The worst-case scenario for the United States is becoming increasingly realistic, and I will briefly explain why.
@quxiaoyin raised many valid points, and I agree with her. First of all:
-China certainly does not place such strong emphasis on open source because it cares so deeply about humanism, but because it is a strategy to attract many users, gain market share, put pressure on US models, and also because the models are increasingly being trained on Huawei hardware (think of DeepSeek 4), allowing China to host the entire stack domestically.
-But the underlying logic is far more important: The United States is still building too few data centers to meet future demand.
@ChrisGillett wrote an outstanding analysis on this, which I shared a week ago. In short, based on SemiAnalysis data, demand is greater than what is currently being built in terms of data centers.
-Even more importantly, however, the United States lacks sufficient energy and grid capacity. This is a problem that will become much more severe in the near future. China, by contrast, is addressing the issue through a massive expansion of its energy supply. Solar capacity: in 2025 alone, China installed as much solar capacity as the United States did in 10 to 15 years. China is also building 36 nuclear power plants, significantly more than the United States, and is installing them faster.
-In addition, China is managing to become more independent through Huawei chips, even though the country still lags far behind NVIDIA. But here, China is betting on quantity rather than quality.
In short: China is a real threat in the AI race, and the situation for the United States is becoming increasingly precarious. This is also the main reason why China is to be kept away from SOTA LLMs at all costs, so as not to jeopardize the lead under any circumstances.