Skanda Amarnath
@IrvingSwisher
Executive Director - @employamerica @skandaamarnath on other sites. RTs/likes != endorsements. Charitable interpretation advised
5.5K Following 32.6K Followers
Lowering the # of "live" Fed meetings per year means the Fed is either:
1. Liable to fall further behind the curve b/c it will move too slow, or
2. Gonna have to be more open to 50bp+ moves than before
This comes as the Fed intentionally guided hikes to a slower quarterly pace
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Employ America (@employamerica) is out with a statement on the permitting reform bill released yesterday.
An overdue step in the right direction for lawmakers and for US energy policy. We support and urge its passage.
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Even with no AI boom, there's nearly 200GW of coal powered generation in the US, and most of that is nearing the end of its economic life.
So what comes next? Gas will dominate no matter what.
But it would be wise to diversify the portfolio of viable firm power options
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It's @energynicholas' debut for @employamerica:
After the Aging Coal Fleet: Ramping Advanced Firm Power
No CPI Spaces with @conorsen today but I will be on Bloomberg Radio at 9:10am eastern time to recap the August CPI release and its implications for PCE and the Fed
Should be able to check it out here:
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Old enough to remember when DOGE was marketed as a masterstroke fiscal policy shortcut for lowering interest rates.
Total labor income growth is stable despite the job growth improvement, and thus average wage growth is still sluggish, though it tends to lag the labor market.
Currently running at or below most estimates of inflation.
Real wages are flat to negative over the past year
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The report came with hawkish implications relative to the Fed's own labor market assessment.
But I do find it remarkable that observed trend of total labor income growth (+4.1%) looks very similar to what we saw in the 2010s
At odds w/ the new highs in long-term interest rates
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Payrolls data is always messy. That negative jobs # last month that was supposed to stop a Fed hike? Gone via revisions
Gotta account for revisions holistically: focus on how the observed trend shifts w/ each report
+82k jobs/month is solid vs labor supply. Better vs last year
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Obvious political tampering with the Census Bureau on display in this report. Lacks the most basic of standards. No transparency on methods or data
This is the road to Argentina-fying statistical agencies. Bad bad bad
Lutnick has a lot to answer for.
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@mattyglesias What's also funny about this is that Massachusetts is dependent on LNG imports from other countries due to pipeline constraints and the Jones Act.
So maybe Markey was really engaged in a "Massachusetts First" energy policy agenda ;)
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@mattyglesias What's also funny about this is that Massachusetts is dependent on LNG imports from other countries due to pipeline constraints and the Jones Act.
So maybe Markey was really engaged in a "Massachusetts First" energy policy agenda ;)
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@AviTillu1 @employamerica @IrvingSwisher Here's the same exercise (fixing age-group composition at July 2025) for the employment-population ratio:
@WarrenPies The questions are whether/how a median FOMC voter (Jefferson/Paulson) justifies a forecast change—on the basis of either the lagged data or forward-looking geopolitical/supply-chain developments—that now says "tighter policy is required to get back on the disinflation track."
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@WarrenPies On July 9, Williams said he expected to see core PCE at a run rate of 0.2% "or even lower."
The June print was, in fact, even lower. Pre-PPI estimates for July core PCE that I've seen run from 0.18% to 0.26%.
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It's CPI day
Average 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. held near their highest level of the past year last week, at 6.77%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Applications for purchase mortgages tracked by the trade group were slightly below their earlier level.
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When was the last time Nate Silver or Larry Sabato got a race this wrong?
BofA (left): Large numbers of Americans over 55 are retiring early bc their stock wealth went up so much
Economist @JedKolko (right): Wrong. Age-adjusted, there's no change in older folks' participation rate. Census updates of elderly population in early '26 are creating the illusion of a big shift.
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Link:
