Frank Downing
@downingARK
Director of Research, AI & Cloud @ARKinvest
Disclosure:
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Stop thinking of “Frontier AI” as only the most intelligent models. Think instead of the Pareto Frontier.
That’s the frontier that matters: any model below it is, by definition, overpriced for the intelligence it delivers.
Today, OpenAI has the most models on the Pareto Frontier (3).
Anthropic, Moonshot, xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek each have 1 frontier model.
Data from @ArtificialAnlys
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OpenAI is now up to 10 million active users for their agent products. Incredible progress, and yet still so much room to grow relative to a TAM of ~70 million knowledge workers in the US and ~1 billion globally.
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To those worried about accelerated depreciation for GPUs, this is a great example of nearly 4 year old chips being rented out in a (likely) multi-year deal
And the buyer is (likely) getting a great return too given these GPUs will power in-demand models at 60-70% GM to Anthropic
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Grok 4.3 jumps above Anthropic's Sonnet 4.6 in intelligence and costs 1/10th to run. Nice update from @xai.
