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Overly Trev
@OverlyTrev
I make Content and give opinions on Tesla, FSD, SpaceX, and more. Just a guy who loves Tech and wants to learn how it could shape our future!
863 Following    6.4K Followers
Gary’s going to be confused by the end of 2026 when there are around 1,000 Robotaxis in the Tesla fleet. He’s going to be extremely confused next year when there are thousands more and likely take the lead for AV’s. Tesla isn’t slowing down robotaxi they’re ramping faster than any other AV operator has ever ramped since its inception. It only seems slow because they’re at the beginning of the exponential growth curve.
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I’ve argued for months there is some fundamental reason TSLA’s planned unsupervised autonomy rollout has slowed from addressing half the U.S. population by end of 2025, to doubling fleet size every month (articulated after 1Q), to its current planned growth rate of +10%/week, as articulated by @aelluswamy on the 2Q earnings call. While we all understand the need for $TSLA to go slow given the damage even one headline would cause if a Tesla operated by FSD hit someone, $TSLA stock continues to underperform because investors are losing faith that FSD will ever be able to scale from its current roster of 90-100 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors. Meanwhile, $GOOG’s Waymo continues to operate 4,000 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors and complete 500K unsupervised autonomous rides per week.
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Will we have student drivers testing in 5 years? Yeah, most likely. Even with the scale of robotaxis, AI, humanoids, and self-driving vehicles, I still think there will be a lot of manually driven cars. Will babies born this year in 2026 need to learn to drive in 2041? I highly doubt it. There will still be manually driven cars, but also millions of robotaxis and millions of humanoids. For some people it won't make sense to own a car, especially one that doesn’t drive itself. Personal autonomy will be very abundant, and by then the script will have flipped from “I don’t trust self-driving cars” to “I only trust self-driving cars.” Our world is going to change so much in the next 5 years but change exponentially in the next 15.
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We will widen the Grok Bot beta after we fix basic issues with the early beta and release Grok 4.6 later this week
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I will selfishly say I think premium plus subscribers should be able to use Grok Bot but I’m sure it will get released to us eventually. However the application of this is incredible. Being able to assign tasks in the background and even teach it a new skill it can then do automatically. Really awesome to see Grok evolving from just an LLM.
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Grok Bot is in beta and available today for SuperGrok Heavy, Cursor Ultra, and Cursor Teams Premium subscribers on desktop and iOS.
The ability to make a colored light bar will definitely be useful for robotaxi, to help let people know which Cybercab is the right one to get in. They could flash a certain color or make a certain pattern! I know other AV like Waymo and Zoox do this in their own way too.
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The cart corral strikes again. V14 in particular has a huge weakness with stationary objects behind the vehicle. Idk if it’s a lapse in training data or what. I actually would assume so because V14 lite also has this issue and it was distilled from V14. Definitely something I hope is a part of one of those 7 new improvement tracks with V15.
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my mom sent me another FSD clip… 😭
There has been some controversy about Tesla limiting their chargers on the website to Tesla owners only. I don’t see an issue with this. They’re likely doing this because supply is in high demand and they want to prioritize their customers first, which they should. It’s hilarious to see people have a problem with this, as if every other company doesn’t prioritize themselves the same way. Imagine a brand-new owner being told by Tesla, “Sorry, we’re sold out of the Wall chargers because we gave those to other EV owners.” That makes no sense. If you want a Tesla charger, buy a Tesla. If not, go to Lowe’s or Best Buy and get one there.
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Tesla now has 186 Model Y's registered with the Texas DMV! I would speculate Tesla Robotaxi now has well over 200 registered in total as we do not know how many are in Florida or any other states.
🚗 Tesla Robotaxi just registered 5 new 2026 Model Ys with the Texas DMV — now 186 in its TX fleet.
There will be two eras in the near term for Robotaxi: pre-Cybercab and Cybercab. Every other AV operator has their official Robotaxi vehicle for service. Tesla is just using Model Ys, the same ones I use every day to get around. Once Tesla releases the Cybercab into the fleet, everything changes. It is Tesla’s first vehicle built from the ground up as a fully autonomous Robotaxi. Cost per mile goes down, efficiency goes way up, no controls, no HD mapping, with an annual run rate of over 125,000 (based on Q2 deck) that will increase to over 1M over time. It is the safest, most affordable vehicle you can travel in, and it’s not even close. People are underestimating this vehicle.
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Game changer for robotaxi. In 2028 when the summer Olympics are in LA Tesla @robotaxi should livestream the Olympics in Cybercabs so you never miss anything. Make an exclusive deal or do whatever you have to do. The experience will be unbeatable, there will be nothing like it
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You will be able to watch live sports in 4k or movies or games or productivity!
The best part about Tesla FSD is that one day every car they make will be 100% fully autonomous and there is quite literally nothing any hater or doubter can say or do about it. I still believe AI4 will accomplish Unsupervised for personal vehicles, although there will need to be legislation. AI5 and beyond will just be basically “perfect”. Also will be used for inference among other things. The future is going to be amazing.
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Sure @Apple I switched to Apple one family plan because I was paying what I thought was way too much for Spotify duo and Apple TV separately. Why are we going up by $2 you guys spending too much CapEx on Siri? 😂
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Tesla showing off @Starlink integrated into the Tesla Cybercab. It’s amazing how seamless the integration is, and it’s even in the same golden color and follows the body and shape of the vehicle without sticking out. Self driving robots connected anywhere on Earth, incredible!
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However this is not safety critical, it is convenience. This also happens with literally every other AV operator. The “leader” Waymo has issues even though it’s “L4” it still gets stuck even after 6 years of operation. Yes they started giving paid rides in 2020 and even today they still have issues. Sawyer took a Waymo ride in Nashville and it got stuck and had to call support. Happens all the time. The difference is Tesla is going to make this work everywhere without HD maps or extra sensors. We have this luxury of using it on our personal cars. Tesla will figure all of these issues out. It is great to give Constructive feedback to the robotaxi teams. Streaks are working exactly as they should so we definitely disagree there.
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This is a good point to realize. Not sure if you saw my robotaxi review the other day from Austin. This was a perfect example of me NOT being able to disengage because I was a customer in the back, and my 2.1 mile drive took 34 minutes as it looped around my hotel in city traffic trying to figure out what to do. In a supervised FSD drive that would have been a good example of needing to disengage and parking after it initially failed. Those keeping very long streaks are driving like the robotaxi, just letting it do whatever it does, even if it makes no sense.
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Tesla FSD V15 is built as a @robotaxi Model First which will in turn make it capable of operating basically anywhere driverless. Again this doesn’t mean it will be perfect in every scenario but it’s really the first model that is built to be driverless.
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People are going to get mad at this post but it’s true. What David is proving is that you CAN travel almost two years worth of driving without a safety critical intervention. Tesla FSD is not perfect by any means, however what he is showcasing is the model is capable of generally navigating you from point to point. It’s quite odd that some people are willing to hate instead of give Tesla its flowers. It’s funny as we get closer to unsupervised you have people becoming more bearish. Someone make it make sense.
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FSD Supervised can drive you for over 25,000 miles without you having to touch the wheel
We need to stop with this conspiracy theory that Elon is purposely halting Tesla Robotaxi so SpaceX can squire Tesla at a lower price. It’s incredibly disrespectful to the Robotaxi team who is working extremely hard everyday to make this a reality. Anyone saying this shouldn’t be taken seriously.
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A Cloudfare and Starlink partnership 👀 It sounds like Cloudfare could help the networking and dynamic routing and latency challenges and Elon agrees. This is yet another reason X was worth that $44B. The ability to connect with CEO’s and company leaders in real time.
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I saw certain Rivian owners saying people paid 12k for FSD I only pay $2,500. No offense to Rivian owners but it's absolutely wild to pay $2,500 for basic lane assist. Also you were promised L3 years ago and are no where close. I pay $1,200 a year for FSD and it is point to point today and will only get drastically better. When Rivian actually delivers some kind of autonomy above basically lane assist then we can talk about the pricing structure. and how it compares. Also AGAIN Tesla said they will take are of those who bought FSD in Full for HW3 vehicles. They have never said they would not get those cars to be unsupervised. The timeline was wrong but they are keeping their promise. We also know IT WORKS. Tesla has Robotaxis in 6 cities operating on AI4 and counting and FSD is only getting better. I hope Rivian does improve their autonomy and I think they will but it will not be an easy road.
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Prediction: Tesla FSD V15 will make V14 look like V12 in terms of intelligence. V15 is running 7 major improvement tracks happening in parallel with 40% already merged together in Robotaxi. We all can see where the flaws of V14 are and we can then infer what these 7 major improvement tracks might be.
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