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John Wang
@j0hnwang
crypto + perps @kalshi | everything is a momentum game
11.4K Following    61.9K Followers
America, you're up 🇺🇸 Prediction markets on Phantom are now rolling out to all US users. Call BTC’s next move, Sunday’s game, or election night—right where you already trade, swap and spend. Discover. Chat. Predict. Powered by @Kalshi
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Before the S&P 500 became the default investment for millions of Americans, it was just a statistical experiment. In 1923, the Standard Statistics Company began publishing a weekly index tracking 233 American companies. The idea was simple: instead of following individual stocks, investors could measure the performance of the broader market. By 1926, the company had introduced a daily index of 90 stocks, known as the S&P 90. It was one of the earliest attempts to turn the stock market into a single, measurable number. In 1941, Standard Statistics merged with Poor’s Publishing, forming Standard & Poor’s. Then, on March 4, 1957, the index expanded from 90 to 500 companies. The modern S&P 500 was born. In 1976, Vanguard launched the first index mutual fund available to individual investors, tracking the S&P 500. For the first time, ordinary Americans could buy broad exposure to the country’s largest companies without picking stocks themselves. In 1993, SPY launched as the first U.S.-listed ETF, making that exposure even easier to trade. And today, they’re partnering with us at Kalshi to grow the frontier of finance with event contracts and futures.
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S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets. The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market. Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings. These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone. Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives. Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts. Think about what that opens up. An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues. Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving. Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact. The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
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Introducing the fastest crosschain swaps on the market. Crosschain transactions on @fomo now land in <1s. A week ago, we rolled out our own internal bridge to a small % of users. Public rollout of fomo bridge begins now.
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born to consume, forced to produce modern society summed up in one picture
every single review i've read of the elizabeth holmes movie has just left me more confused about what to expect
"Doug Lorch appears unassuming - a retired IBM programmer with a gray beard, glasses, and a duck Facebook avatar, living quietly in Santa Barbara and driving a red Miata. Doug has no special expertise in international affairs, but he has a healthy curiosity about what's happening. He reads the New York Times. He can find Kazakhstan on a map. So he volunteered for the Good Judgment Project. Once a day, for an hour or so, his dining room table became his forecasting center, where he opened his laptop, read the news, and tried to anticipate the fate of the world." - Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Stablecoins exported the US dollar Tokenized stocks export the US capital markets
Introducing Catalyst. What do you believe? How would you trade on it? You notice data centers are popping-up everywhere, gold will skyrocket, or just know that Labubus will go out of fashion. Catalyst researches your ideas, builds the optimal strategy, monitors events, and executes trades. Autonomously.
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i was honestly rlly looking forward to the second Zuck movie but seems like the Rotten Tomatoes are forecasted to be super low Only 49% on Kalshi?? the first Facebook movie got 96%
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Equity index perps, finally in America The people want RWAs!
Today we launched the first stock index perpetual future in America. You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap. Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to do things like take a short position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down? One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time. This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.
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pretty cool to see event risk transfer happen in an insurance-like context for farmers full circle moment for the derivatives industry starting with the dojima rice exchange in japan to goat herders now in event contracts
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He has saved thousands of California acres from wildfires. The government is now increasing his labor costs by 400%, which could drive him out of business. This is Tim Arrowsmith's story:
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NEW: Top Kalshi perps trade this week A trader opened a 2.65 bitcoin:native long ($172k) on June 22 at $65,192 Closed a few months later at $85,650 for +$54,170 profit
JUST IN: $META is nearing a $2 trillion valuation after surging 40% over the past month
i thought more about it. beni, sorry for being a dick. i shouldn't have attacked you personally. it was cocky and unnecessary, and i should have stuck to the facts. i do want to clarify one thing: our incentives pay for liquidity, not wash trading. the claim that we’re incentivizing wash trading is incorrect, but i should have explained why instead of making it personal. this has made clear we need to do a better job explaining how our incentives work and the safeguards we have in place. we’ve laid out the full context here:
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Idk who needs to hear this, but every exchange has wash trading. Kalshi's has been excessive, but that doesn't mean they're the only ones doing it. Polymarket Perps has $15B in total notional volume. The wallets I highlighted account for 87% of all perp volume on Polymarket, and they most likely belong to @jump_. Are we really going to pretend these accounts aren't wash trading? They're doing billions in volume with virtually zero PnL.
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Hey Beni, Seems like a bunch of wires got crossed here so I just wanted to set the record straight. Your original claim was that Kalshi’s crypto prediction market volume was fake. The chart from Artemis shows prediction market volume share, not perps. We don’t do rebates for crypto prediction markets. Also, the way that contracts <> notional $ is calculated is universal amongst prediction markets and same with poly so it’s apple-to-apples. Separately on perps you claimed that “Here SCM means market makers that are selected by Kalshi lmfao”. This isn’t true. Anyone can become a Self-Clearing Member of a CFTC regulated exchange as long as they meet the regulatory requirements. “Fair access” is a reg requirement for us. All exchanges run rebate and incentive programs to help provide better liquidity on the exchange for traders. CME does it. So does Hyperliquid and Binance (in fact they run NEGATIVE market maker rebates). I’m the first to admit that it’s early days for perps for us given we're building a new product in untrodden territory (US perps). But the core difference between Kalshi and offshore perp exchanges is that while other exchanges run deals in the dark, we need to file our incentive programs publicly and so what you see is truly what you get.
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Last week in crypto: nothing stops this train
Metals launched last week and nearly 40% of perps traders have already traded them. They're growing way faster than we expected.