HERE'S THE ANTHROPIC MODEL: Anthropic will go public at $2T in Oct '26 and will be a $1T ARR company and $10T+ company Dec' 2030 as the winner of AI. Here's how Anthropic gets to $1T ARR in 2030: - 2026E: $125B ARR +14x YoY w/ 5 GW live - 2027E: $266B ARR + 114% YoY w/ 10 GW live - 2028E: $462B ARR +73% YoY w/ 16 GW live - 2029E: $700B ARR +52% YoY w/ 23 GW live - 2030E: $1T ARR + 42% YoY w/ 30 GW live I'm dropping my full Excel model modeling out: - ARR by business model (e.g Consumer, B2B, Enterprise, API) - API business broken down by model type (e.g Fable 5.1, Mythos, Opus, Sonnet) - Training costs and inference cost as a % of revenue - Gross Margin ($ ARR per MW and Cost of Compute per MW) as well as forecasting GW secured. - Net ARR (vs Gross ARR reported by trackers) removing marketplace pay out, Meta, Chinese AI labs - and more I also share the @artemis thesis for WHY Anthropic is the AWS of AI and winner of AI in the enterprise (and open source and ANT / OpenAI can win) Get the full model here: Full Disclosure: I don't have inside information. I took what's publicly available from the July '26 @SemiAnalysis_ model and added my own judgement based on public information and my own world views. I've spent a life time modeling as a former HF and VC analyst. I'll update the model as soon as the S-1 drops.