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Mandelbrot
@Wild_Randomness
156 Following    11.1K Followers
My homework wrt markets this weekend: 1. Read @Evan_ss6’s latest article 2. Read @lord_fed’s latest substack 3. Watch @WarrenPies latest interview 4. Listen to @VincentDeluard’s guest appearance on @ForwardGuidance Hold me to it
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A week before earnings? Damage control for first earnings miss in five years?
*NVIDIA CUSTOMERS NOTIFIED ABOUT AI PRICE HIKES ABOVE 15% Well played Jensen
Trump is floating the idea of the US military bombing the bond market if Bessent’s current intervention fails… Let’s go have a look at the bitcoin and gold charts… Oh.
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I think the Bitcoin bump was a dead-cat bounce. It's not hitting a new high any time soon. There are more valuable things for individuals and institutions to own IMO.
No shorts, but maybe have some cash to buy a weekend liq grab
Observing
BREAKING: Jim Cramer just said “Just go buy Bitcoin. Don’t buy the derivatives.”
$HYPE $LIT Saw the Clemente video, I no longer have the same level of conviction on this idea. Prob best to be closer to 50:50 than 25:75. Right now you have one coin holding above *ATHs and it’s not the one that got the SEC headline / Trump shoutout… Can always change ofc
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$HYPE $LIT Personally I own around 3x more HYPE than I do LIT here Feel like this could end up paralleling gold (HYPE) and silver (LIT) Maybe a brutal analog, but these will continue taking turns leading (i.e. if/when these assets break their respective ATHs)
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$SOXL $QQQ Nice little local response over the past 2 hours We’ll see how we close out today, not sure if it’s worthwhile being contrarian with his rates backdrop lol Struggling to see how these lads (Bessent / Warsh) thread the needle here Commodities and crypto far simpler
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$SOXL $QQQ I call this trade: The Japanese Soldier’s Lazarus Reflex $140 Aug 28 SOXL calls $728 Aug 28 QQQ Calls
(fwiw I 100% deserve to be blocked by Ansem. The others are just soft)
$COPX Time to hop back on the infinite money printer that is the $75-$95 range on COPX
Next chapter began weeks ago The events this week only solidified it
Certainly wasn’t positioned for this outcome, but I also don’t why we the TL is mass coping & acting surprised about this Warsh pick. Remind me— have we not all been awe-struck by these commodities (primarily precious metals) over recent weeks? Gold rising $2000 in 5 months, and hitting a fever pitch this week bouncing around $500 intraday is terribly concerning— not a vote of confidence for this monetary system, or the USD in general (which was breaking down this week). Plainly, the combination of these moves from forex and metals forced Bessent’s hand; I don’t think this was Trump’s pick. Though I believe Trump thinks he can control Warsh (at least Warsh signalled that he could), and he looks the part… it’s that simple. So, they roll out the Hawk they can control to stop what really was a runaway train. Bessent gave us hints two days ago, we just weren’t ready to accept that as we were too busy watching gold rise $200 a day; the irony… Of course, there’s a tail risk that the admin is purely floating this as a trial to test the markets response, clear some of the speculative excesses, and stop the momentum on some of these trades. It’s in this admin’s nature…. Regardless, Polymarket will know first…
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$SOXL $QQQ I call this trade: The Japanese Soldier’s Lazarus Reflex $140 Aug 28 SOXL calls $728 Aug 28 QQQ Calls
$HYPE $LIT Personally I own around 3x more HYPE than I do LIT here Feel like this could end up paralleling gold (HYPE) and silver (LIT) Maybe a brutal analog, but these will continue taking turns leading (i.e. if/when these assets break their respective ATHs)
Show more
$COPX Time to hop back on the infinite money printer that is the $75-$95 range on COPX
Certainly wasn’t positioned for this outcome, but I also don’t why we the TL is mass coping & acting surprised about this Warsh pick. Remind me— have we not all been awe-struck by these commodities (primarily precious metals) over recent weeks? Gold rising $2000 in 5 months, and hitting a fever pitch this week bouncing around $500 intraday is terribly concerning— not a vote of confidence for this monetary system, or the USD in general (which was breaking down this week). Plainly, the combination of these moves from forex and metals forced Bessent’s hand; I don’t think this was Trump’s pick. Though I believe Trump thinks he can control Warsh (at least Warsh signalled that he could), and he looks the part… it’s that simple. So, they roll out the Hawk they can control to stop what really was a runaway train. Bessent gave us hints two days ago, we just weren’t ready to accept that as we were too busy watching gold rise $200 a day; the irony… Of course, there’s a tail risk that the admin is purely floating this as a trial to test the markets response, clear some of the speculative excesses, and stop the momentum on some of these trades. It’s in this admin’s nature…. Regardless, Polymarket will know first…
Show more