Skanda Amarnath
@IrvingSwisher
Executive Director - @employamerica @skandaamarnath on other sites. RTs/likes != endorsements. Charitable interpretation advised
5.5K Following 32.4K Followers
Old enough to remember when DOGE was marketed as a masterstroke fiscal policy shortcut for lowering interest rates.
Obvious political tampering with the Census Bureau on display in this report. Lacks the most basic of standards. No transparency on methods or data
This is the road to Argentina-fying statistical agencies. Bad bad bad
Lutnick has a lot to answer for.
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@mattyglesias What's also funny about this is that Massachusetts is dependent on LNG imports from other countries due to pipeline constraints and the Jones Act.
So maybe Markey was really engaged in a "Massachusetts First" energy policy agenda ;)
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@mattyglesias What's also funny about this is that Massachusetts is dependent on LNG imports from other countries due to pipeline constraints and the Jones Act.
So maybe Markey was really engaged in a "Massachusetts First" energy policy agenda ;)
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@AviTillu1 @employamerica @IrvingSwisher Here's the same exercise (fixing age-group composition at July 2025) for the employment-population ratio:
@WarrenPies The questions are whether/how a median FOMC voter (Jefferson/Paulson) justifies a forecast change—on the basis of either the lagged data or forward-looking geopolitical/supply-chain developments—that now says "tighter policy is required to get back on the disinflation track."
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@WarrenPies On July 9, Williams said he expected to see core PCE at a run rate of 0.2% "or even lower."
The June print was, in fact, even lower. Pre-PPI estimates for July core PCE that I've seen run from 0.18% to 0.26%.
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It's CPI day
Average 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. held near their highest level of the past year last week, at 6.77%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Applications for purchase mortgages tracked by the trade group were slightly below their earlier level.
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When was the last time Nate Silver or Larry Sabato got a race this wrong?
BofA (left): Large numbers of Americans over 55 are retiring early bc their stock wealth went up so much
Economist @JedKolko (right): Wrong. Age-adjusted, there's no change in older folks' participation rate. Census updates of elderly population in early '26 are creating the illusion of a big shift.
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Link:
The rapid declines we have observed over the past year don't seem to be representative of any local, cyclical weakness in the labor market.
This is one reason why we are less alarmed about the latest jobs report, and are leaning more on the fact that u3 has declined and remains low. Holding the age composition of the CPS fixed has little effect on the unemployment rate trends over the past few years.
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This has been a drag on overall labor force participation since the 65+ labor force participation rate is just under 20%, while the 60-64 rate is just under 60%.
A large part of the reported decline in participation since last year happened because of the discontinuous jump in the 65+ population share in January. Since January, the 65+ population weight has continued to rise as the 60-64 population share shrinks.
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The Census Bureau adjusts the Current Population Survey weights annually every January, and does not readjust past data to account for those weights. This causes abrupt jumps in the CPS demographic weights of the CPS every January.
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The aging of the population is a long-term, secular trend, so how can it cause such a rapid decline in the population trends?
Taking a look under the hood, ~2/3 of the decline can be explained by changes in the population weights.
Most of the remaining decline is due to lower participation rates amongst older workers -- especially for the 65+ cohorts.
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There has been a lot of concern and debate regarding the decline in the labor force participation rate. @PrestonMui breaks it down.
