The same people who said they’d already sold their AI stocks or even shorted them before the crash will probably be back after the rebound telling us they already bought back in. So many geniuses out here timing the bottom perfectly.

Investors: hey dram makers, if you build more factories there will be more supply, price will fall and you will get crushed Dram makers: but my customers like AVGO, NVDA, hyperscalers, etc. told me they need more supply Investors: no they dont, they are clueless Dram makers: so I will make less profits if i sell more then? Investors: yes Dram makers: wait, how do you know? Investors: I read some guy post on X

So I guess market is mostly in unrealistic fear as per below post by Gavin. Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa will let all currently permitted Texas data centers finish building, covering most projects through 2027 and into 2028. New permits for 2028–2029 delivery will require data centers to pay taxes, keep consumer power prices flat, protect water supplies, use union labor, and give local communities a formal role in decisions.

If you think politicians actually want to do what they say, you're probably being naive. And even if they want to, wanting it is a long way from being able to do it. And even if they are able to do it, the real impact will likely be far smaller than the current fear. Maybe a lot of this selling is just hedging or liquidation. We don't know. Let's see.

The May 29 "top 4 at current market caps" stock lis to BUY from the AI micro cap bottleneck guy against today's prices. $AAOI -63% $SIVE -75% Foci -45% to -52% Shunsin -54% $XFAB (runner-up) -54% The four main picks averaged roughly -60%. Three of them rallied another 28-60% in the first week after the post, then reversed. XFAB had already peaked two days before the post. Here's how the main claims hold up. AAOI was pitched at $12B on huge 2027 revenue. That 2027 number is a projection I can't verify. What I can verify is Q2 2026 revenue of $191.9M for the whole quarter, a $600M at-the-market share sale since the post, and a market cap now around $5B. SIVE was pitched at $2B on 77% pipeline growth and 60% gross margins. The pipeline growth is real. Q2 revenue was SEK 53.8M, down 12% year over year, and cost of revenue came in above revenue. The only covering analyst has a SEK 7.70 target. It trades at SEK 17.54. Foci was pitched at $2.8B as the FAU bottleneck for COUPE. Its own Q2 deck shows at least 4 FAU suppliers, silicon photonics/CPO at 9% of revenue, and a 0.2% gross margin. It's now about $1.5B. Shunsin was pitched at $2B as the hidden packaging play. The TSMC COUPE work is confirmed. It still ran a 16.8% gross margin in Q2 and traded around 334x earnings in October. It hit limit-down today. XFAB was pitched at ~$1.5B as an EU photonics champion. Autos are about two-thirds of revenue, photonics is still marginal, and volume photonics production is guided for 2028. The low price/book part is true at about 0.7x. It's now about $760M. The AI buildout can be real and these stocks can still be wrong. Bottleneck claims need checking against supplier counts, revenue mix and margins, not just the story. Prices are in local currency as of Nov 4, 2026. Shunsin and XFAB are late-session quotes. Foci's range reflects uncertainty about its May 29 starting price.

FinX idol pumped micro cap stock at the recent ATH peaks! AXT down from $140 to $47 now, many people hated me for 'dare' to comment on it, just read the comment section it's funny now.

A funny thing about getting FI from an established career is that you would rather fight with some random dude on the internet for free for hours, than work on some useful, real cool stuff that pays three figures an hour on average.

Lol just got into some fight with 'momentum' trader guy! hey, don't look at fundamentals and valuations, look at the prices yesterday to decide if you buy or sell they can clearly read stock prices very well to tell you how did a stock do in anytime in the past, genius! 😀😂🤣

I discussed 12 AI bear theses in this article, buildout slowdown is one of them: 1. Capex isn't earning a return 2. Free cash flow went negative 3. GPUs become obsolete too soon 4. We're overbuilding 5. Token buyers aren't getting value 6. AI labs don't make money 7. OpenAI RPO concentration 8. The payback math is too good to be true 9. Credit is cracking 10. Memory is crowding out the rest of tech 11. There isn't enough capital 12. A slowdown in the data center buildout

I dont think hyperscalers have "more valuable" is the key here, probably market reads less capex spending is a good thing for them and bad for semi. But come one, what semi valuations we are looking at?

The last few weeks have been rough for anyone holding AI names. The question everyone is asking is simple: is this where the whole thing cracks? I didn’t want to answer that from my gut, so I took the 12 bear arguments I kept seeing and checked each one against the filings, Anthropic’s S-1 and the sell-side numbers. A lot of the research out there gives you a target or a number without showing the reasoning behind it. Selloffs make the bear case louder, so I wanted to work through each concern myself and show the math. Here are the 12 I cover: 1. Capex isn't earning a return 2. Free cash flow went negative 3. GPUs become obsolete too soon 4. We're overbuilding 5. Token buyers aren't getting value 6. AI labs don't make money 7. OpenAI RPO concentration 8. The payback math is too good to be true 9. Credit is cracking 10. Memory is crowding out the rest of tech 11. There isn't enough capital 12. A slowdown in the data center buildout Some of these didn’t hold up once I looked closely. Some are real, and I explain who they actually hurt. And one I hadn’t given enough weight until I ran the numbers myself. I also built a stress test model of what one gigawatt of compute earns when it’s funded entirely with debt, and stress-tested it at higher rates and lower revenue to see where it breaks. That model, along with what Anthropic’s S-1 shows about AI lab economics, may change how people think about the funding risk. If you’re trying to make sense of your own AI positions right now, I think this one is worth your time. Read it here:

David Sacks on All In: payback period as the Northstar metric for AI infrastructure. CoreWeave says typical five year deals deliver about 2.5 years payback. SpaceX pays back in roughly one year because it monetizes around $50B per gigawatt while CoreWeave sits near $20B per gigawatt. SpaceX gets effectively spot pricing on 90 day cancelable deals, while CoreWeave locked five year contracts at older prices and spot compute moved way up on scarcity and demand. As long as payback stays short, the economics are nearly unlosable and debt rolls fast. The warning signal is payback stretching out, which implies demand softening, spot falling, or execution delays.

David Sacks pushes back against the prevailing narratives, arguing that CoreWeave’s sharp spike in bond yields and stock selloff reflect market volatility driven by bets on multi-trillion-dollar AI outcomes and exponential growth, rather than a fundamental collapse in demand. He breaks down these narratives one by one. The key to understanding CoreWeave’s credit risk is that the creditworthiness of its long-term contract customers matters far more.

MU: D.A. Davidson raises Micron target to $3,000, new street high + D.A. Davidson raised its price target on Micron to $3,000 from $2,100 and kept a Buy rating, via TheFly. After meetings with the company's investor relations team, the firm concluded investors are early in their journey of understanding Micron's value and that the journey will lead them to assign a far higher multiple. + The analyst believes Micron is on a growth trajectory for the next 3 to 5 years, which the market has not yet acknowledged. The new $3,000 target is a street high, well above the rest of the pack.