I see that @QuotientHQ now flipped its signal to "Yes" for a September rate hike. Hey @amphib0ly, given how much noise and emotion flood macro prediction markets at times like these, and seeing Q navigate this volatility raises a question, would an Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) layer make sense here? Specifically to: - Parse fine-grained sentiment when the market is overreacting to individual headlines. - Flag divergence when X/media sentiment drastically decouples from hard data inputs. - Improve model interpretability when probability pivots. ABSA could break down sentiment by specific macro vectors (FOMC dissents, CPI components, or labor metrics for instance) making the engine way sharper at spotting market-disconnect alpha. $QUOTIENT

Narrator: "Many RH chain bluechips were were panic-sold during the Great August 28 Shakeout following Kevin Warsh's speech. Among them was @QuotientHQ, a forecasting intelligence that saw the Fed bluff, called the Fed bluff against consensus, and aggressively doubled down against Polymarket’s order book. It wasn’t until the next day, when a top 15 Polymarket geopolitics trader shared a similar view ( and Polymarket's odds frantically began bending to Quotient's forecast, that the sellers realized a tragic truth: they hadn't risk-managed. What they’d dumped was, in fact, free money. Quotient gave them a 104% ROI trade on Polymarket. Quotient had just earned a massive validation." $QUOTIENT

A team like this? They don't make them anymore. Also, a lot of people are getting tripped up by the transfer amounts (or might have panic sold due to this). Remember that Bankr launches use a 100B total supply (not the standard 1B). 20 recipients getting 5M tokens each comes out to 100M tokens total, which is the equivalent of 1M tokens on a 1B supply coin. At a $1M market cap, that whole 100M allocation is worth $1,000. $QUOTIENT

Interesting. @QuotientHQ is currently pricing "No hike" by the Fed in September at 83%, compared to 53% on Polymarket. While Warsh's speech today shook up a lot of traders, Quotient actually doubled down, bumping the no-hike probability from 73% to 83%. The logic: hawkish dissents and price pressures make a hike a serious alternative, but they don't have a voting majority yet. Cooling activity data plus tighter financial conditions mean a hold with optionality is still the path of least resistance. "The most likely outcome is therefore another hold, accompanied by language preserving the option to tighten later." What would change this 1. Chair Kevin Warsh clearly signals whether he favors patience or sees September tightening as necessary. 2. The final major labor-market readings before the meeting show either durable strength or a clear loss of momentum. 3. Incoming inflation data show whether recent cooling persists despite renewed energy pressure. Keeping an eye on how this spread closes. $QUOTIENT

Already 160 active weekly users on @QuotientHQ and $51,851 in volume traded. Backed by VCs and solid names in the space, including @clanker_world's co-founder, making it the only project he angel invested in after leaving Clanker. Quotient is also fully multi-chain: accepting x402 payments on @base, integrating @Polymarket on @0xPolygon, and pulling in @Kalshi (which isn't even on-chain). Will do a full recap of their @MCGLive appearance later today. $QUOTIENT 0x2531f3ca1b31086b7fc130ecda6d3253daf83ba3