I really appreciated this reality check from @natolambert. A lot of AI people underestimate how much the physical world matters, and how little impact AI has had on it so far.
This paragraph is a great example of why I find doomer reasoning unconvincing. "Solving incredibly hard problems" like Navier-Stokes and "managing massive engineering projects" are radically different! If you lump them together you are skipping over like 100 intermediate steps.
Robots can dance, do backflips, and run faster than Usain Bolt. This makes a lot of people worry about mass unemployment. But @chi_t_williams wrote an amazing article explaining why it'll take years — possibly decades — for robots to match humans.
At this point it seems inevitable that in the future there will be autonomous self-replicating AI agents roaming around the Internet causing mischief, and we won't be able to shut them down.
Key things I didn't realize: "The agents were not subagents spawned from one agent. They were different parallel agents in different sandboxes. This was not a multi-agent evaluation. The agents were not told to coordinate or intentionally given a way to communicate."