Should be pretty evident CoreWeave's cost of capital is declining over any timeframe greater than a few months.. DDTLs (the ABS, project-finance style facilities backed by specific clusters and customer contracts) comprise the majority of CoreWeave's debt. Pricing on the DDTLs has tightened a lot over the years. From S+9.62% for DDTL 1.0 issued in 2023.. to as low as S+2.25% for DDTL 4.0 done in March 2026. Note how the older, higher-priced DDTLs 1.0 and 2.0 are declining as the facilities are fully self-amortizing.. And new, lower-priced DDTLs are drawn to fund the most recent capex. Will be interesting to see where the next DDTL prices. Not going to argue it will be tighter than the S+2.25% (DDTL 4.0) and S+4.50% (5.0) prints from earlier this year. But probably worth noting that DDTL 5.5 was done at S+5.50% (not shown below as it was completed post quarter-end) in July 2026 when AI financing markets were similarly volatile.. And DDTL 5.5 has a 5 year term yet funds capex associated with non-investment grade customers on 3 year contracts, making it a much more aggressive structure than anything prior. In any event, where DDTL 6.0 lands seems much more important than where its (illiquid) unsecured senior notes are trading. $CRWV

Muse is obviously very cool. But the idea that OpenAI should "exit consumer" because of Muse has to be one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read on X, which is saying a lot. By that same logic, OAI should have exited consumer because of Gemini (lol) last year. And should have exited enterprise because of Anthropic earlier this year.. I mean Nat Friedman quite literally said that Muse is "heavily inspired" by Openclaw.. Guess where the founder of OpenClaw works these days?

$50B for what is essentially a single-site, single customer data center development project (with zero MW operational) was a pretty absurd valuation to target.. If anything, pretty healthy sign that there wasn't much demand at that price. Just look at how Fermi's $FRMI done since listing, lol.

OpenAI’s forecasted $278B of cumulative cash burn from 2026-2030 looks absurd on the surface.. but when you evaluate their funding requirements with some additional context things don’t look nearly so dire. They started 2026 with $40B of cash (Sarah Friar confirmed as such on Squawk Box at Davos in January). And then raised $122B in March.. So the forecast implies a $116B funding need. Investors reportedly “approached OpenAI” about another pre-IPO round which suggests the existing shareholders are happy to step up with more capital. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe they can raise $150B across another private round and IPO in aggregate. Which more than plugs the $116B hole. It’s also unclear if part of this funding gap can be addressed via NVIDIA’s $500B financing platform with Blackstone, Goldman, etc… NVIDIA strongly implied that much of this capital was intended for frontier labs on its latest earnings call (mirroring the Broadcom, Blackstone, and Apollo structure to finance Anthropic’s TPU purchases).. “The frontier labs have enormous demand for training and inference compute, but they are growing faster than what their balance sheets and credit profiles can support.. To support the frontier labs infrastructure build-out, we recently announced partnerships with 6 of the world’s leading infrastructure capital providers.. to establish financing platforms that will raise over $500B of third-party capital.” So it’s plausible NVIDIA expects to direct capital from this platform towards plugging OAI’s reported funding gap. The $278B cumulative cash burn number is also reported to be an improvement from what was expected in May ($305B). So it’s possible that with more momentum across Astra, Codex etc. the projected burn continues to come down (as reported financials come in better than expected). It’s also possible OAI is deliberately presenting aggressive levels of spend to justify another enormous raise only 6 months after the $122B in March. (Dylan Patel even alluded to them being cash flow breakeven / positive in Q3 on Dwarkesh a few weeks ago.) Now whether or not all of this investment is a good idea is a different question.. but I think the idea that OAI is almost certain to fail to meet its commitments based on Friday’s reported cash burn projection is a bit misguided. $CRWV $ORCL

Pretty big fumble for Anthropic not to have done a massive round in July-August.. Makes little sense that they raised just $65B (lol) in May after OAI did $122B a few months earlier, even though Anthropic had all of the momentum at the time..

CleanSpark $CLSK Founder and CEO Matt Schultz was also at H.C. Wainwright.. Some decent color on the importance of securing a top general contractor, what lenders are looking at when underwriting data center financings, and the current status of the sites they have in Texas under exclusivity (with their same signed tenant in Georgia). "For us, our tenant actually came with a specific request for an EPCM, and that EPCM has built for them before, and they also manufacture a lot of the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing components internally. It enabled us to get certainty on supply chain. It enabled us to push some of the potential risks and liquidated damages over to the construction site.. The ability to build.. has quickly been de-risked largely because of the fact of that one lump sum turnkey contract at the request of our (tenant)." "In the beginning, the analysis for high yield or investment grade was, who's the guarantor? What's the credit wrap? Who's going to give certainty that the rent payments are being made? That evolved to.. what's the certainty on construction, and what do the political headwinds look like." "We feel very confident that the exclusivity and the option for that will ultimately be executed, and we're seeing price go up in parallel with demand."

Some interesting quotes from Core Scientific $CORZ Co-Founder and CDO Russell Cann at the H.C. Wainwright conference earlier this week.. - On liquid vs air cooling: "Direct liquid cool and air cool were just not the same thing. The legacy data centers we had that were air cooled, it just made no sense to try to convert those. We had to build everything from the ground up." - On trends in $/MW CapEx costs: "The first deals.. late in 2023, we had good hard estimates of around $4.5MM a megawatt.. By the time we got around to inking the deal in June, that same facility was just under $8MM a megawatt. Now, the things that we actually turned on this year, the other sites, they were floating around $10MM to $10.5MM a megawatt.. The stuff that we have turning on in 2027.. is between $12MM and $13MM a megwatt. Most of that increase is labor, and then.. the gear, switchgear, the transformers." - On labor constraints: "If you have a kid graduating high school right now, they need to go become an electrician. Journeyman electricians right now on one of our sites make about $250k - $350k a year, and master electricians are bringing in $750k a year." - On AMD's expansion option: "We agreed to give them the next 2,000MW at three of our sites in Hunt County, TX, Pecos, TX, and Muskogee, OK.. I would say unless the market just really goes south, AMD will take all 2,000 of those MWs. They have already announced who their customers are, so you guys can figure it out."

Blackstone and Google getting their neocloud JV started with a $22B GPU loan is pretty amusing.. Have to respect $BX sticking to their PE roots and using as much debt and as little equity as possible to scale the business. But also ironic that no one bats an eye when $BX and $GOOG raise debt to build the infrastructure required to support long-term contracts. Maybe non-stop equity and convertibles issuance isn't the most optimal way to finance a neocloud?

Yup.. imo, the labs’ compute capacity for any given period of time should be viewed as fixed, and has to be allocated to either R&D or inference (COGS). Model safety/alignment is a sub-segment of R&D. So all else equal, if they allocate more compute from within the R&D bucket to safety/alignment (e.g. shifting R&D spend away from areas like pushing the frontier on RSI).. Or from the inference bucket to R&D for safety/alignment.. it’s probably net negative for near term revenues. But over longer period of time, safety/alignment should be a capability representing a source of incremental demand for compute.. Zuck articulated it well that safety/alignment really is just a standard product feature. And seems pretty clear the labs don’t have enough inference (or R&D) capacity as it is. So they’re going to need even more net new compute.

It’s probably safe to say $META ‘s capex budget isn’t getting cut after the initial reception to Muse.. Will be interesting to see if they issue equity to accelerate their spend. Now might not be a bad time to do so, with Anthropic and OpenAI still yet to IPO.

“Galaxy has been very upfront, very open and very sensitive to the needs of or to the concerns of people relative to water.. My experience right now and what I've learned in dealing with this space is that we can be proud that Galaxy is really a good example to follow.. They seem to have everyone's interest at heart.” - Dickens County Judge Kevin Brendle “I can see that the small businesses that we have here, they're all doing much better business and I can see that through the sales tax that comes back into the city.” - Dickens City Secretary Lillian Atkinson $GLXY