Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8 + Grok citations
have been working to reconcile and creating new direction for my paid to give better information on these topics.
Behind the meter. Yes a pipeline of 90GW. BUT Cleanview only projects total operating capacity should grow to between 2.8 and 3.2 GW at end of 2026. Mostly spaceX is live. Live in turbines and live on turbines powering chips. After 2026, the range of possible outcomes grows significantly. If all projects with signed tenants reach their construction timelines—a big if in the current environment—then another 10 GW could come online in 2027, bringing the cumulative total to 13 GW.
SpaceX has 1.6 GW installed and is powering 1.5GW of live data center. If SpaceX gets the 5-8GW of added data center and a lot us BTM then SpaceX is fastest and is dominating behind the meter and dominating the fastest new AI data centers.
AI data center share of Amazon and Microsoft needs to be separate from regular cloud. I have new research trying to pin down what is installed, partially installed, live etc... In terms of AI monthly leasing revenue and in terms of working chips and working gigawatts, SpaceX looms larger. There are claims from Anthropic and OpenAI about 2 GW each at end of 2025 and Semianalysis has talked about 5 GW each at end of 2026 BUT it is tough to separate out what is being used by openAI vs microsoft and what is anthropic vs amazon and google. We can invert and try to say that AI revenue for leasing claimed by each company converts to GW with $10-15 B per GW per year based on older long term contracts. Anthropic now is claiming compute is heading down from 70% of all costs towards 50%.
Three claims I see on here 100x a day:
1) SpaceX has more compute than anyone. It should reach ~2 GW by year-end. AWS and Microsoft are each adding ~1 GW per quarter globally, with Google and Meta likely in the same range.
2) BTM can add 5–10+ GW annually. Yet SpaceX, supposedly the fastest BTM scaler, will reach ~2 GW after 1–2 years.
3) Anthropic is reliant on SpaceX. Anthropic disclosed >300 MW at Colossus I. SpaceX later said the agreement also covers Colossus II, but has not disclosed the total MW. Dylan Patel estimates Anthropic scales from <2 GW to >5 GW this year.
These claims do not reconcile!