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@TankerTrackers
Trusted by maritime insurers, oil producers & traders, finance, governments and top news orgs to track oil shipments. Vessel pronouns are she/her. We talk back.
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UPDATE: We now have new reason to believe that two of the three shipments are UAN fertilizer. The issue is that they departed from a petroleum berth in St. Petersburg, Russia and are heading to oil-centric terminals in USA even though one of the terminals hasn't imported Russian UAN in two years and the other shows no record of doing so. The third vessel is AGIOI FANENDES (9798375), which departed Primorsk's diesel terminal and was initialy stating "USNY" as her destination.
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People are now saying that the Houthis control the Red Sea. Whether that is still the case or not is yet to be seen, but they certainly do not control the Suez Canal or the SUMED network. Yes, imagine that: The Red Sea has another exit. Who knew?
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@TankerTrackers The Red Sea output can be closed down quite easily, and the only reason it hasn’t is because Iran wants to leave it as a last resort option if all other negotiating options fail. The Saudi defense ministers visit to Tehran today is quite telling.
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Since a good number of folks still haven't discovered a World Wide Web beyond this platform, here are some good resources to turn to instead of accusing us of "withholding" information.
We too turn to these resources daily/frequently.
#OOTT# #IranWar# #Tankers#
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🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with my long-time #oott# friend Samir Madani of @TankerTrackers about the nuance of tracking ships through the Hormuz crisis and the effect of Tehran's latest attacks on MidEast oil flows.
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OECD emergency stock releases by regions in million barrels - delivered and not delivered by regions (IEA) #oott#
No, it is because inventories are down and importers are racing to backfill their reserves.
@TankerTrackers So oil price is up 100% bc supply is down by <2%?
Yet another Yahoo that hasn't heard of Google.
@TankerTrackers I never knew a tanker tracking service was also an expert in desalination plants!!
You must be very well compensated by "someone" #oott#
Here's the math on the history:
CENTCOM’s cumulative figures -> implied MBPD exits
Jul 20: 450m bbls -> ~5.6–6.0 MBPD since early May
Sep 19: >1bn bbls-> ~9.0 MBPD
Oct 8: >1.25bn bbls -> ~13.2 MBPD
Oct 25*: >1.5bn bbls -> ~14.7 MBPD
So that puts the last two weeks ~ 14.7 MBPD, directionally consistent with the pick up we saw since Oct 9th/10th (in GoO flows).
*Rounded totals; assumes consistent counting.
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Based on their past statements, CENTCOM’s current total of 1.5 billion barrels implies that 14.7 Mbpd has departed via the SoH over the past 17 days; which is up from 13.2 Mbpd during the previous 19 days.
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Well, what happened was that CENTCOM began providing protection in the SoH and then everyone got in on the oil export bonanza. As a result of that, both the price of oil and shipping went up; and may continue. Prior to that, oil had actually dropped between May and July.
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@TankerTrackers Pretty sure the main reason is the cost of transporting the oil has gone up exponentially, even if difference in volume isn't substantial
Because there's still a hole where 1.7 billion barrels used to be.
@TankerTrackers So why is Brent at $117 if oil is flowing as you claim @TankerTrackers ?
Desalination plants do not get destroyed by oil spills. All you gotta do is switch off the plant, lay out boom lines (avoid using dispersants) and start cleaning up. Meanwhile, there's days of water stored in tanks on shore and several months worth stored underground. UAE has 70 plants, so they'll manage.
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@TankerTrackers Desalination plants will be destroyed if this goes on!
We absolutely never said that the SoH is “more open than ever”. Regional exports have rebounded due to the fact that the Red Sea now covers the drop in SoH outflows. SoH is still less than pre-war and shall likely remain that way for a foreseeable time.
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So Obama lies? @TankerTrackers says the Strait is more open than ever, and—coincidentally—Brent is at $117...
BREAKING: We have now identified three tankers carrying Russian #diesel# to the United States. All three loaded at petroleum berths in Russia and are declaring USA as their destination. Diesel is the only known hydrocarbon which the US OFAC currently permits imports of from Russia.
#OOTT#
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Frankly, the UN’s IMO offers more details, particularly the vessel identities.
Somalia 🇸🇴 has 110 billion barrels oil reserves. 6th largest oil reserves in the world.
Seized Iranian Oil Tankers Head Toward U.S. With $600 Million Cargo
Please note that Omani waters currently host Ship-to-Ship transfers of oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi and others.
So, might as well.
A solution which Saudi, Kuwait and Iraq should explore, is to pipe out their oil to Ras Markaz, Oman; which faces the Arabian Sea. It is a relatively new oil terminal and for a country that may run out of oil in just 13 years, Oman would probably be happy to see transit revenue.
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🇸🇦 Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told @NikkeiAsia any interruption to operations can be restored "within days."
He said Aramco is studying “a 4th and a 5th route” for crude oil exports in addition to its 3 primary routes [Hormuz, Red Sea and Sumed]. Aramco is looking to expand overseas storage capacity to strengthen its ability to withstand disruptions, he said.
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Saudi Arabia began seesawing its crude oil exports back east before the Petroline was even hit. They got TWICE AS MUCH (2Mbpd would have been plenty enough for refining) amount of crude flowing through the Petroline pipelines within a little over a week, and likely a sufficient amount sooner than that. ARAMCO has 24/365 access to spare parts for every single little piece of infrastructure.
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@mdburnell @TankerTrackers All time banger from the propoganda account.
