AntiFragile
@anti_fragile
Lead Analyst @glassnode
Ex-Neuroscientist, prev @swissblock__
views my own
919 Following 971 Followers
The largest liquidation cluster now sits above bitcoin:native.
It sits around $87k, just above the October high.
If price climbs back toward it, shorts there would be forced to cover, which could add fuel to the move up.
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Altcoin speculation has slowed down
Total spot volume is back to about 3x bitcoin:native's, its median since 2022. In late September it was running near 4x.
For buyers looking at altcoins, this is a better entry than it was when the market was overheated a month ago.
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Long term holders are suppressing bitcoin:native price.
Each time price moves toward $85k it meets sellers who have sat at a loss for most of 2026.
Short-term holders take the other side, in profit with a floor around $78k. They provide the shorter term support levels.
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Bitcoin's largest gains come after reclaiming its long-run mean.
Currently, BTC is 13% away from that point.
In each of the last three cycles, bitcoin:native did most of its climbing after the first close above.
The cycle top usually followed more than a year after.
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bitcoin:native is outperforming the starts of the last two bull markets.
Measured off the low, 84 days ago, price is up 47%.
The 2019 and 2023 recoveries were both slower than this.
In both of those cycles, most of the move came after this point.
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Hyperliquid whales have been net long bitcoin:native for six months.
They flipped bullish in March and added long exposure throughout the summer.
On average, these traders also captured most of the downside from the BTC all time high last year.
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The same level keeps capping bitcoin:native: the cost basis of large holders.
Corporate treasuries’ break-even sits around $80k.
A dovish FOMC could help set the stage to break through it.
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bitcoin:native, normally the most volatile major asset, is quieter than gold, silver, and oil.
Even US indices aren’t far behind.
This is why volume and liquidity are in commodities and equities right now.
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