Julie Hyman
@juleshyman
Anchor Morning Brief 9-9:30am and Market Catalysts 10am-11am ET @YahooFinance.
1.7K Following 21.8K Followers
Remember Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan?
3% GDP growth
3% deficit-to-GDP ratio
3M barrels/day additional oil production
How's it going? Let's review ⬇️
20% of federal tax revenue goes toward debt servicing, per Simon White @ Bloomberg.
More neocloud debt: Nebius offering $4.5B of senior convertible notes. $NBIS down 8% premarket after 7.6% slump yesterday.
The only time in history where the 30yr went from the 4%s to the 6%s within 6 months was June 1999.
73 trading days later, SPX was in a correction.
9 months later, SPX had its last ATH before falling into a years-long bear market.
To be clear, the 30yr is still under 6% now.
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"Equity markets are not prepared for a swift move towards 6% for the 30yr." -- Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG
A remarkable essay.
On our drive to pick up my kid from camp in rural northeastern PA, there were many, many anti-data center signs.
Hyperscalers & neoclouds are throwing so much cash at the data center buildout. The problem is, the bottlenecks can't be solved by money. My latest:
Great line from Brian Jacobsen at Annex Wealth Management:
The Fed needs to be a thermostat, not a thermometer.
One positive legacy of Eric Adams: fewer rat sightings in NYC.
Good thing this landed after markets closed….
SCOOP: Warsh is considering reducing the number of policy meetings the Fed holds each year. He raised the idea at this week's meeting, according to four people with knowledge of the situation.
He left the impression that a revised schedule could be decided on before the next meeting in mid-September, even if the changes would not be carried out until later.
Warsh spoke about the legal authorities the Fed must abide by regarding the minimum number of meetings it needs to hold in a year and asked officials to reach out to him with their thoughts, the people said
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Warsh says the market is reacting to data vs. forward guidance, because it doesn't have forward guidance.
But investors are still using data to try to extrapolate what the Fed will do.
So why does he seem to think he's magically taking the Fed out the equation?
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It seems slightly premature for Warsh to take a victory lap on achieving market-Fed divorce.
The four largest hyperscalers will collectively spend more than $1 trillion on capex next year: Evercore's Mark Mahaney. (Including $300B each by Google & Amazon)
This is no Palantir Chore Coat.
whoa new OpenAi merch store dropped with an actual lifestyle photoshoot
And then there's SK Hynix
-38%/+180% (6/22)
Down from high/up on year
Kospi -25%/+62% (6/22)
SOX -11%/+83% (6/22)
Nasdaq 100 -2.7%/+18% (6/02)
MU -19%/+243% (6/25)
Down from high/up on year
Kospi -25%/+62% (6/22)
SOX -11%/+83% (6/22)
Nasdaq 100 -2.7%/+18% (6/02)
MU -19%/+243% (6/25)
A wing and a prayer.
Analysts at 12 of SpaceX's underwriters have now issued ratings on the stock. Would you believe they're all buys?
Musk's endeavors have always called for faith from investors. Now we wait to see if it pays off.
$SPCX
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A wing and a prayer.
Analysts at 12 of SpaceX's underwriters have now issued ratings on the stock. Would you believe they're all buys?
Musk's endeavors have always called for faith from investors. Now we wait to see if it pays off.
$SPCX
Show more
