Obvious political tampering with the Census Bureau on display in this report. Lacks the most basic of standards. No transparency on methods or data This is the road to Argentina-fying statistical agencies. Bad bad bad Lutnick has a lot to answer for.

Breaking news: Ken Griffin’s hedge fund told investors that it had offloaded most of the 'aggregate risk' from Situational Awareness’s book, having completed almost 100 block trades that amounted to $4bn in recent weeks to unload the positions.

The world does not need an artificial intelligence that diminishes humanity; rather, it needs human intelligence enlightened by wisdom, political authority guided by conscience and technological innovation directed by charity. Only then will artificial intelligence become not a rival to humanity but a servant of the common good.

Researchers studied nearly 100 years of US rental prices and living costs. They constructed a new measure of shelter price series that eliminates the long-run decline in real rents in the CPI. This paper is featured in our latest Inflation Research Digest:

Please prepare yourself for months of shameless self-promotion, mute me on socials, feel free to avoid me in public etc, because my next book — A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — is now officially available for pre-orders.

There’s a strong “We’re all trying to find the guy who did this” element to large US tech companies discovering that the modern information environment is chaotic, low trust, driven by whim, does not reward truth-finding, is not self-correcting, given to faddish obsessions, etc

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the decision to make a surprise change to debt-management in a CNBC interview on Thursday. Bessent said markets weren’t properly pricing fundamentals, warranting a more activist approach. He also said plans for fiscal consolidation are forthcoming. “We're trying to signal that we think that this is a thinly traded area of the market, that we're in August, and there's been a lot of corporate issuance that's influenced the market. And we believe that there are many underlying factors in turn that the market is not looking at, and we are going to make a market in these.” “We believe that the yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals…. We believe that the liquidity, especially in the 30-year point, is very poor. And we are in the administration, we are, be announcing probably at the end of this week, beginning of next week an increased focus on fiscal consolidation.” “People have bad information. I have asymmetric information, so I think that the market should think, well, why would we have joined the Japanese in the intervention at this time? Do we know something the market doesn't know that, in terms of being willing to do you know what I would call a Treasury twist here in terms of the bond market? What do I know that the market doesn't know? So I think the market's probably gotten a little ahead of itself, a lot of people not much to do in August.”

For the first time, a majority of adults under 30 say they’re more concerned than excited about #AI#. Their concern is now on par with those in their 30s and 40s, and those 65 and up.

This October it’s time to once again pull back the curtain on the world of investment, with personal finance stories from the people who shape the markets. How I Invest My Money Volume 2 is published October 20th, and in this updated volume Brian Portnoy @bportnoy_ spotlights a new group of financial experts – from portfolio managers and financial advisors to fintech founders and thought leaders – who offer candid insights into their personal financial decisions. Returning voices from Volume One, including @morganhousel and @christine_benz, also share how they manage their own money today: What’s changed, what still works, and the lessons they’ve learned along the way. These updated excerpts sit alongside the new contributions from some of the biggest names in the industry including @Ritholtz, Kyla Scanlon, Ben Hunt and many, many more. Available to pre-order in all formats now, published October 20th!

Interesting tension right now with the new Fed Chair emphasizing less forward guidance and more market ‘independence,’ while the US Treasury Secretary is focused on doing whatever can to lower long-term yields

Treasury said it is at least doubling the maximum size of purchases of longer-dated nominal coupons in its program to buy back government debt, raising the cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation beginning Sept. 9.

After a soft 20 yr auction on the heels of an eventful morning for the US Treasury, some further thoughts here on what has transpired. In my opinion, no lunch is free here. On one hand, we get lower long end rates (at least for today as I question the sustainability, just like with FX intervention) and Bessent is buying long term Treasuries well below par, likely those with coupons with a one handle or less that are trading at $.50 on the dollar and issued when short rates were at zero. But, by replacing that with T-bills currently yielding around 3.75%, US interest expense will go higher. Also, in response, the US dollar is trading at 3 month low today and if sustained, that imports inflation and could facilitate foreign selling of Treasuries for those not FX hedged. Lastly, with even more short term bond issuance, it ties the hands (among other ties, like excessive gov’t spending) of Kevin Warsh & Co because raising short term rates (which I do not think will happen anytime soon) would be even more expensive for the US government, further inflate US debts and deficits, and result in another rise in long term rates. And, what happens if inflation flares up again, if Warsh doesn’t hike, the long end will do it for him. What a box we are in.

We’ve been writing for a few years about shift away from Great Moderation Era back to something that might look like what I’ve termed “Temperamental Era” … this chart highlights relationship between bond yields and stock prices in these two distinct eras (more on subject here:

9 tech cos had~$3T of off-balance-sheet commitments, mostly AI-related, an analysis of securities filings shows, about triple what the companies owe under their outstanding leases and long-term borrowings. Eye-opening report by @rudegeair and @pswsj

Stripe has finalized an agreement to acquire OpenRouter, a startup that helps companies switch between artificial intelligence models, for more than $7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Learnt a new word today: Yolofolio From YOLO (you only live once) + portfolio. When your entire investment strategy/portfolio is based on YOLO gambles from cryptocurrency to sports prediction markets... via @kylascan's newsletter