flights could deploy about 1 GW of orbital AI compute every year That's before counting the Florida pads (44 a year at LC-39A, 76 at SLC-37) and Louisiana's planned $100 billion 10-pad spaceport And Elon confirmed the upper stage catch is coming on the next flight, about 4-6 weeks out Starlink and Orbital Compute are the future products of SpaceX and the competition is many years behind these products (and the ability to deploy them) SpaceX is building the strongest moats in the world and that's why the stock deserves to be much higher than it is today

$SPCX isn't just building compute faster than every other neocloud It has something none of them have: OPTIONALITY on every GPU it deploys Every GW SpaceX brings online has two paths to revenue: 1. use it for Grok / xAI and capture the frontier model economics themselves, which generates more revenue than renting it out (Semianalysis estimates around $100B/GW) 2. rent it out to everyone else, at a premium The reason SpaceX can rent out their compute at a premium is twofold: 1. Speed. SpaceX builds faster than anyone on earth, so they can get compute into customers' hands faster than any competitor. AI labs that need compute NOW pay up for that 2. The backstop. SpaceX can sign short-term contracts at higher prices because if a customer backs out, that compute simply goes to their own AI models. No empty racks, no panic CoreWeave and Nebius can't take that risk, so they lock in most long-term deals at lower rents and fund the buildout with debt Which brings us to funding, which is where the gap between these companies gets even wider SpaceX doesn't have to fund the buildout (or the interest costs) from compute revenue alone. Starlink and launch cash flows can carry part of it. CoreWeave is paying 15% on unsecured bonds right now while SpaceX has diversified revenue streams across the whole company (and the best capital raiser alive running it) And the part almost nobody is pricing in: as compute moves to space in the next few years, SpaceX owns the cheapest path to win there too. The rockets that bring the compute up AND the connectivity that beams it back down That's why the chart above looks the way it does. Bloomberg Intelligence models SpaceX's AI ROIC going from negative 4% in 2026 to ~25% by 2030, above AWS and Google Cloud, while the pure neoclouds stay stuck in single digits No one is better positioned to dominate the compute business in the coming years than SpaceX This is why I still believe SpaceX is undervalued and why I've made it a core holding in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can see my entire real-time portfolio here:

As I've been saying... DeFi + Tokenized stocks is the next big catalyst for crypto there are WAY more stock investors than crypto investors what DeFi is going to unlock is the ability to permissionlessly DO THINGS with your favourite assets - lend and borrow against stocks - add perps to stocks - become a market maker for your fav stocks on AMMs and the list goes on and on If you want to bring stock investors onchain, we needed to first get their favourite assets onchain and then unlock new use cases and incentives Thats exactly what @aave is doing here with Coinbase stocks on @base Bullish DeFi

Is SpaceX competition hurting the valuation / credit risk of Neoclouds? $CRWV and $NBIS down 10%+ today, while $SPCX down just 2% (and UP on the month) The obvious trigger is credit risk, with CoreWeave's unsecured bonds yielding 15% But in the last week, Elon also confirmed that SpaceX will reach 2GW by November and potentially 2.6 GW by EOY. That's .6GW ahead of schedule and quickly becoming much bigger than Coreweave and Nebius Almost no one building compute is doing it ahead of schedule, but SpaceX is proving to be superior here on speed and is expecting close to 10GW by 2027 (And significantly more in years ahead, especially as we move to compute in Space) At the same time, Elon also mentioned earlier this week about the difficulty in executing this build out (said even SpaceX engineers are finding it hard) but also in the ability for companies to raise capital... the issue Coreweave is having now. But we know SpaceX and Elon has no issues in raising capital (and generating revenue from other sources too). Raising capital is what Elon excels at over anyone So I wonder if the market is starting to see that SpaceX is becoming a very big competitor to these neoclouds, taking demand sure... though I think there is plenty of demand to go around.. but more so taking resources and capital that other neoclouds need to scale SpaceX also has optionality to either rent out the compute or use it for xAI / Grok, which lowers risk even further to fund their compute buildout. It's also why SpaceX can charge a premium on their compute vs the other neoclouds, lowering risk even further I'm not saying SpaceX is the full reason for Coreweaves issues, but you gotta think this evolving competitive landscape of Elon entering the ring has to have something to do with it Even with this said, I'm still bullish on neoclouds as I think the demand remains endless, but I think SpaceX becomes the dominate neocloud by next year

Everyone's worried $NVDA is "losing share" to custom chips They're missing the point. UBS has Nvidia going from 7.5 GW of AI rack capacity in 2025 to 50.5 GW in 2030 That's ~7x in 5 years Yes, Nvidia's share shrinks on this chart. It goes from ~65% of all AI racks in 2025 to ~48% by 2030, as custom ASICs (Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium) grow from ~4 GW to 45 GW But share is the wrong number to watch. The total market goes from 11.5 GW to 104.5 GW, roughly 9x A slightly smaller slice of a pie that's 9x bigger is still a monster. Nvidia adds ~11 GW in 2027 ALONE, which is about the size of the entire AI rack market in 2025 And the competitors growing doesn't mean they're catching up on the product SemiAnalysis just benchmarked Vera Rubin on agentic inference. On one test it delivered ~30x the throughput per dollar of AMD's MI355X, and even beat Nvidia's own GB300 by 1.4-3x at the speeds most providers actually serve models Hyperscalers build ASICs to lower costs on their own workloads. Everyone else (the labs, the neoclouds, sovereign AI, enterprises) still buys Nvidia because it's the best product you can get And here's the kicker: even 104 GW won't be enough SpaceX alone is targeting 10-20 GW of compute by the end of 2027. That's equal to 20-40% of all the AI racks UBS expects the world to deploy in 2027, for one company. Now add OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, Microsoft and every agent we haven't even launched yet Demand isn't the constraint here, supply is $NVDA remains a core holding inside my Milk Road PRO portfolio. If you want to see what else I hold, you can check out my real-time portfolio here: Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets

the answer is: because its a worldwide bond crisis Bitcoin was built to give you an out when the tradfi system breaks So every time there are cracks in the system, whether it be bank failures or the bond market breaking Bitcoin sniffs out that the only answer is to manipulate the currency through debasement (in one way or another) Bad news is good news for Bitcoin long-term

These numbers are insane! A single Starship launch with Starlink satellites will soon add >$1 BILLION of ARR to $SPCX ...And Elon expects them to hit hourly launches in 2-3 years! Here's the math: Starship will carry 60 V3 Starlink satellites per flight, each with roughly 1 Tbps of downlink That's 60 Tbps of new capacity per launch, more than 20x what a Falcon 9 delivers today Starlink is currently doing ~$17B in annualized revenue on ~800 Tbps of capacity, which works out to roughly $21M of revenue per Tbps 60 Tbps x $21M = ~$1.3B of annualized revenue capacity from ONE launch (wow). And here's the part nobody is pricing in: Elon said yesterday he expects DAILY Starship launches in 2027 and hourly launches within 2 to 3 years Yes, revenue per bit falls as capacity scales, but Elon's own math says comms revenue can still exceed $200B/year even if price per gigabit drops 10x I'm not sure anyone is ready for the size of the revenues SpaceX is about to generate, especially if you consider that these revenues have nothing to do with the 60+GW of compute they expect to bring online in the next 5 years! Of course, $SPCX is an asset I hold in my Milk Road PRO portfolio, where you can track 5 analysts' real-time portfolios and research with live trade notifications It's just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out), learn more here: Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets

WOW! Ark thinks SpaceX hits 66GW of compute by 2031 and Elon says that would be "disappointingly low" This is why $SPCX will become the most valuable company in the world by 2030 Compute is the most important resource and no one is building it faster than SpaceX They'll end this year with over 2 GW and Ark has them ~30x-ing that in the next 5 years by building compute on Earth AND in space And here's why Elon is disappointed: Ark is actually BELOW his own guidance Ark has SpaceX at 7.5 GW by the end of 2027. On the Q2 call, Elon said they'd be "closer to 10GW than 5GW" by then, with 15-20 GW of power infrastructure behind it Not only does Elon have the best hardware team in the world, they also own the transportation to space, which is the next frontier of compute (unlimited energy, built in cooling, less degradation bc of no gravity, etc.) That's the part people miss. Compute in orbit is a launch problem before it's a chip problem, and SpaceX controls the launch Here's the perfect example: Google's first space compute test (Project Suncatcher, 4 TPUs on a Planet satellite) goes up on October 1st... on a SpaceX Falcon 9 So even if Google wants to compete in space compute, they have to pay SpaceX to get there. And SpaceX starts launching its own Starmind data center satellites next year SpaceX is worth ~$2T today, 7th biggest company in the world. My bet is it's #1# by 2030, as long as compute stays the scarcest resource in AI (which I think it does) Of course, $SPCX is an asset I hold in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can track my real-time portfolio, plus 4 other analysts, with live trade notifications for just $1 here: Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets

$UNI is up 195% in the last 40 days Tokenized stocks is the new narrative for crypto The good thing about this narrative is that it's also the next breakthrough technology for finance This isn't just narrative, its actually upgrading the financial system First we tokenized dollars via stablecoins, now we tokenize stocks

Uniswap now settles more trades/month than two US stock exchanges And it's done it with basically ZERO stocks on it Uniswap just started onboarding the world's most popular assets (stocks) and its volumes will balloon as a result Tokenized stocks is how DEXs eat the world (here's why) On September 17 the SEC granted a five-year "Innovation Exemption" that lets qualifying venues trade tokenized versions of US listed stocks onchain through permissioned AMMs, without registering as a stock exchange Uniswap already built exactly that with its v4 permissioned pools launched with partners like Superstate and Securitize, and tokenized SpaceX, Apple, Tesla and NVIDIA are already available So the DEX that's already out-trading two stock exchanges is about to get access to the entire US stock market But you might be wondering why anyone would trade on a DEX if they can already do it on a normal brokerage or exchange? When you buy a stock on Nasdaq, Nasdaq matches the trade. The actual settlement happens a day later through a separate clearing system On a DEX the trade and the settlement are the same transaction. It happens in seconds, 24/7, and any app can plug into that liquidity through an API Stock exchanges still shut down every weekend while Uniswap never closes. And of course, anyone in the world with a crypto wallet (or any agent) can access Uniswap, this isn't true with stock exchanges. As Brian Armstrong said: Coinbase tokenized stocks are the best version of stocks, not just the best version of tokenized stocks becuase tokenized stocks are simply better And finally, DeFi is building around tokenized stocks to give anyone access to lending, borrowing and more with your stocks. DeFi is giving more utility to the stocks many of us already own Tokenized stocks and DEXs will be a huge story in finance for the next few years. I've been positioned for the onchain shift for a while holding crypto equities like $HOOD, $COIN and $GLXY. Also one of our analysts at Milk Road PRO added $UNI just before it ran to $10. You can track our real-time portfolios here:

Did you guys listen when I told you to buy $CRDO? The stock is now up massively from where I first started buying and it’s up another 8% today. You can check out my entire portfolio and see exactly what I’m buying here.

$UNI is up 195% in the last 40 days Tokenized stocks is the new narrative for crypto The good thing about this narrative is that it's also the next breakthrough technology for finance This isn't just narrative, its actually upgrading the financial system First we tokenized dollars via stablecoins, now we tokenize stocks

Uniswap now settles more trades/month than two US stock exchanges And it's done it with basically ZERO stocks on it Uniswap just started onboarding the world's most popular assets (stocks) and its volumes will balloon as a result Tokenized stocks is how DEXs eat the world (here's why) On September 17 the SEC granted a five-year "Innovation Exemption" that lets qualifying venues trade tokenized versions of US listed stocks onchain through permissioned AMMs, without registering as a stock exchange Uniswap already built exactly that with its v4 permissioned pools launched with partners like Superstate and Securitize, and tokenized SpaceX, Apple, Tesla and NVIDIA are already available So the DEX that's already out-trading two stock exchanges is about to get access to the entire US stock market But you might be wondering why anyone would trade on a DEX if they can already do it on a normal brokerage or exchange? When you buy a stock on Nasdaq, Nasdaq matches the trade. The actual settlement happens a day later through a separate clearing system On a DEX the trade and the settlement are the same transaction. It happens in seconds, 24/7, and any app can plug into that liquidity through an API Stock exchanges still shut down every weekend while Uniswap never closes. And of course, anyone in the world with a crypto wallet (or any agent) can access Uniswap, this isn't true with stock exchanges. As Brian Armstrong said: Coinbase tokenized stocks are the best version of stocks, not just the best version of tokenized stocks becuase tokenized stocks are simply better And finally, DeFi is building around tokenized stocks to give anyone access to lending, borrowing and more with your stocks. DeFi is giving more utility to the stocks many of us already own Tokenized stocks and DEXs will be a huge story in finance for the next few years. I've been positioned for the onchain shift for a while holding crypto equities like $HOOD, $COIN and $GLXY. Also one of our analysts at Milk Road PRO added $UNI just before it ran to $10. You can track our real-time portfolios here:

BlackRock just published a paper saying AI is the most underappreciated demand driver for crypto (holy shit) This quote was killer: "AI represents machine-native intelligence, digital assets represent machine-native money" These two themes have been treated as separate trades With the famous tweet: "If you're in crypto, pivot to AI" But I've long said that a bet on crypto is a bet on AI and that's starting to play out Blackrock notes 2 specific areas where these technologies converge: 1. Agentic Commerce requires machine-native payment rails As AI agents start actually DOING things (buying data, booking travel, renting compute), they need a way to pay. And that's where it gets interesting An AI agent can't easily walk into a bank and open an account. Card rails need human onboarding, charge merchant fees that make a sub-penny API call pointless, and take days to fully settle and clear disputes A stablecoin wallet runs 24/7, settles in seconds, and doesn't care if the owner is a person or a piece of software 2. Compute is emerging as a new and potentially large market for digital assets As compute becomes one of the largest in-demand products in the world, BlackRock thinks standardized, tokenized claims on compute become a real digital asset market, with agents shopping for GPUs and paying per job. There are already early signs of Compute markets and digital assets converging with @USDai_Official, who uses stablecoins to provide financing for GPUs and uses the interest to give yield to USDAI stablecoin holders As the compute market expands, this market should have significant growth across the digital assets ecosystem Crypto has long been judged/valued based on human use cases, but I think it needs to be looked at as financial technology for AI, rather than humans (though it will work for both) Companies like Coinbase and Circle are already going all in on becoming the payment structure for AI and so to are many DeFi protocols. If you want to see what assets I hold in my portfolio to capture the agentic financial upside, you can check out my portfolio here: Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI, crypto and markets