Memory Liquidation The AI memory market is not the telecom boom, and it is not the housing bubble. What we are seeing now is a leverage event: too much leverage, too much crowding, and too much exposure piled into the same trade, all of which now need to be unwound. That matters because a real supply crunch in memory has been amplified by positioning, acute shortages and sharply higher prices tied to AI infrastructure demand are real. Yes the easy money in the AI trade has been made! Let’s be explicit about what that means. Parabolic charts are not proof of durable fundamentals; they are often evidence of momentum, leverage, and borrowed conviction feeding on themselves. When a trade gets this crowded, price stops reflecting only supply and demand and starts reflecting how much fast money is trapped in the move. The underlying AI demand story is still real, and the fundamental supply-demand imbalance still exists. AI demand has forced companies to fight for dwindling memory supplies, while chipmakers prioritized higher-margin data-center chips and memory prices spiked sharply over the past year. But that does not mean every price swing is fundamental. Narrative follows price: when memory names surge, investors discover scarcity; when they break, they suddenly discover China risk or efficiency gains. That is why the analogies to the 1990s telecom boom and the housing bubble are only partly useful. In those episodes, supply ran ahead of demand, too much fiber, too many houses. Here, demand has outrun supply, but the stock market layered excessive leverage on top of a real bottleneck. As Graham observed, the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long run. Right now, the vote is being driven by crowding, leverage, and forced selling. Over time, the market will weigh the underlying AI demand and the still-tight supply picture on their merits. What is being liquidated is not the existence of demand. It is the leverage wrapped around the story. Yes Parabolic charts that amplify crowded leverage one way bets should be avoided.

Larry Goldberg @TeslaLarry feels that the current bear market in tech/ai has not run its course, will not be helped by great earnings this week or even great guidance. He feels that the turnaround might take one or two quarters of proof that this AI spend isn't just going to go "poof." What say you?