In times like this, if you're a long term investor, you don't want to be waffling about being in or out, you want to be stacking units systematically. Don't get confused by the traders, it's a separate game. On unit accumulation, depending on how long you've been in the game, it's helpful to think in "relative units" of the investment you did best with. I'll use $ETH because the math is easy and relates well to younger networks. ETH has ~120M units. Let's say I once held 10 ETH. Now I'm looking to stack $SOL, but SOL has ~636M units, or ~5.3x the # of units. Therefore, to have an equivalent position size in network terms, I'd need 53 SOL. If I want to own double the network % of SOL, that I owned of ETH, I'd need 106 SOL. Or, perhaps I'm considering $TIA, which has ~1.16B total supply, or ~9.7x the # of units of ETH. In that case, I'd need 97 units of TIA to have a network equivalent. If I want to place a bigger network bet on TIA, because the network value is lower than when I entered ETH, then 10x the % ownership would require me to accumulate 970 TIA. 100x the % ownership = 9,700 TIA. Going for significantly more ownership, at cheap prices, if you're right, can lead to asymmetric outcomes. $ZEC is another good example of this, since its supply mirrors $BTC's. And so it's easy to think of your "dream # of BTC," and aim to accumulate that in ZEC, if you're so inclined. Pick your networks of choice, and do the math. I have always found thinking in unit terms keeps me grounded, optimistic, and goal oriented in dreary times. I can then dream about future upside in the thick of the bull, but the important thing is to systematically stack the units with a high conviction methodology in the bear or early-bull pullbacks. In terms of where we are now, which is probably why most of you are still reading :) BTC has been bleeding out the long-tail while remaining resilient, with many names 20-40%+ down from the highs while BTC is down just shy of 10%. You can either say BTC has already bled the risk appetite out of the market and so most of the work is done, or you can say BTC hasn't dropped much so it'll be really terrible if it goes cliff diving. I'm sympathetic to the former view. I read this as an early-bull opportunity rather than a warning sign that this move was a "bull trap," and so I'm inclined to be a buyer. You have to respect the possibility of lower levels, and so tranche out any dry powder that remains with % cash used corresponding to % probability those levels are the local bottom - yes, you likely end up with some excess cash if not all levels are hit, but that's okay. And don't forget, there's already opportunity in front of you.

If you haven't noticed, @Backpack has been crushing. It's a CEX that runs like a blockchain, allowing for real time proof of reserves, as well as a nativity and fluidity between the TradFi and onchain worlds that's unmatched. Advantage appears small now, but will compound. Stats:

While I'm not an equities specialist, I do think the spell has been broken, and am viewing these violent rebounds as deadcats, with the expectation that crypto will catch shrapnel early, but also bottom earlier than equities do.

Finally reading "Broken Money" by @LynAldenContact and it's a good reminder that $BTC and other internet-native hard monies will most reward the patient ($ZEC the most credible complement to $BTC, in this category). From 2016-2025 there was a wave of impatience as the promise of blockchains drew crowds of people that didn't deeply understand Bitcoin, and treated the space as simply another tech platform. Bitcoin is more of a social reboot, than a technological one, and such a reboot takes decades to play out. Now, impatience is washing out to other seemingly faster moving waters, taking us closer to what things felt like in 2015 and before... which will once again reward those that understood all along.

Cash appears to have the greatest opportunity cost at the precipice of when you'll need it most. Have been nibbling here and there of late, but the confluence around October is too incredible to ignore.

I don’t see a new paradigm where majors are rotated out of, and select up-and-comers can sustain their swim against an outgoing tide for long. Instead, I think majors are telling us something, and people are finding reasons not to listen.

Although I nibbled my middle target ~a month ago (< 5% of available cash), still expecting the bottom two targets to be tested in Q2 or Q3. Reminder that I always remain significantly long $BTC in some form, increasingly through ETFs, to maintain exposure and peace of mind.