Eliant Capital
@eliant_capital
L/S Equities | Macro & Event Driven Trader | Finding Exploits Within the Markets | Never Financial Advice
1.2K Following 201K Followers
Short bonds might be getting a wee bit crowded here...
The administration is telling you they want lower yields and will get them, yet people still want to fight it. Best of luck if you can’t understand the direction of policy.
All this hullabaloo over Bessent's buyback plans, and the source of funds to enact them, is moot...all that matters is the signal...Treasury are attentive to market developments, don't like what they see, and will adopt an activist approach to engineer their preferred outcome...
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Bonds screaming you don’t own enough hard assets
Crypto about to go on a vengeance run
A great opportunity for the debasement trade
And now it looks like we understand why…
The “Bessent Put” was born this week.
The last time gold broke its correlation with real yields was in late '23, & it kicked off a major bull run. It's starting to break that relationship again...
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: There's a very good chance we have seen a peak in the fiscal deficit.
This could prove 100% accurate if he swaps ALL the Federal debt for T-Bills, then uses those T-Bills to back 0% yielding stablecoins, then cuts the rate on those T-Bills to 0.60% (b/c the banks don't deserve 3.5% on stablecoins).
You're gonna want to own more gold & BTC though.
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US Treasury Secretary Bessent: There's a very good chance we have seen a peak in the fiscal deficit.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent on bonds: The buyback could be more than 4 billion - CNBC.
That didn’t take long
“Sir, the 10Y & 30Y have retraced the entirety of yesterday’s move following the announcement.”
“Sir, the 10Y & 30Y have retraced the entirety of yesterday’s move following the announcement.”
Trump: announcing most severe economic action ever taken against Iran
Based on OAI Friar's comments on CNBC today that OAI ARR is +35% QTD, implies ~250% y/y growth in August, an acceleration and 12 month high
Seems like many are starting to become real believers...
@RunPlutus
Semis & AI “bottlenecks” are obviously where a lot of the excitement is right now, but it’s clear that over time, some of the biggest winners from AI will be medicine, whether it be through the impact AI has on drug discovery, diagnostics, treatment, or overall quality of care.
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You don’t own enough hard assets
"Just keep markets tame long enough for us to get this IPO off and maybe we’ll throw you a government stake down the road"
And the mania begins...
Looking back a few years from now, people are going to kick themselves over how painfully obvious the hyperscalers were here
It's been entertaining watching the daily swings in single names & how emotional people become on both the upswings and downswings, with their opinion of the stock seemingly changing based on whichever direction it's moving that day; but it's going to be even more entertaining watching individuals and markets react to weekly Yipit data on Anthropic
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The more the CNY collapses v. gold (USDCNY*gold, below), the LOWER Chinese govt bond yields fall.
At some point, western policymakers will figure out why the same would also hold true for their bonds.
You'll want to own gold before western policymakers finally figure this out.
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