Tomorrow could trigger the stock market's biggest rally
President Trump could become the 8th president in history to lose both the House and Senate to Democrats
What happened to the S&P after, on average:
• 1 month later: +2.1% (6 of 7 times positive)
• 3 months later: +10.7% (7 of 7 times positive)
• 6 months later: +17.5% (7 of 7 times positive)
• 1 year later: +15.5% (7 of 7 times positive)
This has only happened 7 times since 1954 and prediction markets have the odds this happens at 71%
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It’s happening:
$AAOI: -16.67%
$SNDK: -15.08%
$COHR: -13.12%
$AMD: -12.90%
$DELL: -12.89%
$MRVL: -12.63%
$NBIS: -12.15%
$CRWV: -11.24%
$LITE: -10.86%
$ANET: -9.22%
$SMCI: -8.38%
$NVDA: -5.61%
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The AI bubble might soon be popping:
$NBIS: -10.44%
$DELL: -8.67%
$AAOI: -8.62%
$COHR: -8.56%
$CRWV: -8.09%
$LITE: -7.99%
$SMCI: -7.50%
$SNDK: -6.99%
$ANET: -6.92%
$AMD: -5.54%
$MRVL: -5.48%
$NVDA: -2.68%
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Breaking: Michael Burry is choosing to buy Build-A-Bear over AI companies
Below are his reasonings:
1. The stock trades at 7x earnings with no debt
2. A buyout would value it around $60 to $65 a share
3. Build-A-Bear has bought back 25% of its shares since 2021
4. 1 in 4 Build-A-Bear shares is a bet that the stock falls, and short sellers would need about 9 days to buy them all back
Burry says Build-A-Bear $BBW could jump 50% "relatively quickly"
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Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing shows the whole AI boom is "catastrophically vulnerable"
Below are his reasonings:
1. Anthropic owes $537B for computer power, and pending deals could push it to $800B
2. Anthropic brings in about $65B a year, so it owes about 12x what it makes
3. Half of $537B goes to $AMZN, $GOOGL and $MSFT
4. Anthropic's sales growth slowed from 144% last quarter to 46% this quarter, while its compute costs jumped 78%
Burry says this setup works while AI keeps growing, but one slowdown could hit cause a collapse
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Michael Burry’s warnings are getting louder
Foreclosures hit highest level since 2019:
• Active foreclosure inventory up 37%
• Completed foreclosure sales are up 15%
• 90+ days late payments jumped 21% year over year
Michael Burry said months ago: "I think the housing market is starting to creak a bit. Housing prices might be falling already"
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Breaking: Michael Burry backs Ken Griffin's AI bubble warning
Griffin says AI chips are like airline seats:
• Once built, they cost almost nothing to run
• Build too many and prices go "into freefall"
• He says AI is "almost certainly" in a bubble
Burry backed Griffin saying "This is obvious to most with a working brain cell"
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Breaking: Michael Burry says S&P looks "uncannily close" to the 2000 dot-com crash
He splits the index into "leaders, broken, and busted"
- 23% of all 500 stocks in the index are down 40% or more from the highs
- Before the 2000 crash, about 32% of the 500 stocks were down 40%+
- Only 15 individual stocks hit a new high on Oct 6, out of 500 total
- Right before the 2000 crash, it was also just 15 stocks hitting new highs
Burry said he'll "continue to hold and to seek investments outside the S&P 500"
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BREAKING: Former Jack in the Box manager stole 120 bank deposits worth $232,282 and lost nearly all of it at the casino
Breaking: Peter Thiel's CMO filed a portfolio
@micsolana runs marketing at Founders Fund and founded Pirate Wires
Here's everything about what he owns:
• Palantir $PLTR (16.3%)
• SpaceX $SPCX (14.1%)
• Amazon $AMZN (14.0%)
• Tesla $TSLA (13.7%)
• ExxonMobil $XOM (7.5%)
• Cheniere Energy $LNG (7.0%)
• Constellation Energy $CEG (6.6%)
• Standard Nuclear $STDN (6.3%)
• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD (3.2%)
• Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM (2.9%)
• Nvidia $NVDA (2.9%)
• Broadcom $AVGO (2.8%)
• Micron Technology $MU (2.6%)
Full exits:
• None
Summary:
The Pirate Wires portfolio is concentrated in Founders Fund-style bets, Palantir and SpaceX at the top, with exposure to energy, nuclear and semiconductors
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Breaking: Mike Solana, Peter Thiel's CMO, the outspoken Silicon Valley podcasting darling, & a true Lover of America just launched his new Flagship Fund on Autopilot
Think of it like a Pirate Wires ETF of companies that will "Make America Exceptional'
Like $PLTR, $SPCX, $CEG, & more
It already has $55,000 of capital invested alongside
Your move
@RoKhanna
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Breaking: Michael Burry says the stock market is sitting on a "supervolcano"
He says every market top of the last 40 years looked calm right before it blew
Last 2 times stocks went nowhere for decades:
• 1929 to 1949: -58%
• 2000 to 2011: -40%
His warning: the next one is a long wait, not a crash
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it's pretty obvious what you have to do
@Nike
If you invested $100K into Victoria's Secret $VSXY after they announced bringing back the Fashion Show
You'd now be at $433,000
The AI bubble might soon be popping:
$NBIS: -10.44%
$DELL: -8.67%
$AAOI: -8.62%
$COHR: -8.56%
$CRWV: -8.09%
$LITE: -7.99%
$SMCI: -7.50%
$SNDK: -6.99%
$ANET: -6.92%
$AMD: -5.54%
$MRVL: -5.48%
$NVDA: -2.68%
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Michael Burry's complete holdings, per his Substack
Top tier:
• MercadoLibre $MELI [Long, 12%]
• Deckers $DECK [Long]
Second tier (9% each):
• Molina Healthcare $MOH [Long]
• Temple & Webster $TPW [Long]
Third tier (undisclosed %):
• JD $JD [Long]
• Birkenstock $BIRK [Long]
• Adobe $ADBE [Long]
• HCA Healthcare $HCA [Long]
• Fiserv $FISV [Long]
• Build-A-Bear Workshop $BBW [Long]
• Veeva Systems $VEEV [Long]
• Freddie Mac $FMCC [Long]
• PayPal $PYPL [Long]
• QXO $QXO [Long]
• Ero Copper $ERO [Long]
• BYD $BYDFF [Long]
Call options:
• JD $JD [Call, 2029]
• Zoetis $ZTS [Call, 2029]
• Sprouts Farmers Market $SFM [Call, 2028]
Put book (bearish, largest to smallest):
• Nasdaq 100 $NDX [Put, Sept 2027]
• Palantir $PLTR [Put, Sept 2027]
• Nvidia $NVDA [Put, Sept 2027]
• Semiconductor ETF $SOXX [Put, Sept 2027]
• Oracle $ORCL [Put, Dec 2027]
• Caterpillar $CAT [Put, Dec 2027]
• Micron $MU [Put, June 2027]
• Nebius $NBIS [Put, June 2027]
• MetLife $MET [Put, 2029]
Full exits:
• Lululemon $LULU [Long] - Swapped for Deckers
• Fannie Mae $FNMA [Long] - Entirety into Freddie Mac
• Flutter $FLUT [Long] - Rotated into Lululemon
• Zoetis $ZTS [Long] - Stock swapped for 2029 calls
• Sprouts Farmers $SFM [Long] - swapped 2028 calls
• Palantir $PLTR [Short] - Rolled into Sept 2027 puts
• CoreWeave $CRWV [Short] - Covered, no puts yet
• $MU, $NBIS, $NVDA, $ORCL, $CAT, $SOXX [Short] - All covered, replaced with puts
Summary: Burry's book almost entirely puts instead of shorts on the AI basket he's been bearish on. He's "moving timelines up" on when he expects the bubble to burst, and he's using tax-loss season to swap LULU→DECK and FNMA→FMCC while buying into names like Ero Copper, QXO, and BYD outside the AI trade
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Breaking: Michael Burry says markets grieve the same way every bull market top
And blames stimulus checks for delaying a crash
Here's his breakdown:
1. Denial comes first, the market top forms here, and it can last 6 to 9 months or longer
2. Anger follows, fueling the violent, steep drops early in a bear market
3. Bargaining comes next, where value investors poke at fallen names hoping for a bottom
4. Depression and acceptance come last, closing out the cycle
5. He says monetary and fiscal stimulus has interrupted this grieving process for two decades straight
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Breaking: Michael Burry says the stock market is in denial
Hinting at a repeat of the 2008 crash
Ask yourself why all these AI companies are rushing IPO
Michael Burry has been screaming the reason
*OPENAI RECENTLY TOLD INVESTORS ANNUALIZED REVENUE NEAR $50B: FT
OpenAI annualized revenues $20bn less than previously signaled
Breaking: Michael Burry says the cracks are already showing
Here's where he sees them:
1. Private equity and private credit are "getting torn apart under the surface of the calm"
2. Private equity firms own insurance companies, and he says those insurers are "holding too many bad assets"
3. Those insurers lend a big share of the money building AI data centers
4. Data center projects are already running into delays
5. Companies are building their own small AI models using "whatever is cheapest, even Chinese open weight models"
This explains Burry's short position for MetLife. He holds $MET puts expiring in 2029
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Don't overthink what stocks to buy
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump to award National Medal of Science, the highest honor for scientific achievement to the following tech leaders:
• Lisa Su, $AMD
• Elon Musk, $SPCX
• Sergey Brin, $GOOGL
• Jensen Huang, $NVDA
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And just like that Autopilot has its first investor who's earned $2,000,000 in fees after launching his flagship portfolio
> passionate investor managing own portfolio
> shares his stock picks publicly for free
> writes up conviction behind each investment for research
> thinks about monetizing his picks via Substack
> never does because of the upkeep + churn
*Discovers Autopilot
> realizes he can monetize the portfolio he's managing
> realizes he doesn't have to do any extra work
> realizes investors can connect their accounts and invest alongside automatically
> realizes he can charge a yearly fee for his trades
And now he's made $2,000,000 & changed his life forever
The next Bill Ackman is somewhere on Main Street waiting to be discovered, our whole goal is simply to find them
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Breaking: Michael Burry exposes how Microsoft is making its spending look smaller
Here's his reasoning:
1. Microsoft rents its data centers on leases that last 13 years on average
2. If you rent a building for most of its life, accounting rules count it as buying the building, so it goes into your spending numbers
3. Microsoft used to say its data centers last 15 years. A 13-year lease was most of that, so its leases counted as spending
4. Now Microsoft is saying its data centers last 25 years. The same 13-year lease is only about half of that, so it counts as rent and drops out of spending
5. That cut Microsoft's 2026 spending forecast to ~$175B, even though its CFO said the real spending plan "remains unchanged"
6. Microsoft has $329.1B of data center leases signed that haven't started yet, up 3.5x in 12 months
Burry says Microsoft is using these numbers "as a lever to get what it wants", and not one analyst asked about it
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