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Melvin
@MelvinInvests
AI Analyst @MilkRoadAI | Finding opportunities across AI, photonics, defense, space, and tech.
Joined June 2026
239 Following    33.6K Followers
This selloff is a lot closer to the bottom than we think. According to Jefferies, over the past 10 trading days, its clients have been net sellers of more than $1B worth of technology stocks on 7 separate days. This chart tracks the buying and selling activity of Jefferies’ clients over a rolling 20 day period. When the purple line is above zero, investors are buying more than they’re selling. When it’s below zero, they’re selling more than they’re buying. Right now, that number has collapsed to approximately negative $11B, making this one of the most extreme periods of technology selling we’ve seen in the past two years. For comparison, even during the major selloffs earlier in 2025 and 2026, the selling pressure wasn’t consistently this severe. And remember, this is just one investment bank’s trading activity. This also helps explain why companies across semiconductors, memory, power, and AI infrastructure have been getting absolutely crushed despite reporting strong earnings and continued demand. A lot of this selling isn’t necessarily happening because the fundamentals have changed. Large institutions are reducing exposure, managing risk and raising cash. When everyone starts selling at the same time, even the best companies get dragged down. Now, does this mean the bottom is definitely here? Of course not. Nobody knows that but historically, when selling becomes this extreme, it can be a sign that we’re getting closer to exhaustion. Eventually, the forced selling slows down, buyers return, and stocks can recover. My personal view is that we’re likely getting much closer to a bottom, I’m not changing my long term outlook on AI because hedge funds and institutions are aggressively selling technology stocks. The demand for compute, memory, power, and AI infrastructure hasn’t suddenly disappeared. I’m investing with years in mind, not weeks.
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