Genma_Jp
@nymbusjp
15+ Years Leading ADAS Innovation
$TSLA Visionary
Peace Advocate, Anti-Nonsense, Anti-Woke
Pro-Mankind, Anti-Nato, The Duran Member
New account, @Genma82 stolen
746 Following 9.2K Followers
As Lars has confirmed that the 125,000 Cybercabs per year (2,400 per week) communicated in the earnings deck is below the real capacity, we can do a little thought experiment and simulate three scenarios:
• 2,400/week: official earnings-deck guidance (~125k/year)
• 16,000/week: 30-second takt at 80% uptime
• 24,000/week: 20-second takt at 80% uptime (still ~2× Tesla’s long-term 10-second objective)
The EPS you get for next year becomes nuts.
This is not a prediction, but it shows the extraordinary potential of Robotaxi. Those who think that this will be peanuts are gravely mistaken.
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Please do not forget to thank all those who advised you to sell $TSLA to buy $SPCX.
15 years building multi-sensor fusion taught me one thing: fusion is a crutch.
🔹 More sensors ≠ more information
🔹 LiDAR’s and radar's physics: rain, blooming, range-Doppler grid, and target separability
🔹 Why only vision sees meaning
🔹 Why fusion is a crutch
See video 👇
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Waymo was born too early.
The HD map was a brilliant crutch: centimeter-perfect, hand-checked, roof-lidar-dependent… and impossible to scale.
12 minutes on why the map is proof that the intelligence is missing, and why FSD drives anywhere. 🎥👇
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Very interesting. I was wondering what was holding them up and why Ashok said that v15 was necessary for this, considering the fact Robotaxi is already operating in pitch-dark night.
The other interesting fact is that Tesla knows they have a risk of running over pets, despite the fact that we have no public reports of pets being run over. This is the power of having lots of data and compute: you can test, verify, and simulate the long tail to detect and fix issues before they happen.
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Robotaxi operating hours moved from 10pm to 11pm.
The main thing we’re trying to solve is making sure that we don’t run over pets when they’re hard to see at night. Literally trying to avoid grey kittens on grey tarmac in the dark.
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Reminder: the most bullish mainstream Wall Street expectation for the number of Robotaxis by the end of this year is 1,500.
We will be way above that.
On August, 22nd, Austin's unsupervised Robotaxi fleet reached 60 vehicles. 6 weeks later, the fleet has over 200 vehicles.
60 vehicles is the size of the Dallas fleet today. Just 6 weeks behind.
We know where this is going.
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"I think the probability of a good outcome is like 80% likely... only 20% chance of annihilation."
- Elon Musk
So I made a music video that takes you on a tour of both outcomes.
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Don't look at the stock price. Look at the product. You'll know it's in the bag.
Reminder of what's happening:
32 Cybercabs just added!
Total: 578
Cybercab: 158
Model Y: 420
Tesla doesn’t need incentives.
FSD is the reason people are buying Teslas.
That's a very good point.
Isn’t it crazy Germany allows you to drive 275 Km/hour but doesn’t allow FSD?
I hate it when Putin weaponizes energy to blackmail us.
He's right. Look at how it turned out for NVidia! If China can work around NVidia, do you think they won't be able to make planes? Especially when Russia is making planes?
Dumb move. The US is run by brain-dead neocons. This is hurting the US.
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Such a dumb move to weaponize Boeing. This is the US effectively telling the world: "if you buy our products we'll use that to f*ck you"
Made with Opus 5.5.
The doomers said that last song is all part of Claude's evil plan.
They're not wrong.
It turns out Claude really has an EVIL PLAN.
I got my Model 3, my first Tesla. It's an awesome car! My daughter was so happy! And Grok in the car is amazing. It's so superior to any other legacy car. They are cooked.
Well done, @elonmusk @Tesla
Next step: FSD in Europe.🔥🚀
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The true reason why North Korea is allowed to have nuclear weapons is because they have nuclear weapons.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷🇰🇵U.S. President Trump says that North Korea can have nuclear weapons but not Iran because he and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jung-Un like each other.
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Tesla will continue to push to get more countries to approve it until December and will gather more miles to prove FSD's safety.
Then at the last moment, Tesla will give them a candy and offer to limit the speed offset to 30% instead of 50%.
With this little change, the regulators will have got some excuse to justify their useless existence and they will approve FSD.
It's all political bullshit from the parasitic bureaucrats.
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At the same time, the regulatory debate over Tesla FSD is intensifying in Europe. 🇪🇺
The European Transport Safety Council (ETSC) has urged EU member states to reject approval of certain FSD features, including the “Speed Offset” function.
The main concern is that it can allow drivers to set a maximum speed up to 50% above the detected speed limit.
Meanwhile, an EU-wide decision on FSD recognition has now been pushed back to December.
So the current situation in Europe is getting interesting:
“More approvals at the individual country level ↔ Growing regulatory debate at the EU level”
Both are happening at the same time.
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You guys will regret this.
Tesla Retail now only owns 15.8%
Plato’s cave, inverted.
Tokens are the shadows. Language is the wall.
Even the best models train on a lossy residue of the world. Language is not reality; it is a slow social compression of it. Spoken English carries tens of bits per second of new information, well below a 56k modem. Text is denser but still a thin pipe. Almost everything a nervous system registered never entered the corpus.
Give a model the uncompressed stream—electromagnetic waves and force, not tokens—and the first problem is no longer prediction but what to treat as a unit.
Tokens are an accident of human writing. A mind that saw the raw field would invent its own compression: events, invariants, causal structure, geometries we do not yet name.
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