Our leading indicators show that both global growth and inflation impulses are now firmly negative.
The chop we have seen in our global growth diffusion has ended with a clear negative impulse. This suggests both growth and inflation surprises are biased negative over the next 6 months.
New-home inventory stands at 8.5 months of supply, but completed new homes represent just two months of supply, compared with 5.8 months in early 2009.
Source: @EPBResearch
Unlike the dot-com bubble, when global technology stocks surged far ahead of earnings, the current rally has been supported by stronger earnings growth.
Source: @steve_donze
Anthropic is estimated to generate more quarterly revenue than established corporate giants including Intel, Uber, Coca-Cola, and Netflix.
Source: @BoringBiz_
Since late 2022, output per worker in the three most AI-intensive industries has grown 5% annually, more than double its historical pace and well above the 1.3% growth recorded across the rest of the private sector.
Source: @EPBResearch
Among major developed economies, the US has the shortest average government debt maturity, at 5.9 years, and the highest share of short-term issuance in gross borrowing.
Source: @FinancialTimes
An estimated 1.5 million home sellers competed for just 929,000 buyers in September, the largest supply-demand imbalance in Redfin’s records dating back to 2013.
Source: @WSJ