Sorta looks like a… nvm
pathetic relief into distribution and trend loss?
looks ass, send it back to 0
$SOXX $SMH
30,000 Ft. High Time Frame View: Semis
Image 1: During the 2020s, we have seen three -40% corrections, taking 10 months to play out (March 2020 ofc was much shorter). This could look similar to the recent two 10 month 40-50% corrections, important to note this time the move up was like 2.5x greater in magnitude— even assuming the same correction puts this thing at 350 by End of Q1 2027 (initial March 2026 impulse).
Image 2: Since this bull began (Q4 2022), the best HTF entries have come under the 50 month moving average (image 3 shows the same for March 2020).
Image 3: Over the past decade, every time soxx reverted back under oversold (monthly) it pretty much straight lined it to the 50 RSI level.
This is obviously very HTF and can’t assess things till late Q1 2027. Obviously not a “call” either, just trying to get a hold of the bigger picture here.
Show more
Over the next five months whenever I tweet that I’m “longing semiconductors for a bounce” please just remind me not to
Thanks in advance
Over the next five months whenever I tweet that I’m “longing semiconductors for a bounce” please just remind me not to
Thanks in advance
$NBIS
Need strength from 175
$SPCX
The rhetoric gets more and more [redacted] as more shares get unlocked
This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy
Actually 6 days will do
Put this on the 10Y monthly chart and come back in 6 months
$ZEC
What do
@Parida ZEC currently reminds me of MU in early July when it lost daily trend for the first time
Market gods can change that in a 15 min candle but for now that’s the comp
$QQQ
Back to regularly scheduled programming…
Yes I held tech exposure for about 20 hours in the past 8 days and managed to take a haircut in my short term trading account
But no need to anchor to the short term view that has already been invalidated
HTF looks very shakey
Show more
$QQQ
Played out to the T…
Even managed to catch the second leg up on QQQ after TP’ing into the initial ATH test— fully TP’d calls last Tuesday (trying rotational IWM calls since Wednesday).
As mentioned above (and in other threads) I am now more defensive oriented after TP’ing in the middle of last week. The bar is getting higher to remain risk on select tech names as I am trying to protect this recent bout of outperformance.
Still think this breadth expansion can continue, but trying not to get too cute as implied correlations continue to crater and I am firmly of the view that this breadth expansion when indices are near ATH’s is ultimately a bearish phenomenon. Cash is also a position…
At a larger time scale, the Trump admin has successfully ran this playbook two times since he came to office at the beginning of 2025… the next 6 weeks will give us clues to whether we are about to see the final stage of the third attempt play out…
I posit whether there is too much hubris here too… doing the same thing and expecting to get the same results… something about things coming in three’s… the ANT IPO may be symbolic that a larger change is afoot.
Show more
$QQQ $SOXL
Bought back some tech risk in this morning.
Avoided the recent bout of carnage, so I can afford to take a stab here.
Opex week, CPI tomorrow, etc.
I admit it was mostly semis (soxl spot overnight, calls this morning)… a tough position to take (as mags is the clear tech leader for the past few months).
Criticize me all you want but part of my rationale was legitimately the Ansem tweet + all the doom and gloom today, including a few prominent AI bull anons on here essentially capitulating…
Worth a shot.
Show more
$QQQ
Played out to the T…
Even managed to catch the second leg up on QQQ after TP’ing into the initial ATH test— fully TP’d calls last Tuesday (trying rotational IWM calls since Wednesday).
As mentioned above (and in other threads) I am now more defensive oriented after TP’ing in the middle of last week. The bar is getting higher to remain risk on select tech names as I am trying to protect this recent bout of outperformance.
Still think this breadth expansion can continue, but trying not to get too cute as implied correlations continue to crater and I am firmly of the view that this breadth expansion when indices are near ATH’s is ultimately a bearish phenomenon. Cash is also a position…
At a larger time scale, the Trump admin has successfully ran this playbook two times since he came to office at the beginning of 2025… the next 6 weeks will give us clues to whether we are about to see the final stage of the third attempt play out…
I posit whether there is too much hubris here too… doing the same thing and expecting to get the same results… something about things coming in three’s… the ANT IPO may be symbolic that a larger change is afoot.
Show more
Ironclad rule of markets:
Sell the first Gavin Baker schizo post, buy the 42nd
$SOXL
The Q3 reaction off the 200d test
Black Bulled
$XLU
Peaceful
So memory chops from here and mags reverts?
@50ptMAE Yeah if this hiking cycle is happening I’d expect a miniature version of 2022… probably draw down into 2H Q1…
ofc I am playing the contrarian longs here but this is like a 3-4 week view max
Show more
