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Yuki is short, so is life
@ballsyalchemist
Building @tenbinlabs
1.4K Following    5K Followers
"Compute market isn't real" is half right. It's real. It just won't look like oil. It'll look like power. History lesson first. NYMEX launched electricity futures in March 1996 with great fanfare: Palo Verde, California-Oregon Border, later Cinergy, Entergy, PJM. By 1999, power futures traded fewer than 200,000 contracts for the year. Natural gas did 19 million. Gasoline did 8.7 million. PJM futures averaged 13 contracts a day. The market was so thin that an order of 25-30 contracts could move the price. In February 2002, NYMEX delisted all of it. But power contract didn't die. It went local. In 2025, EEX traded 9,330 TWh of European power derivatives. ICE did a record 7.8bn MWh of US power. Nord Pool cleared 1,231 TWh of spot. PJM alone billed $80.5B. So power still trades in some size. Just nothing like oil. Rough math (volume x average price): about $1.5T a year of US + European power futures notional, vs about $50T for Brent + WTI. Power is roughly 3% of oil, even though the physical "spot" power market is enormous. Why? Three things oil has that power doesn't. 1/ Storage. A barrel sits in a tank for months. Electricity barely stores at all (US utility-scale batteries built through 2020 average only about 3 hours of output.) 2/ Transport. A barrel gets on a tanker and goes anywhere. A megawatt-hour is stuck on its grid. 3/ Supply inelasticity. In a longer term horizon, Oil supply source is limited and is often ineslatic to the rising Oil demand. This results in the price sensitivity for Oil globally. Meanwhile, electricity is supplied locally via multiple means (solar, nuclear, hydro, geothermal...). Even if there is electricity shortage, given enough time and capital, power supply is often quicker to catch up to the demand. Elastic supply + No storage + No shipping = no global price. You get a thousand local, hourly products. A MWh in Germany at 6pm is a different commodity from a MWh in PJM at 3am. Now swap "MWh" for "GPU-hour." 1/ No storage. An idle H100-hour is gone forever. You can't put it in a tank. 2/ No shipping. It's tied to a site: its power, its network, its latency, its contract terms. An H100 in Virginia isn't an H100 in Singapore. 3/ Elastic supply. Fabs, HBM and power are tight today, but give it time and capital and supply catches up, just like power. On top of that, every chip generation partially obsoletes the last one. Imagine if a new grade of crude made your barrels worth less every 18 months. So when we asks whether compute is a standardizable commodity: Yes, the way POWER is. Not the way OIL is. I expect regional indices, hourly and monthly contracts, bilateral OTC deals, and basis everywhere. I highly doubt there will be a standardized Brent of compute. But, there could be a PJM of compute. Very different
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heard many smart people say "Compute Market is not real" - Is compute actually a tradable/standardizable commodity? Is there meaningful market outside the 5 monopoly OTC deals? Is there a venue with deep enough liquidity for price discovery?
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Finally got our Proof of Reserves out. Due to the unique design of Tenbin assets, there were quite a bit of juggling we had to do with the PoR setup. Thanks @chainlink for accomodating and helping us with the setup! Check the doc for more details:
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Proof of Reserves is now live on Tenbin. Every tGLD, tBRL and tMXN in circulation has their off-chain reserves verified by @chainlink. Don’t trust. Verify ->
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What ppl missed from @Jason 's tweet is that he followed up with this post lmaooo
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started. Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now. Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue. We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months. Why? Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value. Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value? What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?! The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED! Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets! No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone. No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS! Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity. This should be obvious to everyone right now. Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
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ibovespa -17.6%, BRL -11% (worst day since '99), brazil 10Y 12.9% → 16% in one session I said it monday: BRL sell is overshoot. Fiscal fear is real, but selic 13.75% + a 16% 10Y is a lot of carry to get paid for. Panic sellers have set a new entry
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🚨Past 48 hours have been BRUTAL for Brazil markets after President Lula’s Win: 1. Brazil’s stock market index crashed 17.6% on Monday, worst single day crash after 2020 COVID news. 2. Shortly after the market opened, circuit breaker was triggered to halt trading, first time since 2020. 3. Brazil’s currency REAL plunged 11% against the US dollar, the worst one-day drop since 1999. 4. EWZ, a US-listed ETF tracking Brazilian equities, crashed over 26%, marking its largest intraday decline ever. 5. Yield on 10 Year government bonds surged by 300 points in a single day from 12.9% to 16%. Before Sunday's result, Brazil was one of the best-performing global markets this year, gaining 38% after pulling in $5B in foreign capital. Now, investors are dumping assets over fears of Lula’s expensive "tax and spend" welfare promises. Markets are panicking that these new policies will explode public spending which is already at 83% of GDP. With interest rates already at 13.75%, all hopes are on Lula to deliver fiscal policies that can stop the panic.
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Someone tried to sell ~$630 of tokenized reddit (RDDTc) on base and got quoted $0.26 lol. 99.95% price impact Exactly what i meant last week. no atomic mint/redeem = you're stuck with whatever AMM liquidity exists 1:1 backed ≠ liquid
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I feel scammed by @coinbase and @base, and here's why. Two weeks ago, I bought 3.99 tokenized Reddit shares (RDDTc) on Base. I used the token contract address listed on the official Base website. The tokens are issued by Coinbase and backed 1:1 by shares held in regulated custody. Reddit is listed there under Coinbase Tokenized Stocks, along with its prospectus and contract address. Today, I tried to sell my shares. Here's what I found: Underlying stock value: ~$590 @aeroxyz sell quote: ~$0.20 @Uniswap sell quote: ~$150 How is this acceptable? I contacted @CoinbaseSupport, but they replied that, for the best chance of getting a price close to the stock's market value, I should use Coinbase's official tokenized stocks interface on the Base website. But there's no sell option there. My concern isn't whether the token itself is legitimate. My concern is LIQUIDITY. Tokenized stocks have been live on Base for over 60 days, yet many still have almost no DEX liquidity. Out of 100+ tokenized stocks on Base, I've noticed that only around 15–20 have sufficient liquidity. Many others have less than $5K in liquidity. On October 11, I raised this issue with @jessepollak. Jesse replied: "It's coming, y'all are fast!" But we're still facing the same problem. We bought tokenized stocks because we expected to be able to trade them whenever we wanted. What's the point of bringing stocks onchain if users can't sell them at a reasonable price? Some tokenized stocks, like Apple, have sufficient liquidity, and trading works smoothly. So we know the experience can work. But for many other stocks, the situation is completely different. I've also noticed some tokenized stocks trading at significant premiums compared to their underlying shares. @base and @coinbase need to address two major problems: 1. Liquidity: Provide or incentivize sufficient liquidity across tokenized stocks, not just a handful of popular ones. 2. Price alignment: Improve price alignment so tokenized shares trade close to the value of their underlying stocks. If tokenized stocks are supposed to represent real shares backed 1:1, users deserve clarity about how liquidity, pricing, and redemption actually work. This is feedback, NOT FUD. I love Base. 💙 I build on Base, I support the ecosystem, and I genuinely want it to grow. But loving an ecosystem doesn't mean staying silent when something is wrong. Real feedback is necessary for real growth. Onchain stocks need onchain liquidity. @base @coinbase @jessepollak Let's fix this.
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Have spent few days looking for on-chain stock that offers the BEST & consistent pricing across sizes. But disappointed that only 1 provider ticked all the boxes for me... Mainly two observations: 1. There is a large amount of arb flow that make the historical executed stock price on-chain looks better than it actually is (this applies uniformly to stocks that heavily rely on AMM, such as @bstocksfinance, @RobinhoodCrypto, @base stock). Most retail traders will likely suffer 15-25bps in spread from market price on average, while arber compete to capture negative spread. PropAMM helps here but limited coverage with size still. 2. All AMM based stocks does not have the atomic mint and redeem feature enabled (unlike @Ondo/@xStocksFi ). This significantly constrains the access to the primary liquidity sources (i.e. Alpaca's brokerage giving access to underlying market). This forces all the swaps to rely on AMM liquidity. Conclusion: AMM still suck for stock trading. Stock providers with atomic mint/redeem suck less. But the latter is still more expensive than to trade directly via local brokers in most cases. Still better than AMM on average. Given enough time, perhaps propAMM will improve the price execution for retail flow. But unfortunately, we are still far from "cheap" stock trading on-chain for most stock providers.
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It's basically free (<<1%) to borrow USDC against stBRL and stMXN right now ;)) Excuse the mishap for anyone who thought there was only $0.9 of liquidity to borrow.
This wraps up @blockchain_rio. Thanks to everyone who participated in our product survey. We received amazing feedback from the community and truly appreciate everyone who shared their thoughts. Please keep your eyes out for the survey airdrop & more product updates!
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Met a lot of amazing people in Rio and got lots of great feedback on Tenbin! Thanks to everyone who completed our surveys 👍 Now heading to Sao Paulo. Down to catch anyone in town! DM open ;)
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This is 2026, DeFi today is no longer the same DeFi back in 2023. The same old DeFi playbook won't work anymore (nor is it sustainable as proven many times in the market). Gotta carve our own path. Not ez, but has to be done.
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First time going to Brazil. Will be spending good few weeks between Rio and Sao Paulo. Hit me up if you would be around 😁😉 (This pic was from Shenzhen...lol)
Since 2021: MXN TIIE return (MXN T-bill equivalent): +78.8% U.S. short-term rates: +19.0% Even after currency moves, holding pesos + earning Mexico's overnight rate beat US T-bill rates by 59.9%. In plain English: the MXN peso carry trade paid more yield + the currency upside.
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Congrats to Christine and her team! Looking forward to seeing how crypto rails help fulfill the robotics data needs.
For embodied AI to reach its GPT Moment, the data gap must first be crossed. Axis Robotics strives to build the compounding data engine for Physical AI. We have built an end-to-end data pipeline covering simulation data, egocentric data, model pre-training, and DAgger post-training. Axis transforms embodied AI data collection from a static, one-way and siloed workflow into dynamic, cyclic cluster-based collection and processing. Human demonstration data feeds the policy; gaps exposed flow back to humans operators for supplementary collection and iteration, enabling continuous dynamic dataset updates. We’ve got plenty to-dos on our time table, let’s keep building during bear
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And most importantly, they are liquid on-chain. Tenbin assets are designed to be liquid-by-default.
Since 2021: BRL Selic return: +82.7% U.S. short-term rates: +18.9% After accounting for currency exposure, holding BRL and earning Selic beat USD T-bill by 63.8%. To put it simply: over the past 5 years, BRL carry earned far more than simply sitting in USD treasury.
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And most importantly, they are liquid on-chain. Tenbin assets are designed to be liquid-by-default.
Since 2021: BRL Selic return: +82.7% U.S. short-term rates: +18.9% After accounting for currency exposure, holding BRL and earning Selic beat USD T-bill by 63.8%. To put it simply: over the past 5 years, BRL carry earned far more than simply sitting in USD treasury.
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For a tokenzied asset to be liquid from the get-go is such a big unlock for how it can grow its distributions. Liquidity maxxing is the way to go.
Would be crazy if Argentina win this with 0 attempted goal while Spain got like 20 lol