Tesla Optimus vs Figure… it won’t be close.
Anyone doubting
@Tesla_Optimus at this point is a head-scratcher for me personally.
While we have not seen Gen 3 Optimus yet, I truly believe it will be next-level and superior. Here’s why I think Tesla’s humanoid will be better manufactured, more intelligent, and better at tasks.
Figure has not “out-collected” Tesla. People who think Tesla hasn’t been collecting data over the last 5 years are, I’m sorry, delusional. Figure runs these “hype videos” because they need funding—it’s really that simple. Not saying what they’re doing isn’t important; I’m just stating the obvious.
There are many factors to humanoid robots, and Figure is outmatched by Tesla in every single one.
Manufacturing: Figure plans to hit 12,000 a year with their BotQ line and is targeting 100,000 by 2029.
Tesla’s Fremont lines are already underway with an annual capacity of 1M, which is 10x Figure in the near term, and the Giga Texas factory is under construction with an annual production capacity of 10M—that’s 100x Figure.
Compute:
Tesla has Cortex and Cortex 2 with over 500MW of compute. They also work closely with SpaceX, which has the most compute in the world.
Figure has about 5% of Tesla’s Cortex compute and wants to invest $1B in future infrastructure. They also lease compute, which is very expensive; Tesla can do this in-house.
Frontier model:
Tesla will use Grok, now a leading frontier model that could be #
1# by year-end. This is one of the most important aspects—without intelligence, your bot is almost useless. Tesla will also use a neural net with massive training data.
Figure has its own (Helix), but I don’t see it competing (though that could be up for debate).
Supply chain: Do we even need to get into that? Tesla obviously has far more experience than Figure—it’s not even close.
Chips: Figure does not design or ship its own inference chipset. They use NVIDIA RTX-class GPU modules in the torso.
Tesla will use its own chipset (AI5 and beyond) and will fab its own chips with the Terafab. Not sure how you outcompete that. NVIDIA cannot support millions of robots for just Figure.
In conclusion: My prediction is Tesla will mop the floor with companies like Figure, and it won’t be close. There’s plenty of room for other competitors in the humanoid space and maybe they succeed, but Tesla’s scale is in a league of its own.