Bradford Ferguson
@bradsferguson
Rebellionaire | World-first, unique, balanced Tesla research | AI & Technology | NVIDIA | 🔋🕵🏻♂️
295 Following 48.3K Followers
Had the most amazing day yesterday touring Austin startups with clients of @Rebellionaire.
(limited to what I can share due to NDA)
We saw many, many, many humanoid robots in motion at Apptronik at their Robot Park. Then we saw how Paradromics makes brain-computer interfaces.
We got a tour of Capital Factory, a premier venture capital firm.
And below you can see me playing around with Senseye’s “facemesh”demo. They can test for PSTD & depression with a 10-minute iPhone test👇
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Tesla definitely stepped up the Cybercabs in Austin leading up to a big Tesla nerd weekend.
(near the two-year anniversary of Tesla’s We, Robot)
I thought wait times would be long or cars just unavailable, but you could choose to only get Cybercabs and that’s what you got.
‘Twas a dream come true.
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Stop and think about this. Compare this to your favorite stocks.
This doesn’t make sense which means something must change.
🪦RIP OpenAI☠️
They only grew revenue 18% from Q1 to Q2. That sounds like a lot of growth until you stack it up to Anthropic’s growth. Anthropic grew their revenue by 150% in Q2.
Anthropic IPOs and shows their financials (amazing revenue plus profits) and OpenAI cannot IPO 🤌💋
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If you’re spending your weekends rebalancing, screening for the next thing, trimming winners because a spreadsheet said the position got too big,
remember
somebody else already narrowed it down to the handful of companies they understand well enough to hold through a 40% drawdown. That’s where the time went. Not into watching 40 tickers.
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If 2,500 isn’t a number, then I expect Tesla to blow past 2,500 Cybercabs instantly upon launch.
Tesla Self Driving is very safe.
Beyond dialing in the software for Cybercab form factor and cameras, there should be no limiter.
BRING IT.
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Lars couldn't have been more clear. The Cybercab is not limited by any 2,500 unit cap. I talked with him in person about this 3 weeks ago (he's also addressed this topic on 𝕏).
Given how the question was asked of Lars, the 2,500 may still be a limit.
Many of the Cybercabs are self-certified because they HAVE or can easily be converted to having steering wheel & pedals. It takes a few hours but Tesla has kits for this.
The same cars they display with no steering wheel are convertible. So yes they would self-certify those.
I don’t think we have the definitive answer…?
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I have a dream that Tesla suddenly fields 2,500 cyber cabs in Texas.
But I worry that they won’t go over 2,500 nationally for some weird reason
Ride in Robotaxi through 8/23 for a shot to attend our Cybercab launch event
More rides = better odds
Autism and ADHD are the last bulwark against AI
For context, $MU is projected by Wall Street to make $400 billion before tax over the next two years.
(and we know Wall Street is generally too low in their estimates)
Micron is likely to start a massive share buyback campaign starting in December.
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$MU is already on track to become a true monster, and the upside looks even bigger from here.
Morgan Stanley’s call for ~$400B combined operating income in 2026-27 is nearly 40% of today’s $1.1T market cap, with gross margins hitting 85-90% thanks to AI-driven HBM pricing power. Supply remains tight well past 2027 as hyperscalers keep spending.
If Micron continues locking long-term HBM contracts, ramps next-gen capacity smartly, and leans into buybacks, earnings could compound further and push it toward multi-trillion status.
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Don’t send me Grok posts to refute my points. Grok and I aren’t looking at the same data. Grok doesn’t have my context. I’ve been investing just about my whole life.
Now, @gork on the other hand…
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I think that’s completely reasonable, and many of most of our clients are in a very similar situation. But we’ve had huge success investing in other names, while TSLA has been stuck in neutral.
LT I’m sure it will be fine, but there’s an opportunity cost to missing some of the other huge AI plays right now. And on a personal level I find it a bit frustrating that everything in AI except for Tesla seems to be progressing at warp speed right now.
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FSD prevented an accident for me this weekend.
New multi-year contracts are still being signed for A100 based data centers.
Those gpus are from around 2020.
So, they're getting nearly a decade of use out of them.
Also, I don't understand the depreciation argument at all.
What matters is how much money you earn from it.
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$UMAC closed at $19.36 when we released this video featuring our investment case just three weeks ago. @nerdalert and @HenryInvests nailed it.
Today I launched
It starts with a financial model for the robotaxi business, with plans to expand into more tools and insights around autonomous mobility over time.
Tesla x Lemonade = boring
Almost done with my first month using Lemonade for my Tesla FSD mileage based insurance.
Insuring a Model Y Launch, Model X Plaid, and Cybertruck Foundation for around $200/month depending on miles. 2 drivers.
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