Market is making a MASSIVE mistake selling $NBIS right now.
According to their estimates, Nebius is expected to go from just $1.25 billion in annualized revenue run rate in 2025 to nearly $8 billion in 2026, $16.8 billion in 2027, $30 billion in 2028, and an absolutely INSANE $71.7 billion by 2030. We're talking about a company that could potentially grow its annualized revenue run rate by more than 57 TIMES in just FIVE years. And even after reaching nearly $30 billion in 2028, William Blair still expects the business to grow another 69.6% in 2029 and 41% in 2030.
Now, I know what everyone is thinking. What about the recent selloff? What about the debt? What about the enormous capital expenditures required to build all this infrastructure? These are legitimate concerns, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. The market is clearly becoming increasingly concerned about how neocloud companies will finance their expansion, particularly as investors begin questioning whether the returns on all this spending will justify the investment. But here's where I think investors are making a HUGE mistake. They're treating every neocloud company as if they're operating the exact same business with the exact same economics.
They're NOT.
Nebius is building a full stack AI cloud platform, and what makes the company particularly interesting is how it's expanding across multiple layers of the AI ecosystem. They own and operate massive GPU clusters, data centers, networking infrastructure and the cloud software needed to train and run AI models at scale. But beyond that, they've also acquired Tavily, which provides real time web search capabilities for AI agents, and developed Nebius Token Factory, an inference platform that allows developers and enterprises to deploy AI models at scale. They've also strengthened their inference capabilities through Eigen AI and Clarifai's technology. And that's just the beginning. Nebius Group also owns Avride, which is developing autonomous vehicles and delivery robots in partnership with Uber, and TripleTen, an education technology business. The company also holds significant stakes in ClickHouse, one of the leading real time analytics database companies, and Toloka, which provides data and evaluation services for AI development. Now, not all of these businesses directly contribute to Nebius's core AI cloud revenue, but what excites me is the amount of OPTIONALITY the company has across the entire AI ecosystem. We're talking about exposure to AI infrastructure, model training, inference, AI agents, data analytics, and autonomous systems, all while the company continues securing major contracts with customers like Microsoft and Meta and expanding its global infrastructure footprint.
And what's particularly interesting to me is HOW the company is financing this growth. Nebius has already demonstrated that it can secure financing backed by deployed GPUs and contracted customer cash flows, including its $775 MILLION secured debt facility. That's an important distinction because there is a MASSIVE difference between borrowing billions to speculate on future demand and financing infrastructure supported by contracted demand. Now, does that eliminate the risks? Absolutely NOT. Nebius still needs to execute, deploy enormous amounts of capital, manage its debt, and ensure that the economics of providing compute remain attractive as the industry scales. But I think investors are focusing so heavily on the risks that they're completely overlooking the potential scale of the business. And here's my biggest question. Has the long term demand for AI compute suddenly disappeared? Have enterprises stopped adopting AI? Have frontier labs stopped needing more infrastructure? Have hyperscalers suddenly decided they don't need additional capacity?
NO, If anything, the underlying demand for AI compute continues to grow as models become more capable, inference workloads expand, and AI adoption accelerates across the economy. The industry still needs enormous amounts of infrastructure, and companies capable of delivering that capacity efficiently are positioned to capture a meaningful portion of that spending. What HAS changed is market sentiment. Investors have become increasingly concerned about AI infrastructure debt, capital expenditures, and whether the current pace of investment is sustainable. And those concerns have triggered a brutal selloff across the sector, including Nebius and CoreWeave. But from my perspective, the fundamental reason I invested in Nebius hasn't changed. The company is still pursuing an enormous opportunity, demand for AI compute remains strong, and its long term growth potential is still very much intact.
Show more