It's also not much of a K if you look at disposable income, including capital gains. Real disposable income has grown 10.0% for the lowest quintile since 2018 and 12.7% for the highest.

The reason for the decennial census to ask about race/ethnicity has nothing to do with "wokeness". To have good employment, GDP, & income data, we need good population estimates underpinning them. Demographic detail allows better alignment of pop estimates with known realities.

A good chunk of economic activity is going to remain human-driven: here we are 30 yrs since the start of the dot com boom & e-commerce is still <20% of retail trade. Agents likely grow this more. But then what's interesting is how the agentic economy sits alongside the human one.

You would need an extra full percentage point of additional total factor productivity growth every year for the next 10 years just to stabilize debt-to-GDP. It's plausible we may get that magnitude of boost from AI for *some* years. But I would not bet we get that for *ten* years

As far as the recent increase in business formation goes, I suspect the falling costs of applying for an EIN are at play. I had my first experience using Stripe atlas today, and it's quite amazing how quick and simple it is.

GDP per capita can't explain everything in life, but it can probably explain most of *this* (including things strongly correlated with GDP per capita, like income, and that drive GDP per capita, like agglomeration effects).

One of the most under-rated global cultural changes is that upon migrating to England, Indian Hindu and Sikh women's employment converges with natives. My hypothesis is that this is due to caste sanctions weakening overseas.

Dallas Fed economists produced an alternate measure of their trimmed mean inflation gauge that changes the distribution of prices that get filtered out in a way that is more symmetric. The current version is asymmetric: It trims the top 31% of prices and the bottom 24%. This reflects the average distribution of price changes or "skew" between 1977 and 2009 (over this period the distribution was negatively skewed—the largest monthly outliers were more often steep price declines than steep increases—so cutting deeper into the top tail best matched the headline trend.) The revised version uses the average price data for ten more years (1967-2009) and adjusts the filters accordingly. The result is more symmetric. It drops the bottom 19% and the top 20% of price changes. This 19/20 trimmed mean shows core inflation at 2.6% over the year ended June, up from 2.2% from the 24/31 trimmed mean, but both are below the 3.3% core PCE reading for the same month. "This signals some of the strength in core inflation is likely noise or one-off disturbances unlikely to be repeated, but the medium trend is likely still more elevated than currently suggested by the original trimmed mean."

One weird thing about the latest round of YIMBY / SF governance discourse is that it is almost entirely about building within SF city limits*** Yes SF should build a lot more about also… SF Bay Area suburbs are egregious underbuilders

Breaking my 6 year X "fast" (I'm not sure what potato is either) for a look into how AI companies are reaching customers around the world faster than previous generations of internet businesses. Our new analysis of AI companies points to localization increasingly becoming a product advantage.