Rory Johnston
@Rory_Johnston
oil market researcher | founder of | former bank economist | markets, code, barbecue | subscribe to my research:
1.5K Following 115.6K Followers
For those that don’t follow the oil industry, despite its name the Texas Railroad Commission regulates the Texan oil and gas industry.
First Democrat elected commissioner in 36 years—I was 3 weeks old the last time a Dem won one of these seats.
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🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with my long-time #oott# friend Samir Madani of @TankerTrackers about the nuance of tracking ships through the Hormuz crisis and the effect of Tehran's latest attacks on MidEast oil flows.
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You’re Secretary of the… Treasury
… right?
👀 Starting to see a notable pullback in the volume of tanker flows through Hormuz based on the numbers for this week.
Still early and we might get more upward revisions (lagged dark transit IDs) but last week's numbers were already materially higher than this by this point.
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Ok here we go!
50 million barrels of emergency EU diesel supply over ~120 days = ~415 kbpd additional diesel flow rate
That's roughly one-third of the net-decline we've seen in seaborne diesel supplies this year
Big help!
(same flow rate on crude, but that matters much less)
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Saudi continues to ramp flow on the East-West pipeline.
Earlier this week the claim was 5.5 MMbpd, now at 6.0 MMbpd.
The 6.0 MMbpd of flow = 4.5 MMbpd of export with 1.5 MMbpd of West Coast Saudi refining demand.
Reminder that it doesn't matter which coast Saudi is pumping too, but rather the total volume pumped.
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Brazilian oil production continues to rip higher—that growth pace is honestly wild.
US diesel crack spread (vs Brent) at $122/bbl today as the futures contract explodes into expiry
Not the price of a barrel of diesel, the CRACK SPREAD
This didn't take long—US diesel prices now at a fresh all-time high above $224/bbl!
acute squeeze into today's contract expiry
Crude down on the week but diesel ripping back toward all-time highs.
Now back above $215/bbl, within a hair of the all-time high close of $221/bbl reached two weeks ago.
(note: US diesel futures, HO, are reported in cents per gallon and I have converted them to $/bbl)
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Latest Hormuz oil flow run shows more than 13.5 MMbpd clearing the Strait as of yesterday on a 7dma (and as regular readers will know, day-ago numbers are usually an undercount)
By far the biggest rise has come from Saudi Arabia's new Gulf loadings blitz.
(Data via Kpler)
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Where you’ll find me monitoring the situation.
The RCA Circle Bed from the late 1970s priced over $30,000.
It included:
A built-in color TV
A full stereo sound system with an 8-track or cassette player
A built-in bar with decanters and glassware.
A wireless phone.
A Control Panel that controlled all lighting, volume, and media on a built-in dashboard within arm's reach
All wrapped in "rich" Corinthian leather
I want one now.
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There isn’t any more consensus in Hong Kong than in North America about how China managed to pull off the Beijing Swing.
It was my absolute pleasure to meet up with @Rory_Johnston (who was in Hong Kong presenting at the Citic/CLSA Investor Forum) for dim sum breakfast and chatting a bit about oil/petrochems and HK.
(I stole Rory's photo!)
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🌅🥟 Huge thanks to @bauhiniacapital for taking me out for my first breakfast dim sum in Hong Kong—super interesting guy who I’ve followed on here for years, fantastic to finally put a face to the Twitter avatar.
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Finding my place in Hong Kong
Huzzah, API!
API knows better than most how terrible it would be for the White House to start mucking with export flows.
Trashes US rep as reliable energy supplier, harms US industry, and despite ST sugar high of lower pump $ would ultimately rebound & be worse for US consumers
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Americans are hurting from rising diesel costs driven by an unprecedented disruption to global refining capacity. We understand the administration is looking at every option to deliver relief, but restricting U.S. energy exports would only compound the problem — exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately hurting consumers.
The answer is more supply and more flexibility — not new restrictions that risk making a difficult situation worse.
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what a moment to be 12-hours off time zone
Trump calls for diesel export ban
My base case remains that if they move, it'll be a restriction (1973/74) than a outright ban, but who knows with these guys
Also, "I've called for it too" from Trump is funny because it's.. his choice
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Double tap for crude
This time is was the much-expected restart of the EW pipeline, which has taken more than a week compared to the original guidance of a “few days”
#OOTT# | Saudi Arabia Restarts East-West Oil Pipeline – RTRS Cites Trade Sources
- Prepares To Resume Crude Oil Exports From Yanbu Port Later On Tuesday
