The ETH Thesis
- Credibly neutral store of value is the only $100T+ opportunity on the planet. At just $300B mkt cap, that’s 333x upside
- The only 2 coins competing for credibly neutral store of value are ETH and BTC. Everything else is a company coin (insiders pumping their bags, tied to a jurisdiction, heavily reliant on biz dev and top down marketing)
- Ethereum is the most socially scalable ecosystem in crypto. Serious builders do not want to build an app on your L1, they want more control and better economics. The Robinhood Chain L2 proves this, growing the network effect of EVM and distributing ETH. ETH OGs are now coming out of the woodwork to use Robinhood Chain too, further strengthening the network effect
If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to convince you sorry
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We spent 10+ years making Ethereum safe for institutions
Now we need to lock in and make it fun and good for new people to get rich
Credible neutrality means both
Great time to build and invest on Base
- Values aligned with Ethereum and the crypto ethos of credible neutrality
- No token yet so there’s an organic community building and using products for more than just money and token likely coming at some point
- Good balance of short term and long term opportunities, though more embrace of degen culture needed
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Crypto’s main benefit:
more people win
invest early
own the upside
build without permission
turn conviction into financial freedom
Access used to be for insiders only. Not anymore
This is truth and there’s still a MASSIVE opportunity to see through all the BS and win big from this
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Don’t buy into anyone else’s narrative. They are gaslighting you. Create your own narratives that you know to be true
Anyone who has built something from nothing feels this. This is the crypto ethos too
The worst founder type is the Silicon Valley worshipper that feels like they need to have a brand name VC invest, be on TBPN or any of that other stupid shit to win. Thats loser energy anyone real knows that
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Only 1 confirmation needed. Yourself
Don’t buy into anyone else’s narrative. They are gaslighting you. Create your own narratives that you know to be true
Anyone who has built something from nothing feels this. This is the crypto ethos too
The worst founder type is the Silicon Valley worshipper that feels like they need to have a brand name VC invest, be on TBPN or any of that other stupid shit to win. Thats loser energy anyone real knows that
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I'm excited to be joining Polymarket as Chief Growth Officer.
Most people still think of prediction markets as a place to trade on elections or sports. IMO that's the smallest version of what this becomes.
Every price on Polymarket is a question the world actually wants answered. Will this policy pass. Will this drug get approved. Will this deal close.
Answered by people with real money on the line instead of a poll or a pundit. That's not a niche product. That's a new layer of truth for how the world prices uncertainty, and it's still early.
@shayne_coplan built something genuinely rare, and I'm here to help him scale it to the world.
PS we're hiring world-class talent. Reach out to me directly.
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If you think getting rich quick trading animal tokens is how to win, you’ve already lost
Know who you are and stay true to it. Believe in something more than money. Build something you care about
Basic stuff really and sounds like a broken record. But the timeline lacks timeless content. Try to only post stuff that 20 yrs from now my kids can look back on and be proud of
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There’s many ways to earn on Grail:
- Trading gtokens
- Buying packs
- Holding gtokens and digital cards
- Arbing the offchain and onchain price
1124 accounts are profitable to date, earning $944K in total profit
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it's base's 3rd birthday today and i wanted to take the time to respond to this. i agree with your feedback on perception and as i reflect on it, i'd trace it back to three things:
1. we've taken "first party bets," the canonical example of this is our bet on social, including leaning in with farcaster and zora. this was an explicit bet to try and kickstart more growth for the ecosystem. and it worked in some ways (DEGEN was downstream of our work on farcaster!), but didn't in others. and i think with regards to the perception challenge, you mention, it created a real feeling that we were privileging some folks over others. from where i sit, this was us focusing on a specific strategy (social), but i think from the outside it read as focusing on specific projects and reality is perception. lots of lessons learned!
2. we've done an imperfect job of creating clarity for builders + contributors to the ecosystem on what we want them to drive. we've invested some in tools for making this more explicit (like where any app can see their impact and the leaderboard: but there's lots more to do.
3. base is an effort to build a decentralized network that's incubated out of a centralized business. we've been pioneering a lot of the ground around what that means. and i think that the reality is that it's really hard to build a decentralized network... without being fully decentralized and having folks have real skin in the game to build it with us. it's also a real challenge to manage perception of what is coinbase vs. what is base and how do they differ. lots of learnings here too!
my latest thinking on each of these:
1. we're going to keep making bets, but i think one lesson for me is that we shouldn't be making bets on *issuance* of new assets. getting into issuance inevitably creates a feeling of us privileging certain asset types over others. the core role of base should be to *be the market*, not be the creator of new assets in that market. this should
2. the metrics that base cares about are: (1) active funded wallets; (2) trading volume; (3) TVL; (4) payments volume. we're going to be rolling out tools that help teams better see how they are driving these and then use these to recognize and reward folks more explicitly. we can't help teams find PMF - that's up to the founders themselves - but when things are working, we can find ways to pour more gasoline on the fire.
3. continuing to decentralize the network is a top priority. lots of work to do here!
thanks for the good feedback and building on base. lots more work to do!
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With love and sorry for stating the obvious:
Too much chasing going on. And chasing is universal. 20 year olds with no money chasing pump and dumps, KOLs chasing engagement here and “prestige”VCs chasing attention on Bloomberg is the same shit
We all chase to an extent but it can easily turn soulesss if you lack self awareness
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Human nature is to overweight people we know and underweight people we don’t know.
The truth is there is so much to benefit from people we don’t know when there’s spiritual alignment and the vibe is right.
Crypto and the internet are great tools to align with our people 🙏
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Ethereum leadership has been overly paternalistic at times in a way that’s undeniably hurt adoption
Paternalism is a tricky thing bc when you care about people you tend to want to try to protect them. And in a space riddled with greed, copycats and pump and dumps, exercising caution is reasonable
But trusting the universe and embracing people trying things, learning and leveling up is a better approach than strongly projecting a view that speculation is bad on them
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The main problem with Base right now is the perception that’s it’s for insiders. The core team has boosted projects from people they know instead of projects that have organic traction and good vibes like DEGEN
The truth is most of the competing chains are truly insider pump and dumps, they just have done a better job managing perception to look more grassroots
If you look at pure app innovation, Base still winning and there’s a major upside case with future breakout apps and an airdrop but anyone in the trenches who’s frustrated rn completely justified to go over to Robinhood chain or elsewhere until something changes and it feels like anyone can win big on Base
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A beautiful base:0x4ed4e862860bed51a9570b96d89af5e1b0efefed story! I think we’re underestimating how many people got into crypto thanks to degen.
The first two steps in crypto is the same for all of us:
1) Try to get rich quick
2) Lose
Then the path diverges:
3a) Leave, “crypto is a scam”
3b) Understand that everyone wants to get rich quick, extract to get quick money and attention for yourself
3c) Encourage people to learn, believe in something, level up. Hold BTC and ETH, use products you find interesting, build
3b is for losers, 3c is for winners
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“One of the biggest problems in the world:
how do we know what’s true?”
- Nick Tomaino on the Brice Butler Podcast
“Believe in something”
- Nick Tomaino on the Brice Butler Podcast
“Top decile” DPI on a 9 year old venture capital fund is 1.18x. That’s terrible
1confirmation net DPI since we started:
Fund I (2017): 7.08x
Fund II (2019): 3.25x
Fund III (2022): 0.19x
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