Fed
@lord_fed
Cross-Asset PM, predominantly L/S equities, commodities and FX. Sometimes rates, sometimes memes.
475 Following 55.6K Followers
*TRUMP: I URGE IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL
You better get the cheque book out Donny, why would Iran give you a deal before the mid terms
My homework wrt markets this weekend:
1. Read @Evan_ss6’s latest article
2. Read @lord_fed’s latest substack
3. Watch @WarrenPies latest interview
4. Listen to @VincentDeluard’s guest appearance on @ForwardGuidance
Hold me to it
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People spend so much time working out what the next disaster might be that their books end up badly positioned if anything gets better.
As a wise @conksresearch would say - buckle up
pain trade is up
Fact check : ✅
I think a lot of people are about to discover that being right about the risks and making money from them are two very different things.
I feel like this is a good moment to go private
Rather than joining the herd in long duration during the Fed, I bought AUDUSD. Same
view but a cleaner expression imo.
0.72 target
Dude I literally just explained this to you
"Buy airlines on oil going down" twitter is a thing apparently
Ok sure
Just wait for the anger when the long end rallies after the Fed hike, having spent 2024 selling off through the cutting cycle
I think Kevin gave us the clearing event we needed
Close enough
KEVIN “TOO SOON” WARSH! I ASKED FOR LOWER RATES. HE RAISED THEM. EVEN “TOO LATE” POWELL KNEW WHICH DIRECTION TO GO! WE SHOULD BE AT 1%, OR BETTER!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
I think a lot of people are about to discover that being right about the risks and making money from them are two very different things.
KEVIN “TOO SOON” WARSH! I ASKED FOR LOWER RATES. HE RAISED THEM. EVEN “TOO LATE” POWELL KNEW WHICH DIRECTION TO GO! WE SHOULD BE AT 1%, OR BETTER!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
all caps truth being written on the golden toilet as we speak
If you’re already bored of Kevin Warsh’s voice, I’ve just opened this up for everyone to read
I think a lot of people are about to discover that being right about the risks and making money from them are two very different things.
*TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON TWO MORE FED RATE HIKES BY YEAR-END
all caps truth being written on the golden toilet as we speak
It’s quite an interesting meeting since the Fed doesn’t have to hike. They could just leave rates where they are and let the long end blow out more to do the job for them.
Despite the doomers assuring us that AI would go on and kill software this year, software has performed extremely well ever since putting on this basket back in March.
To the point you have the software vs semis trade having one of its best days on record on Monday.
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The most expensive misread in markets right here is thinking AI kills software. I think it gets absorbed by it which is a completely different trade.
Spent several weeks on this post and built a 15 name basket around the idea.
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Anyway… where was I.
Well we don’t really need a hike, but we are going to get one. As I wrote in the tweet last night, perhaps it will be a one and done kind of thing.
10s are nearly 3sd below their 1yr mean, positioning is extremely light, and everyone suddenly seems convinced yields only go one way.
Theres plenty of reason to start liking the other side
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