As liquidity concentrates on Kalshi, every new market becomes easier to launch and faster to scale. In almost half the time as crypto markets, Kalshi has scaled its commodities prediction markets to $400M in monthly volume. This is more than 4x crypto markets at the same point in their lifecycle.

Oops just get affiliated with a green hat 🫪 I am now part of the @Kalshi team and focused on growth for Perps! Ready for the new adventures and let’s have fun building together for cool stuff 🥸 DM me or I will DM you!

It can be easy to dismiss this as “Binance + Kalshi is being manipulated” rather than actual price discovery The manipulation argument of “hammering the close” would certainly make sense if Synth had sampled only the final 60 seconds of each 15-minute market as that’s the actual window feeding the resolution TWAP. But they didn’t: Synth sampled across the full 15 minutes. If there were widespread manipulation these markets simply wouldn’t have scaled like they have, retail would’ve burned out a while ago, MMs would limit liquidity on orderbook against toxic flow and volume would drop like we’ve seen on Poly We actually saw exactly that with the manipulation rife on Poly’s short-term crypto markets earlier this year, followed by a mass migration of users from Poly to Kalshi because of this (image attached). And kudos to the @SynthdataCo guys being actually one of the first to post about this manipulation publicly! The reason why Kalshi has stayed more resilient to manipulation is attributable to: 1. A 60s TWAP for resolution price (Poly just took a single snapshot) 2. KYC + surveillance banning bad actors (yes market manipulation is a crime) 3. Aggregated Oracle Pricing (Poly used only Binance, whereas Kalshi uses weighted average of many CEXs specifically excluding Binance) Prediction markets certainly aren’t perfect oracles of truth, but I do think the inherent forward-looking nature of them has helped add an extra layer of richness to price discovery that isn’t captured by spot prices alone

It can be easy to dismiss this as “Binance + Kalshi is being manipulated” rather than actual price discovery The manipulation argument of “hammering the close” would certainly make sense if Synth had sampled only the final 60 seconds of each 15-minute market as that’s the actual window feeding the resolution TWAP. But they didn’t: Synth sampled across the full 15 minutes. If there were widespread manipulation these markets simply wouldn’t have scaled like they have, retail would’ve burned out a while ago, MMs would limit liquidity on orderbook against toxic flow and volume would drop like we’ve seen on Poly We actually saw exactly that with the manipulation rife on Poly’s short-term crypto markets earlier this year, followed by a mass migration of users from Poly to Kalshi because of this (image attached). And kudos to the @SynthdataCo guys being actually one of the first to post about this manipulation publicly! The reason why Kalshi has stayed more resilient to manipulation is attributable to: 1. A 60s TWAP for resolution price (Poly just took a single snapshot) 2. KYC + surveillance banning bad actors (yes market manipulation is a crime) 3. Aggregated Oracle Pricing (Poly used only Binance, whereas Kalshi uses weighted average of many CEXs specifically excluding Binance) Prediction markets certainly aren’t perfect oracles of truth, but I do think the inherent forward-looking nature of them has helped add an extra layer of richness to price discovery that isn’t captured by spot prices alone

Kalshi is hiring a Trader Sales Lead for Perps. You will own top trader relationships end-to-end: - sourcing and onboarding power users - white-gloved support and offering incentives - host traders at premier events like F1 or US Open Perps represent the first step-function upgrade in a long time and Kalshi is the first regulated US exchange for this exciting new asset class. If you're hungry, embedded in trader networks, and want to help build the next venue serious traders (not just crypto but also tradfi options/stock/commodities traders) actually want to trade on, this is the role for you.