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kokycpcb
@pcbanalysis
Senior PCB Industry analyst in Taiwan. Our team offers unmatched expertise in executing deep-dive, fundamental analysis of the global PCB supply chain.
105 Following    8.8K Followers
NVIDIA’s next-gen architectures are reshaping copper foil demand—and the upstream benefits are tilting heavily toward Shengyi Technology’s raw material base. High-spec Gen 4 copper foil makers are racing to ramp capacity: • Aggressive expansion: Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Defu, Tongguan Copper Foil, and LOTTE Energy Materials • Incumbents holding ground: Furukawa, Circuit Foil Luxembourg, and Co-Tech . The severe supply deficit projected for 1H26 is shrinking faster than expected thanks to this coordinated upstream sprint. Never underestimate the adaptability of the hardware supply chain. By 2027, the landscape will look radically different. 🌐⚡️ #NVIDIA# #CopperFoil# #PCB# #CCL# #SupplyChain# #Hardware# #Shengyi# #Semiconductors#
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Earlier, I noted that unreinforced PTFE (glass-free) is theoretically an engineering nightmare for stable PCB mass production. Looking at the latest architectural roadmap, here is how the split is actually playing out: 1️⃣ With GPU/Switch Silicon: Must stick to traditional fabric-reinforced solutions to meet strict mechanical & assembly requirements. 2️⃣ Pure Signal Transmission (e.g., Backplanes): Driven purely by electrical performance, designs can adopt unreinforced (glass-free) schemes, deviating from conventional PCB rules. End customers are definitively breaking away from legacy design logic. The supply chain has no choice but to adapt and execute. Time to move. 🚀 #PCB# #AI# #Hardware# #SupplyChain# #Semiconductor# #Materials#
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The Low-DK Fabric Roadmap for AI Hardware (Gen 1 to Gen 4): • Gen 1 (Glass): NV Compute Tray • Gen 2 (Glass): NV Switch Tray • Gen 2.5 (Extreme Glass / NEZ-Grade): The physical limit of glass fiber • Gen 3 (1st Gen Quartz / Q-Glass): NV Next-Gen LPU (52-layer) • Gen 4 (2nd Gen Quartz): M10-grade CCL Gen 1–2.5 push traditional glass to its limit. Gen 3–4 leap into pure Quartz for the AI race. ⚡️ #PCB# #CCL# #NVIDIA# #Hardware# #SupplyChain# #QGlass#
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Mizuho on $AVGO: key points: 1) We see AVGO with the most-capable TH6/Jericho SerDes/Switch for all-toall 1000-1M XPU networking at 200G/lane, SerDes/ASIC/Packaging dominating GOOGL TPU "training" roadmap at 2-3x ASP ~$15K/ASIC, 2) we believe MTK could potentially win the TPU inference chip, despite investors stating MTK is getting the training chip with large die on EMIB [ $INTC ] packaging, and 3) we see the most probable trajectory of AVGO $GOOGL TPUs ramp to 18M+ units in 2028E with AVGO getting ~50% share at ~10-12M units being 3x the current volume (~4.5M today). We see AVGO has the best perf. training SerDes with MTK SerDes limited and needing GOOGL/SMTC (NC) contribution, with potential delays. We believe the v9/v10 will see a mix of both MTK/AVGO to optimize cost and performance, and see AVGO well-positioned into 2028E with upside to 35M TPU, regardless of training/inference chip share. We also see GOOGL purchase commitments (10Q, p55) are expanding significantly to $800 B+ for TPUs.
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WoW~E-Glass Fabric price hikes accelerate in Aug.: 7628 up RMB 1.5/m to RMB 10.1/m (+17.4%) 2116 up RMB 1.85/m to RMB 12.7/m (+17.1%) 1080 up RMB 2.0/m to RMB 13.3/m (+17.9%)
As everyone rushes into Rack-level PCB manufacturing, endless screw-ups are forcing end clients to tread carefully. Expect major share shifts right before mass production for both HDI and high-layer boards." ​But here’s the kicker: all this chaos is actually a huge catalyst for upstream materials and consumables. Poor yields mean sky-high scrap rates, driving an already tight supply chain into an even tighter bottleneck.
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Kimi K3 has received far more love than we expected, and our GPUs are feeling it. Over the past 48 hours, demand has pushed close to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the experience of existing subscribers, we're temporarily pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are not affected. We're adding capacity as fast as we can and will reopen new subscription spots in batches. Going forward, we'll also split membership into two more focused plans: Kimi Membership for Kimi Web, App, and Work; and Kimi Code Membership for coding workflows. This will help us match compute more precisely and keep the experience stable. Thank you for your patience and understanding!
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From a tech roadmap perspective, here is how the materials are shifting: ​1️⃣ Compute/Switch/Motherboards: CCL is staying on the current PPO/CH track, starting at M8+ and scaling toward M9/M10 for next-gen nodes. ​2️⃣ Backplanes/Midplanes: To balance manufacturability and performance, we're seeing a hybrid approach. It leverages a glass-free PTFE Core paired with Q-glass/CH resin Prepregs (PP) for mechanical reinforcement. ​Co-existence is the actual winning playbook here. #AIInfrastructure# #PCB# #CCL# #MaterialScience# #PTFE# #QGlass#
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Market capital has a funny blind spot: many assumed PTFE-related designs would phase out glass fabrics entirely. The ground reality? We are seeing more and more next-gen designs migrating back to fabric-based solutions. ​Right now, the winning playbook for high-layer AI architectures is a co-existence scheme: leveraging Q-glass paired with CH resin Prepregs (PP). This isn't a temporary workaround; it is the blueprint for the next wave of hyperscale networking infrastructure. ​ ​#PCB# #AI# #Hardware# #SupplyChain# #Semiconductor#
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The Q-glass vs. PTFE debate is still raging, but the ground truth is clear: ultra-high layer count AI boards are locked in for the M9 + Q-glass setup. 🧵👇 PTFE materials cause severe processing bottlenecks in drilling and lamination. It’s so problematic that even Shengyi Tech had to alter its PP formulations. Looking into 2027, the volume ramp-up of next-gen LPUs (featuring massive 52-layer designs) will trigger a massive surge in Q-glass demand. PTFE will remain strictly confined to low-layer topologies. #PCB# #Semiconductor# #AI# #SupplyChain# #Hardware#
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Starting 2H26, as new GPU and ASIC chips enter the sampling and mass production phases, demand for Low-DK Gen 2 is going through the roof. Even though the current supply chain is expanding as fast as they can, machinery lead times and tough yield issues mean actual output is nowhere near enough. This keeps pricing incredibly resilient, and honestly, it paves the way for another round of price increases.
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Grand Fortune expects that even though Nittobo is bringing new capacity online in 2027, it’ll only ease the bottleneck for Intel, AMD, and Nvidia. The ASIC players like Broadcom, Marvell, MTK, and Annapurna will still be left scrambling for enough material. the T-glass shortage is here to stay, and the supply gap is going to get wider year after year.
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Victory Giant's recent manufacturing hiccups have shaken up the supply pie, leading to a noticeable share gain for Taiwanese heavyweights Unimicron and Zhen Ding. Meanwhile, due to the brutal upstream material crunch, Nanya Plastics has been pulled into the Switch Tray supply chain as a newly validated supplier to secure raw material availability.
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Micron $MU plans to invest up to $3B in the U.S. semiconductor supply chain, including $500M to help GlobalWafers expand its 300mm raw silicon wafer plant in Sherman, Texas. The companies also plan a 10-year supply deal for Micron.
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To be blunt, some analysts jumped the gun by baking experimental tech into their models way too fast. The reality check is that orthogonal backplanes are hitting a brick wall—neither M9 nor PTFE can pass the validation tests right now. ​Looking at the actual ground truth, M9-grade specs are steadily ramping up in GPU and ASIC servers. It makes zero sense to lose sight of the entire forest just for Kyber, a highly experimental project that's highly unlikely to cross the finish line anytime soon."
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Sumitomo just dropped its shutdown notice for tungsten rods, cutting production starting July 1st due to the total halt of tungsten material flowing into Japan. ​This is going to hit PCB cutting and routing tools, but it won't really matter for PCB micro drills.
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