Chris Burniske
@cburniske
Partner @placeholdervc; co-author #Cryptoassets# 📔; formerly led crypto @ARKinvest. Xeets not financial advice. Disclaimer:
2.2K Following 341.5K Followers
@zzz56565 @OldSchoolXBT It was cautiously bullish. I’ve seen him make it out of a lot of barrels
Coming off the bottom, setting up for the barrel, conscious of the peril...
final piece we need is a @cburniske bullpost, the permission to dream
$ZECBTC continues to put in work that suggests this cycle could indeed be different for $ZEC
In the dying breaths of this cycle it doesn't so much matter what $ZEC goes to in $USD terms from here; enough good work has already been done there. It does matter, however, at the next bottom where $ZECBTC & $ZECUSD consolidates. Over the last couple months, the work it's done in $ZECBTC terms is most notable to me.
Put another way, this late cycle price action from $ZEC is not all that unique in $USD terms, but it is unique in $BTC terms. At the same time, you have to always respect that, for now, $BTC sets the entire mood of the cryptoasset market on a medium-to-long term time frame. You can escape $BTC's mood-setting for a time, but likely not for long.
Before new-age trolls claim something about me and $ZEC that's untrue, I've been watching, learning & supporting this one since launch in 2016, you can check the X receipts.
Show more
While I'm not an equities specialist, I do think the spell has been broken, and am viewing these violent rebounds as deadcats, with the expectation that crypto will catch shrapnel early, but also bottom earlier than equities do.
Show more
(said despite expecting more market pain ahead)
slowly, slowly, then all at once.
slowly, slowly, then all at once.
Almost everything in crypto that failed the first time will eventually work sometime in the future.
Bitcoin looked like it had failed many times in the past. The same will happen with NFTs, creator tokens, DAOs, gaming, TCRs, onchain reputation, rebase tokens, decentralized storage etc
As time passes each of these ideas will make even more sense. I just think we’re still too early for many of them, and we don’t quite understand the need yet. But eventually it’ll make sense.
Show more
Finally reading "Broken Money" by @LynAldenContact and it's a good reminder that $BTC and other internet-native hard monies will most reward the patient ($ZEC the most credible complement to $BTC, in this category).
From 2016-2025 there was a wave of impatience as the promise of blockchains drew crowds of people that didn't deeply understand Bitcoin, and treated the space as simply another tech platform. Bitcoin is more of a social reboot, than a technological one, and such a reboot takes decades to play out.
Now, impatience is washing out to other seemingly faster moving waters, taking us closer to what things felt like in 2015 and before... which will once again reward those that understood all along.
Show more
Cash appears to have the greatest opportunity cost at the precipice of when you'll need it most.
Have been nibbling here and there of late, but the confluence around October is too incredible to ignore.
Show more
Early signs of emotional capitulation emerging, but far from apathy.
I don’t see a new paradigm where majors are rotated out of, and select up-and-comers can sustain their swim against an outgoing tide for long. Instead, I think majors are telling us something, and people are finding reasons not to listen.
Show more
Saylor will get blamed but it was always in the cards.
Bitcoin is the most honest macro asset -- in its design, it serves as a forward looking mirror -- I wonder all the time about what it's trying to tell us lays ahead.
Although I nibbled my middle target ~a month ago (< 5% of available cash), still expecting the bottom two targets to be tested in Q2 or Q3. Reminder that I always remain significantly long $BTC in some form, increasingly through ETFs, to maintain exposure and peace of mind.
Show more
I'm not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are:
~$80K: Nov '25 low, local low of this "bear"
~$74K: April '25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR's cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near '21 high
~$58K: 200W SMA & on-chain cost basis (RV = ~$56K)
~$50K & below: bottom of the weekly range below, psychological, below this number you would see "death of BTC" calls once again
Importantly, I don't care what happens. If we rally from here, I'll ride what I have and diversify my portfolio, if we fall apart I'll buy more $BTC & select cryptoassets.
Show more
You should never wait on me; be your own guru.
@cburniske Waiting on your signal to deploy capital
Watching with interest, but not buying yet.
Expect a bounce, but doubt the bloodletting is done.
I'm not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are:
~$80K: Nov '25 low, local low of this "bear"
~$74K: April '25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR's cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near '21 high
~$58K: 200W SMA & on-chain cost basis (RV = ~$56K)
~$50K & below: bottom of the weekly range below, psychological, below this number you would see "death of BTC" calls once again
Importantly, I don't care what happens. If we rally from here, I'll ride what I have and diversify my portfolio, if we fall apart I'll buy more $BTC & select cryptoassets.
Show more
I'm not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are:
~$80K: Nov '25 low, local low of this "bear"
~$74K: April '25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR's cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near '21 high
~$58K: 200W SMA & on-chain cost basis (RV = ~$56K)
~$50K & below: bottom of the weekly range below, psychological, below this number you would see "death of BTC" calls once again
Importantly, I don't care what happens. If we rally from here, I'll ride what I have and diversify my portfolio, if we fall apart I'll buy more $BTC & select cryptoassets.
Show more
Friendly reminder for those that have been fooled by randomness
No cryptoasset escapes for long if $BTC keeps going down.
$BTC monthly and weekly close today
Monthly failed to hold support
Weekly bear retesting the breakdown level
After having been bearish from 110k and flipping bullish at $84k I'm leaning bearish again at $91k here
Closed my positions and gonna just wait for $100k+ or lower
Show more
May the descending bear wash out the bittercoiners so that we can go back to having nocoiners and hodlers.
In the dying breaths of this cycle it doesn't so much matter what $ZEC goes to in $USD terms from here; enough good work has already been done there. It does matter, however, at the next bottom where $ZECBTC & $ZECUSD consolidates. Over the last couple months, the work it's done in $ZECBTC terms is most notable to me.
Put another way, this late cycle price action from $ZEC is not all that unique in $USD terms, but it is unique in $BTC terms. At the same time, you have to always respect that, for now, $BTC sets the entire mood of the cryptoasset market on a medium-to-long term time frame. You can escape $BTC's mood-setting for a time, but likely not for long.
Before new-age trolls claim something about me and $ZEC that's untrue, I've been watching, learning & supporting this one since launch in 2016, you can check the X receipts.
Show more
