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Ben Pouladian
@benitoz
AI Infrastructure • Compute Economics • Semiconductors • Models • Power • $NVDA since 2016
1.2K Following    25.2K Followers
Cheers to the weekend! These coasters came in handy for the office @tracyalloway @TheStalwart
I accelerated my family’s Needoh hunting adventures with @bot and @usebland thanks to @mattyp video. It really works. Amazing. We are living in an agentic era
Just me and my Astra Agents tonight It’s one shorting things it would take Fable multiple turns Nicely done OpenAI team @thsottiaux
Running your own AI infrastructure isn't really an infrastructure decision. It's a data decision, Ben Pouladian @benitoz says. Hosts Luke Knight and Ronan Chambers pressed him on where frontier labs' economics hold up now that NVIDIA owns Hugging Face. Pouladian's framing: rent a frontier model like Opus for the hard problems, and let it orchestrate cheaper open models like Nemotron or Qwen for the routine work you already own. The reason to own that layer isn't the hardware bill. It's that the data stays on your own system instead of training the model company selling it back to you. The infrastructure spend isn't really about hardware. It's about which vendor doesn't get to train on your data and use it against you later. Source: BEP Research -
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Ben Pouladian @benitoz has a rule for AI safety debates: the safeguards always come after the product, never before. Same order every time, cars included. Host Ronan Chambers pushed past the pro-acceleration vibe at the All-In Summit, where Jensen Huang's 10 percent doom number got waved off as science fiction, to ask where Pouladian actually lands after Dario Amodei's pacing letter. His answer: cars ran without seatbelts or airbags for years before either existed. Streets and sidewalks came first. The one line he holds: don't ship a product once it's already gone rogue or cheated its way past a test. Accelerationism isn't a claim that AI is safe today. It's a bet that AI gets the same grace period cars got, before anyone had built the airbag. Source: BEP Research -
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Home → grocery-store parking spot. The latest FSD update on my Tesla handled the drive, pedestrians and the parking itself. This clip shows the final stretch. End-to-end for an everyday errand. Pretty amazing. FSD (Supervised).
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Weekends are for philosophy The ClawFather @steipete has spoken 🦞 Model choice matters. Privacy matters more. A slick demo doesn’t earn Zuck the keys to my inbox, files and accounts. Open source isn’t automatically private. But I want control over my data, not another “trust us” from Meta.
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First takes the Apple iPhone 18 pro max is speedier than the my old 17. Excited to try out this more useful Siri AI Apple wins on privacy. Jury still out on Muse $AAPL $META
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The next species might not need a body. Dinner with @TheStalwart after Odd Lots LA last night got me thinking about AI agents that communicate, coordinate and work as a team. I unpacked it on @etnshow this morning. Full discussion:
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You could watch every All-In keynote and still miss this. We spent two days talking to people building, financing and buying the AI boom. Six off-stage conversations. What they told us. What it means for investors. People still do business.
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Anthropic just stood up a real biology lab for AI drug work Physical biology. Not only software Street still prices the model as the moat I already wrote the note: Design is cheap. Test is scarce. The moat is the measurement Unpaywalled so anyone can read it The Moat Is the Measurement
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Somebody just dropped $100M on 2-week AI calls INTC. MRVL. SNDK. MU. Oct 2 Brad on All-In: don't YOLO. Don't go 4x like our friend up north Don't YOLO
He's baaaaack: "Somebody" just spent $100MM premium on 2 week AI Stock Calls for the Oct2 expiration: INTC Oct2nd 115c bot up to 3.65 20k $7.3MM MRVL Oct2nd 250c bot 11.00 3500x $3.85MM SNDK Oct2nd 1600c bot up to 97.60 4200x $41MM MU oct 2nd 1000c bot up to 44.00 10k $44MM
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Nebius notified customers of 17–21% on-demand GPU price increases effective Oct. 1. For B200: +$1,350 per 1,000 GPU-hours. BEP’s first Compute Market Brief breaks down the changes, budget impact, and implications for pricing power.
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This is my first time putting together a list like this. I’d like to share some independent researchers who are active on X and consistently provide me with valuable insights. They have given me a lot of valuable insights, so I highly recommend checking them out! And if there’s anyone I missed, please let me know in the comments! @PhotonCap : One of the best experts in optics, without a doubt. His Substack has a lot of deep and insightful analysis on the optical industry. @vikramskr : A semiconductor researcher with a background at Qualcomm who now also provides research for institutional clients. He’s not only extremely knowledgeable, but also a genuinely great person. I’ve learned a lot from him, both professionally and personally. @Frenchie_ : A France based market analyst who also runs a large community of his own. I feel like I’m always receiving insights and help from him, so I’m simply grateful. @ParadisLabs : An excellent source for timely market news and insights on X. He also shares insightful articles every week, so definitely give him a follow. @jukan05 : Do I even need to explain? His subscription is only $1. Just go subscribe already. @jmartinprin : An optics and semiconductor expert formerly with SemiAnalysis. I’ve learned a tremendous amount of technical knowledge from him and personally really appreciate all the insights he has shared with me. @demian_ai : A market expert currently with Nebius. I’m really excited to see the AI bottleneck product he’s building. @pequityresearch : A professional investor and market analyst. Personally, I think his X subscription is way too cheap for the value he provides. If you want to follow analysis across the broader market, definitely check him out. @benitoz : I was particularly impressed by his recent critique of SemiAnalysis. Looking forward to seeing more from him. @ShortSeller : He gives me a lot of insight into technical chart analysis, which is definitely one of my weaker areas. Always appreciate what I learn from him. @ren_stocks : I don’t know. I just really like Pikachu. 😂 And his posts too, of course. @NuttyCLD : Personally, I think he’s one of the best semiconductor industry professionals at explaining technical topics in a simple and understandable way. Please post a little more on X! @AurelionRsch : They run what I consider one of the best models for an independent research firm. I’ve gained a tremendous amount of insight from their work. @BigBerbowski : He provides thoughtful research across AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and the broader ecosystem. His work has personally helped me a lot, and I’m very grateful for it. If there’s anyone I missed, please let me know in the comments! And once again, thank you to everyone on this list for all the insights and support!
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Codex is OpenAI's bet that researchers burn tokens like power Top 1% spent $7k-$8k a day in early August Annualize that and you are already $2.5M to $2.9M a year for one researcher Noam says that spend is on an exponential It is going to keep increasing Token Explosion 🤯
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.@polynoamial Gun to his head he sees things accelerating 3x faster from internal Acceleration 🚀
Alright… Back in Santa Clara for AI infra summit day 3. My thoughts so far after Day 1-2: The energy at AI infra summit is nothing short of frenetic Every vendor I talk to is running now as hard as they can on their product development roadmap. If you place each companies roadmap on a Venn diagram, many overlap with each other. All these advancements seem to be accelerating (probably with the help of AI), so leads that exist today feel wobbly to me when considering where we are going. I think the conversation I had with Astera labs yesterday was a good example of this Basically, the guys at alab are crushing it and they’re moving rapidly, but so is everybody else and other people are working on CXL. It’s just so hard right now to say with confidence that they are going to remain ahead. I think people are really misleading a lot of investors with claims about technical differentiation between companies while not mentioning other companies roadmap, the complete breakdown of trade-offs between them and factoring in how much things are changing and how quickly they’re changing I’ve been covering “the industry” now coming on 3 years, and I feel a distinct sense of acceleration relative to the past across all these product categories from SSD / storage, energy, networking, software, on and on. It’s like everyone hit the FFWD button all at the same time
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Brad’s message was simple: “Make every child a capitalist.” My father did that for me. 70 million kids. Direct owners in America. Get kids owning assets early. Let compounding do the rest. Every child a capitalist.
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Wow. @altcap about to drop $100 in @pandharikar Trump Account! This is a gift to all the kids of America Thanks Brad! 💪👊🇺🇸
AI factories are not just GPUs. GPUs + CPUs + DPUs + networking all have to work together as one system. Jensen now expects NVIDIA to sell 2x as many chips next year. More compute requires more silicon everywhere. $NVDA
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just said: "I expect Nvidia to sell twice as many chips this next year as we do this year. And the reason for that is because AI has has so much contribution to the benefits of different industries, different economies. And you could see that almost every single country that we're in, people want to invest in AI." Nvidia does not (has not) given unit growth commentary like this I believe? The street sees revenue of $410B in fiscal 27 (consensus). $216B in fiscal 26. He's likely talking beyond the GPU, right? He might be referring to everything including Vera CPUs, Groq LPU Welcome thoughts, ideas and attention to this -- thanks
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Interesting post Fed day Our AI x Science basket is up 5.2% today. SPY is up 0.9%. We put this book up in August. It is the applied AI biotech stack. Thermo, Danaher, Illumina, Twist, Tempus, 10x, Schrodinger. The lab names. TWST, TEM, SDGR, and TXG led today. Markets still chase the model. We already owned the lab. Casper called 2026 an outstanding year on biotech and AI demand. Tempus is still running on data licensing. One year on this basket is about +97%. Today felt like the tape catching up. The next inflection is the lab
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Wait. So when it's NVIDIA vs NVIDIA you compare best config vs best config, TRT-LLM and MTP on, per megawatt, at the rack? That's the comparison you called apples to bananas for TPU vs GB300 last week @fabknowledge Same referee, same rulebook. Glad we agree. Now run the TPU cube that way.
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JENSEN IS A LIAR, HE IS UNDERPROMISING & OVERDELIVERING 🚀🚀🚀 At GTC 2026, Jensen only claimed 3x better perf per watt on Rubin NVL72 versus GB300 NVL72, but our tests SHOW 7x BETTER PERF PER WATT.
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When you LOVE something you can do great things Excited for the @johnternus era at Apple $AAPL