"Compute market isn't real" is half right. It's real. It just won't look like oil. It'll look like power. History lesson first. NYMEX launched electricity futures in March 1996 with great fanfare: Palo Verde, California-Oregon Border, later Cinergy, Entergy, PJM. By 1999, power futures traded fewer than 200,000 contracts for the year. Natural gas did 19 million. Gasoline did 8.7 million. PJM futures averaged 13 contracts a day. The market was so thin that an order of 25-30 contracts could move the price. In February 2002, NYMEX delisted all of it. But power contract didn't die. It went local. In 2025, EEX traded 9,330 TWh of European power derivatives. ICE did a record 7.8bn MWh of US power. Nord Pool cleared 1,231 TWh of spot. PJM alone billed $80.5B. So power still trades in some size. Just nothing like oil. Rough math (volume x average price): about $1.5T a year of US + European power futures notional, vs about $50T for Brent + WTI. Power is roughly 3% of oil, even though the physical "spot" power market is enormous. Why? Three things oil has that power doesn't. 1/ Storage. A barrel sits in a tank for months. Electricity barely stores at all (US utility-scale batteries built through 2020 average only about 3 hours of output.) 2/ Transport. A barrel gets on a tanker and goes anywhere. A megawatt-hour is stuck on its grid. 3/ Supply inelasticity. In a longer term horizon, Oil supply source is limited and is often ineslatic to the rising Oil demand. This results in the price sensitivity for Oil globally. Meanwhile, electricity is supplied locally via multiple means (solar, nuclear, hydro, geothermal...). Even if there is electricity shortage, given enough time and capital, power supply is often quicker to catch up to the demand. Elastic supply + No storage + No shipping = no global price. You get a thousand local, hourly products. A MWh in Germany at 6pm is a different commodity from a MWh in PJM at 3am. Now swap "MWh" for "GPU-hour." 1/ No storage. An idle H100-hour is gone forever. You can't put it in a tank. 2/ No shipping. It's tied to a site: its power, its network, its latency, its contract terms. An H100 in Virginia isn't an H100 in Singapore. 3/ Elastic supply. Fabs, HBM and power are tight today, but give it time and capital and supply catches up, just like power. On top of that, every chip generation partially obsoletes the last one. Imagine if a new grade of crude made your barrels worth less every 18 months. So when we asks whether compute is a standardizable commodity: Yes, the way POWER is. Not the way OIL is. I expect regional indices, hourly and monthly contracts, bilateral OTC deals, and basis everywhere. I highly doubt there will be a standardized Brent of compute. But, there could be a PJM of compute. Very different