@Dont4getLettuce @_Checkmatey_ @TheBitcoinLayer No, this is for subscribers of either @TheBitcoinLayer & @_checkonchain part of a monthly series called The Big Picture that I do with @_Checkmatey_ in which we give a macro and bitcoin on-chain overview to both of our subscriber bases, this was #6# join us as a TBL Pro!

Bitcoin’s waking up and it’s time to learn from the best 🧠 James Check joins us remotely to break down the details. His talk ‘Analysing the 2026 Bear Market’ brings exclusive content you haven’t heard anywhere else. Tickets ➡️

It’s obviously a dead-cat bounce. It has to be a dead-cat bounce. Oh god, please, please make this a dead-cat bounce. These narratives and many others are running through the minds of the bears as Bitcoin shows them that, no, the orange coin does not have to adhere to your precise definition of the four-year cycle. This is the kind of week that almost makes you feel a little bit sorry for all the bears. Almost. You just know some poor BIP-110 believers were convinced that because their personal vision for Bitcoin didn’t work out, they opened up a few shorts and got absolutely slapped at the bottom. You just know (and I’ve personally seen) crypto influencers staying sidelined and absolutely certain the bottom is still pre-programmed for October. You love to see it. And selfishly, I feel quite vindicated that mere hours after writing the most bullish piece that I ever have, the price ripped. It feels good, not going to lie, but instead of getting a big head and getting more confident, I want to do something else. I want to challenge my assumptions. I want to examine the question that’s on everyone’s mind right now. Is this a disbelief rally? TLDR: I think so.

Bitcoin’s rally past 77k has now pushed through the Short Term Holder cost basis, 200DMA and True Market Mean. More importantly, spot demand has followed through on the initial short squeeze, adding weight to the case that this could be more than just another bear market rally. In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ assesses the evidence for a bullish transition, and what he still needs to see for final confirmation. Get the full article + 40 minute Market Update video with a 7-Day Free Trial - you’ll find the link at the top of the article →

@GrainofSaltSF @_Checkmatey_ In a space with so much self aggrandizing, useless drivel, he continues to deliver objective signal. One of the very few people I’ve subscribed to, listened to, and followed over the past handful of years without eventually losing respect for.

"Thus far, we’ve been unable to convince ourselves against the idea that the bottom formation process of the 2026 bear started with the price-pain capitulation event on 6-Feb-2026." Read the bear report we co-published with @_Checkmatey_ in April 2026. ⤵️

if bitcoin truly bottomed at 58K i like to give flowers to @_Checkmatey_ and @renato_shira there are over 1000 bitcoin onchain indicators, over 100 technical indicators, over 100 correlations and microstructure indicators and backtests and alpha decay needed to invalidate each hard to navigate and determine what is noise and im myself am guilty of this i can look at the URPD analysis chart everyday but so what? Over analysis can still befall on me The buybacks on long dated treasuries is an enduring catalyst and i had <12 hours to invalidate models because scott bessant sneaked that one in on a negatively sloped realized price. Difficult lesson that price and value matters over timing Also credit to @_nym21_'s open source Bitcoin Research Kit for powering everything. Happy to be a bitcoiner again $BTC

The four year cycle was always more likely to break in a bear. There is nothing magical about the calendar that drives price, and using it as a market compass was destined to lead you off course given enough time. Once the compass breaks, you're truly lost. Build a better one.

For the record, our receipts detailing this as our base case setup in February at $60k: Welcome to Deep Value (6-Feb) Capitulation (10-Feb) Time-Pain (13-Feb)

Here’s the first 13 minutes of our latest Premium Market Update, where @_Checkmatey_ breaks down Bitcoin’s rip past $69k and what the data looks like following the largest short liquidation in history. Watch the full 38 minute video with our 7-Day Free Trial:

@_Checkmatey_ And as a shout out absolutely worth subscribing to his Substack. He is an analyst a family man, and been far more right than wrong these last 12 months. And with humility. Don’t penny wise and dollar stupid. Great content.

There are people out there right now, who are selling BTC to buy Blake2b ASIC rigs...so they can mine an absolute failed shitcoin fork of Bitcoin... ...right as BTC rallies off its bear market low. Chefs kiss.