Michael Taylor
@Mike_Taylor1972
PM of $PINK Shares for the Cure. Healthcare Hedgefund Manager for past 20 yrs. Scientist, Virologist, Humanitarian, Troglodyte w/a keyboard.
602 Following 63.4K Followers
I have felt this in:
2001 Internet bubble
2007 Housing bubble
2012 EU debt bubble
2020 Covid crisis
2026 AI bubble
The same situation where the math does not work.
It is RARE and it is NOW.
We are now seeing demand destruction due to price.
2027 IMHO will be BLOTTO
@Seawolfcap @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough @profplum99
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A political strategist texted me some very interesting data points on political engagement. One that caught my interest is the decline of Bluesky. In an election yr one might estimate a ramp of engagement.
The decline is surprising.
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$BNTC - IMHO the FDA mtg minutes are very +++
(Interpretations of the 8k 👇)
- FDA needs 1y nat history control grp
- P3 Single arm study
- P3 6mo interim endpt
This will likely enroll V fast and readout in 2H27 @.6mo.
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The other late-night musings (Phoebe is up and does not feel well).
GRAVITY does not exist.
Time is slower near masses, creating a gradient that gives the illusion of gravity. The pressure u feel on your feet right now is the gradient of time.
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Just one more drag before we go…
(Comic relief to a violent market)
$UTHR IMHO has a very big new product story in 2027.
...and maybe a pig that solves organ transplant.
Have to imagine there are many 60-something’s who have mismatched duration.
Ran into a guy who’s owned long bonds for the last 5 years.
He says it’s worse than divorce. He’s lost half his money but he’s still married.
$SMMT $AZ partnering for what might be among the new stds of care in Lung (and many more) cancers.
$2bn preferred convert.
Meaningful data to come in squamous lung cancer in 4Q.
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1/ Wall Street is starting to put numbers around the AI question @Mike_Taylor1972 and @KeithMcCullough raised on @inspiredmoneyfm:
Can AI generate enough revenue to justify the trillions being spent to build it?
The numbers are strikingly similar. 🧵
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$AQRT has a P2 go/nogo study in Vitiligo, a pigmenting autoimmune disorder, in 4Q26.
This is a $1bn mkt (doubles TAM) and IMHO zero is priced in
IMHO this >2x the TAM for ZORYVE topical.
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$NVDA vs $CSCO (circa 2000) are not parallels.
$CSCO had an order book +70% growth into 2001 and by the end was -30%.
$NVDA has an orderbook +100%... but has financed much of it, and those chips ARE the collateral, if demand falls, the value of collateral falls.
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This is THE AI problem that keeps me up at night while enterprise takes in-house data ctr and $ overall is materially neg while capex is $$$$ 4x the cost of 2 yrs ago.
@Hedgeye
This could be a problem: Goldman sensitivity table shows that in a worst case scenario where hyperscaler ROIC on capex is 0 (token costs collapse, token demand goes to open models, etc) they still need to spend $920BN every year just to cover depreciation and running costs
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The smartest guy in energy (secret as to who) has shared with me that US Refiners are already maxed on Diesel production (for export). So there is little policy that can move the needle - yes, we can ban export to lower the US price at the margin.
Little can be done for Gasoline
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Last week on @Hedgeye with @KeithMcCullough we talked about just this: we are on the cusp of meaningful Neg Pricing Power for AI.
This IMHO is the GREAT risk to the model.
The conversation is free on youtube rt now.
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oh look @Mike_Taylor1972 New release by Anthropic and OpenAI with lower pricing.
$PCT
EU: the “far right”, cancelled, de-banked, maligned and loathed by the MSM is now also the biggest voting block, by a mile.
…maybe it’s the silent majority waking up?
On @hedgeye this week w me and @KeithMcCullough
"people dont know it but we're in a currency alliance with Japan"
Next Thurs Trump goes to China to make a deal.
There will be a lot of "winning"
And a decent shot IRAN gets turned off.
take note, it's a big deal.
The bubble is percolating.
11AM LIVE with Mike T! @Mike_Taylor1972
REAL CONVERSATION: The AI Bubble and the Market Risks Ahead via @hedgeye
