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Jukan
@jukan05
@citrini | Not Investment Advice | DYODD
Joined September 2024
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【Tianfeng Securities Overseas Technology】 Takeaways from an Interview with SanDisk IRD 1. Pricing remains a slightly larger contributor to FY27 Q1 earnings growth, but it is reasonable to estimate that pricing and volume each account for roughly half. 2. Volumes under long-term agreements are also fixed, with no room for adjustment. In many cases, volumes are specified not only annually but also quarterly or even monthly. Product types—including TLC/QLC and process nodes—are also explicitly stipulated. 3. HBF is not taking away HBM’s addressable market; it represents an additional memory tier. It is specifically designed for inference rather than training. In inference workloads, read operations significantly outnumber write operations. 4. YMTC is expected to capture an 80% share of the Chinese market. However, China’s market is growing so rapidly that even this would not be enough to satisfy demand. The impact of YMTC’s capacity expansion is material, but it is unlikely to become a major risk to global supply and demand over the next several years. 5. Asian investors are concerned about price declines in Q4 and Q1. However, the company has seen no signs of pricing deterioration to date and does not expect a material change in the 2027 supply-demand balance. The market remains tight. In fact, NBM customers are returning to request higher volumes or longer contract durations. 6. Finally, the company was asked, “What is the market’s biggest misconception about SanDisk?” The response remained extremely bullish. The market is still adjusting to a “new reality”—the sustainability of the business has fundamentally changed. Despite the company providing a range of supporting metrics, the market continues to question the sustainability of its business model.“The market is essentially telling you that the company’s terminal value is zero.” $SNDK
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