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P Equity Research 📰
@pequityresearch
Research 📃 & News 🗞️ | Semis & Tech | Research/Expert Calls: | Groupchat/Expert Calls:
Joined April 2023
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This looks awfully similar to what I posted yesterday, this time coming from the former global strategic partnership lead at Nvidia. Multiple claims made here: 1. Building a commercial cloud takes at least 12 months, meaning massive quantities won't be online until 2028. A basic functional commercial cloud will still take at least 9 months to deploy. 2. Meta has roughly 1.3 million GPUs and can offload at least 600,000 older units directly to the market (such as H100, H200, B200, and B300) as it transitions to Vera GB300. Despite rising demand for models like Llama and Muse, over 40% of this capacity remains underutilized, posing a threat to the market. 3. Meta and SpaceX are providing immediate bare metal capacity deals, renting out clusters as large as 300,000 GPUs. While expensive, this instantly available supply takes high-value contracts (worth ~$20B–$30B from SpaceX and Meta) away from neoclouds. 4. Less specialized players and Bitcoin miners (e.g., Keel Infrastructure) face major hurdles because hyperscalers are favoring established neoclouds, Meta, or SpaceX. Without a strong anchor tenant to supply capital, it will be difficult for them to enter or grow in the market. $SPCX $META $NBIS $IREN $CRWV
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Expert call: Former global strategic partnership lead at NVIDIA The biggest threat for Neoclouds and Bitcoin miners is $SPCX & $META dumping large amounts of available bare-metal GPU capacity into the market right now. • Meta has ~1.3M GPUs with over 40% capacity underutilized • Meta and SpaceX are signing bare-metal deals that can be accessed overnight (at a premium) • That capacity and those deals would otherwise have gone to neoclouds $NBIS $CRWV $IREN $KEEL
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