What's interesting to me is that with such good weather, one might expect California to have low GDP & productivity growth, instead of the reality where it typically grows faster than the US as a whole.

So, for (3), we ask: what would revenue potential look like without step-up? Taxing gains at death would raise revenue directly. But, crucially, it'd also make realizations less responsive to tax—there'd be much less of a reason to defer—so we'd get a higher Laffer curve peak.

New Survey of Consumer Finances data from the Federal Reserve out today. With that, can update my chart on real generational wealth. Suggests Gen Z wealth is, on average, outpacing prior generations controlling for age.

The new Survey of Consumer Finance is out! - Median household net worth is $215.9k (up 2% since 2022) - Median assets in transaction accounts is $8,200 (-6% since 2022) (Percent changes are in real (adj for inflation) terms.)

wow. Hyperscaler bonds as a percentage of net new Treasury borrowing FCF imploding and blue chip IG issuance competing with the risk free rate. who had that on their bingo card in 2023

It's becoming more rate-sensitive however. Moreover, computers and software are contributing 25 bps to core PCE inflation which, even if you assume no relative price declines elsewhere, is an annoyance for the Fed but not the majority of the current 1pp miss on core PCE inflation

So many of the takes on how AI will impact the economy are based on conjecture rather than data. At Stripe Economics, we want to help change that. Stripe sits on one of the most interesting real-time datasets to understand how AI is changing the economy, and we're excited to pair our data with data on AI usage via @OpenRouter (which is subject to close). Stripe Economics is our way of sharing insights from that data with the world. In our latest post, we lay out our empirical agenda for AI and how we think Stripe data can contribute to answering important questions. Our goal is to give more visibility into what we’re thinking about and invite others with similar interests to collaborate. We welcome proposals and ideas for collaboration at stripeeconomics@stripe.com!

There’s a lot of uncertainty around AI & its economic effects. Much focus so far has been on 1st order questions, but 2nd order questions are also important. Today we lay out an AI research agenda for @Stripe Economics & invite thoughts & proposals.

AI capex being more & more financed by interest-rate sensitive means like corp bonds means you should at once be 1) less worried about an out of control “bubble” as there are more breaks that can prevent overheating, 2) more concerned about investment crowd out, eg less housing.