Rose Celine Investments 🌹
@realroseceline
Equity investor sharing wisdom. I am not your advisor.🌹
5.1K Following 33.8K Followers
This is why I purposely train myself not to stare at my portfolio every day. I want my emotions connected to changes in the business rather than changes in the quotation. I want to follow revenue, margins, customers, competition, capital allocation and management.
Those are the things that ultimately create value. Ironically, many investors spend most of their time watching the one thing they cannot control while spending very little time studying the things that actually determine long term value. Then they wonder why investing becomes so emotional.
Constantly checking prices also changes your time horizon. You may buy a company because of what you think it can become over ten years, then six months later you are worrying about what the stock will do after next quarter’s earnings. Without realizing it, you went from thinking like an owner to thinking like a trader.
A 10% decline feels enormous when you stare at it all day. It feels much less important when the real question is whether the company can become five times larger over the next decade. Your time horizon changes the meaning of almost everything.
Watching prices constantly also creates a temptation to manufacture decisions. The stock is up so maybe I should sell, the stock is down so maybe something is wrong, an analyst downgraded it so maybe I missed something. Activity starts feeling like intelligence.
Usually the highest level investing decision available to you is doing absolutely nothing. You found a wonderful business, the thesis remains intact and the company continues compounding. There may simply be nothing for you to do.
Some of the greatest investments of my life did not go straight up. There were ugly drawdowns, bad quarters, terrifying headlines and long periods when the market disagreed with me. The money was not made by predicting every short term move.
The money was made by being right about the business and staying around long enough for that reality to matter. That sounds simple, but psychologically it is incredibly difficult. Markets constantly tempt you to interrupt compounding.
I want to know immediately when the business changes. I want to know when competition changes, management changes, unit economics deteriorate or the opportunity ahead becomes materially smaller. Those things deserve my attention.
If the stock falls 7% because someone somewhere changed their opinion, I do not care at all. If an analyst downgrades it, I want to know whether they discovered something important rather than what their new price target is. If an insider sells stock, I want to understand the context before assigning meaning to it.
Price obviously matters. It matters enormously when you buy, when you sell and when valuation becomes disconnected from reality. But price should inform your decisions rather than control your emotions.
The goal is not to ignore information. The goal is to become extraordinarily good at separating information from noise. I believe that ability becomes more valuable the longer your investing horizon becomes.
Stocks move constantly, opinions change constantly and analysts change targets constantly. Businesses generally change much more slowly. If you want to become a better long term investor, learn which one deserves most of your attention.
2/2🌹
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Hilarious 😂
Bessent buying back $6B of the $40 trillion U.S. debt visualized
There is an important subtlety here 19x $NVDA is not necessarily cheaper than 26x $GOOGL simply because 19 < 26.
The market is saying it has more confidence in $GOOG normalized earnings 10 years from now than in $NVDA maintaining today’s margins, growth, economics a decade from now.
Of course, nobody knows what either business will look like that far out, including the people running them. So don’t kill the messenger... 🌹
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Big Tech PE ratios:
Apple $AAPL: 37x
Amazon $AMZN: 27x
Alphabet $GOOGL: 26x
Microsoft $MSFT: 25x
Meta $META: 22x
Broadcom $AVGO: 21x
Nvidia $NVDA: 19x
Ever since @wealthmatica told me about $VOYG, I’ve been watching it and slowly learning more about the business.
The stock is getting killed today after announcing $350m of convertible notes. But a business like $VOYG is fundamentally capital intensive, and if it executes, this won’t be the last time it raises capital.
Dilution obviously matters (a lot), but it also shouldn’t be a surprise in this case. A nearly 20% haircut for financing a business model that was always going to require substantial capital seems excessive to me. 🌹
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That’s quite the statistic 💪
One of the craziest stats in financial history:
Berkshire could fall 99% and still match the growth of $1 of the S&P 500 since 1965.
H/t @MebFaber
One of the best posts I’ve read in X 👏
🚨 GANARLE AL S&P 500 DE FORMA CONSISTENTE ES MUCHO MÁS DIFÍCIL DE LO QUE PARECE.
A 20 años, apenas una fracción mínima de los fondos activos logra superarlo. (Por eso no le creas a Nicolas Ruso que te dice que hace 40% anual y que es facil..)
Y miren algunos de los nombres que aparecen entre los grandes outliers históricos:
Warren Buffett · George Soros · Stanley Druckenmiller · Peter Lynch · Charlie Munger · David Tepper · Joel Greenblatt.
Gente extraordinariamente preparada que dedicó prácticamente su vida a invertir.
¿Es imposible ganarle al mercado? Para nada.
Pero mantener retornos extraordinarios durante muchos años es otra historia.
Por acá venimos alrededor de 25% anual desde 2019, pero también sabemos que hubo una cuota de suerte y contexto, especialmente con Argentina, que nos dio una mano ENORME.
No espero que eso sea sostenible para siempre.
Si con el tiempo esa rentabilidad se normaliza más cerca de 15–18% anual, seguiría siendo un resultado espectacular (mi cartera es mas riesgosa que el SPX..)
Y por eso hay que tener MUCHO cuidado con el que te vende 30–40% anual como si fuera fácil, seguro y repetible.
Si hasta Buffett, Soros o Druckenmiller tuvieron años horribles, imaginate el nivel de humo que hay que vender para prometerte eso sin riesgo.
No hace falta hacer 40% anual para construir mucho patrimonio.
Hace falta sobrevivir, ser consistente y no comerse una estafa por perseguir retornos imposibles.
Un ejemplo simple del poder del interés compuesto:
Si desde los 18 hasta los 25 años invertís US$100 por mes y después, desde los 25 hasta los 40, US$200 por mes:
Al 10% anual: tendrías ~US$129.000
Al 15% anual: tendrías ~US$237.000
Y eso habiendo aportado de tu bolsillo apenas US$44.400.
Por eso no hace falta perseguir retornos delirantes.
Tiempo + constancia + interés compuesto hacen muchísimo más de lo que parece.
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Every day this guy says “a ton happened in the market today.” Truth is perhaps he’s right that a lot has happened, but on the vast majority of days, almost nothing happened that actually matters. And a vast majority of it is a distraction, because few days from now, no one will remember or care about this stuff.
He also says “Wall Street is the greatest show on earth”. I don’t think so. Investing isn’t a show, and it was never meant to entertain you.
In fact, good investing is supposed to be boring. Very, very boring. You do the work, make the decision, and then the best thing you can do is leave it alone, preferably for many years or even decades.
Of course, almost everyone already knows this. The problem is very few people have the discipline or mental wherewithal to actually live it because they are constantly trying to extract entertainment from a discipline that is supposed to be boring.
If you’re looking to investing for entertainment and jubilation, my advice is simple. First, get a life outside the market. Second, seriously reconsider what your investment goals actually are.
Then again, what do I know? I’m named after a flower. 🌹
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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. President Trump said Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon” remains the administration’s only objective, adding that he has a “big decision” to make regarding the conflict. He also reiterated that he believes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal after the U.S. election, while saying he would “give no credence to the election” when making decisions on Iran. The remarks come as the administration continues weighing both military and diplomatic options amid ongoing talks with Tehran.
2. Meta $META continues expanding Muse’s ecosystem through new partnerships aimed at turning the AI assistant into a broader consumer platform. The latest integrations include Instacart for grocery shopping and delivery, PayPal for shopping and checkout, Expedia for trip planning and hotel bookings, and Shopify for shopping across millions of merchants. The partnerships significantly expand Muse’s ability to complete real-world tasks directly within conversations, moving beyond simple chat into a full AI commerce and productivity assistant.
3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.5M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 964K contracts, $META with 936K contracts, $INTC with 816K contracts, $AMZN with 682K contracts, $GOOGL with 662K contracts, $SPCX with 644K contracts, and $AMD with 622K contracts.
4. SoFi $SOFI has become the first U.S. national bank to go live with stablecoin settlement across Mastercard’s $MA network. The company is moving its full debit and credit card program—representing more than $25B in annualized payment volume—to blockchain-based settlement using SoFiUSD, a stablecoin redeemable 1:1 for U.S. dollars. Merchants will not need to hold stablecoins or build new infrastructure, with funds able to settle directly into a SoFi Bank account and be withdrawn as cash. SoFi also said it is in discussions with major U.S. retailers and technology platforms, while it and Mastercard are exploring cross-border payments and remittances as the next phase of the partnership.
5. SanDisk $SNDK jumped 7% after Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, calling it “not your father’s SanDisk.” The firm argues AI is transforming NAND from a commodity storage product into a system-critical component of AI infrastructure, creating a significantly stronger long-term growth story. Rosenblatt also highlighted that SanDisk recently joined the S&P 100, a milestone that could increase institutional ownership and index-related demand for the stock.
6. Michael Burry said he is now at full size across several positions, calling current market prices “rather attractive.” He added to short positions in Micron $MU, Nebius $NBIS, the Semiconductor ETF $SOXX, and Palantir $PLTR, while increasing long positions in QXO $QXO, Build-A-Bear Workshop $BBW, Sprouts Farmers Market $SFM, Birkenstock $BIRK, and MercadoLibre $MELI. Burry wrote, “I find the prices offered by the market rather attractive. All these positions are full positions for me now.”
7. AppLovin $APP was reiterated Buy by Citi with a $600 price target after new data pointed to accelerating e-commerce adoption. Citi said the platform had 13,105 global e-commerce clients as of September 18, up 5.1% week over week, the fastest growth rate in 5 months. International merchant growth accelerated 11.5% week over week, outpacing the U.S., while quarter-to-date weekly growth averaged 2.0%, implying roughly 11,600 e-commerce stores on the platform by Q3 2026.
8. Apple $AAPL unveiled a new Mac mini and Mac Studio, with a major focus on on-device AI performance. The new Mac mini features the M6 chip and delivers up to 4x faster AI performance, starting at $899. The new Mac Studio is powered by the M5 Max or M5 Ultra, with the top configuration offering up to 512GB of unified memory, 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth, an 80-core GPU, and the ability to run large language models entirely on-device. Apple is also introducing Thunderbolt 5 with RDMA, enabling multiple Mac Studios to be linked together for up to 3x faster distributed AI inference. The Mac Studio starts at $2,499, while the M5 Ultra model starts at $5,499.
9. IonQ $IONQ said it has demonstrated what it calls the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a standard off-the-shelf CPU. The system was tested on benchmark circuits simulating up to 408 logical qubits and more than 31.5M quantum operations, while adding as little as 0.02% processing overhead. The decoder runs continuously in the background, enabling quantum error correction without interrupting quantum execution. IonQ said the milestone supports its Walking Cat architecture and its roadmap toward quantum systems capable of controlling thousands of qubits.
10. China imported 1,141 tonnes of gold during the first 8 months of 2026, the largest amount ever recorded for that period and already more than the country's total gold imports for all of 2025. At the current pace, annual imports are on track to exceed 1,700 tonnes for the first time. Chinese gold ETFs also added 44 tonnes over the first eight months of the year, up 18% year over year. The surge has been driven by strong investment demand, economic uncertainty, and a stronger yuan, which has made overseas gold purchases more attractive.
11. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $999M in inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake since October 2025 and the 9th-largest daily inflow since U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The move followed another strong session on Friday, when the funds brought in $433M. Demand was led by $IBIT, which attracted $381M, its third-largest daily inflow since launch, bringing its total over the last 3 trading days to $665M. So far in September, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.3B in inflows after pulling in $3.5B during August, highlighting continued institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure.
12. President Trump disclosed 1,156 securities transactions made on his behalf in July, totaling roughly $79M–$270M, including at least $43.6M in purchases and $35.6M in sales. The largest disclosed transactions were $5M–$25M sales of $MSFT Microsoft and $AMZN Amazon on July 20, followed three days later by smaller purchases in both companies. Other notable moves included selling $1M–$5M of Oracle while buying stocks such as $NVDA Nvidia, $INTU Intuit, $MRVL Marvell, $CRM Salesforce, and $CHD Church & Dwight, alongside significant rotation through ETFs, Treasuries, municipal bonds, and international bond funds. The White House said the portfolio is independently managed by third-party financial institutions and that neither President Trump nor his family directs the trades. The July filing follows 1,051 disclosed transactions in June, while Trump's 2025 annual financial disclosure reported more than 21,000 trades across 8 accounts.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
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I don’t mean to keep sharing reviews of my book, but I put an enormous amount of effort into writing it and these messages from early readers genuinely mean a lot to me. I spent years collecting the lessons and obsessing over how to explain them in a way that would actually stay with people and make them better investors.
I never wanted to write another investing book filled with stock tips, formulas or recycled ideas. I wanted to write the book I wish someone had handed me when I started, a book about how an investor’s mind changes after making mistakes, studying businesses and learning what actually matters.
A lot of what is in these pages I had to learn the expensive way. How to recognize a truly exceptional business, separate a great company from a great investment, think about valuation, risk, management, capital allocation, patience and conviction.
I also wanted to go much deeper than investing. A huge part of becoming a better investor is becoming a better thinker, learning how to control your emotions, question your own assumptions and sit still when everyone around you is losing their mind.
I feel comfortable making one promise. Whether you are a complete beginner or you have been investing for many years, I think you are going to learn a tremendous amount from this book and almost certainly come away a better investor and thinker.
That is why these early reviews mean so much to me. When readers tell me they have never seen an investing book structured or written quite like this, it makes all of the work feel worth it because “different” and “never done before” was exactly what I was trying to create.
I am hoping the finished book will be out around Christmas. But if you subscribe to me here on X, you do not have to wait because I am sharing finished chapters with my subscribers. I cannot wait for everyone else to finally see what I have been working on so very diligently. 🌹
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Some of your biggest mistakes will be stocks you made money on
One of the most dangerous things that can happen to an investor is getting rewarded for a bad decision. A loss forces you to think. A lucky win can convince you that you never needed to.
You buy something you barely understand because it is going up. The valuation makes no sense, the business is mediocre and your thesis is mostly narrative. Then the stock doubles and suddenly the market has taught you that bad behavior works.
That is how investors get into trouble. Not always through one gigantic mistake, but by being rewarded for lowering their standards. The market can reinforce bad habits for a long time before punishing them.
This is why making money and being right are not the same thing. The market can give you a great result even when your analysis was wrong. That matters far more than most investors realize.
Imagine buying a company because you believe earnings will double in 3 years. Earnings barely move, but the valuation goes from 15 times to 30 times and the stock doubles anyway. You made money, but your thesis failed.
Maybe you bought a highly leveraged business because you expected debt to fall quickly. Debt barely moves, interest rates decline and the market stops caring. Again, you made money, but not for the reason you expected.
Your brokerage account records a win. Your investing journal should record something different. That is difficult for most investors to admit.
This is why every investor should keep two scorecards. The first is obvious, what return did I make? The second is more important, how much of my original thesis actually came true?
Did revenue develop the way I expected? Did margins improve for the reasons I expected? Did free cash flow grow, did the moat strengthen and did management allocate capital well?
If most of those answers are no, I do not care how green the position was. I got paid, but I did not necessarily invest well. Those are two different things.
The reverse is also true. You can buy a great business at a sensible valuation, have the thesis play out and still watch the stock fall 30% because the multiple compresses. That can feel like failure even when your process was excellent.
This matters because investing is a repeated game. You are not trying to be right once. You are trying to build a process that survives decisions over decades.
A bad process that makes money is dangerous because it encourages repetition. Every time it works, confidence increases. Eventually you take bigger risks with worse ideas because the market trained you to believe your process was better than it was.
This is why bull markets can make investors worse. Weak businesses look good, bad valuations feel justified and aggressive decisions seem intelligent. The market rewards behavior that would look foolish in a harder environment.
You stop asking whether your reasoning was correct. You start asking whether the stock went up. That is where investing can turn into something else entirely.
Price can validate your ego long before it validates your thesis. Sometimes the most dangerous investor is not the one who lost money. It is the one who made a lot of money for reasons they do not fully understand
So after a winner, I ask myself something uncomfortable. If the stock had fallen 30% instead of rising 50%, would I still believe my analysis was good? Could I still defend the thesis without pointing to the stock price?
If the answer is no, maybe the stock did not prove I was right. Maybe the price simply prevented me from discovering I was wrong. That is an important difference
Some of your biggest investing mistakes will never appear as losses. They will appear as profits that taught you the wrong lesson. Those can become the most expensive profits you ever make
If you enjoy my writing, consider subscribing for deeper research, private ideas, Q&As and more direct access to me. My investing book is also coming around Christmas🌹
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Welcome to America @BrettKPG, long overdue.
I have been following your stock for years! $KPG 🌹
@BrettKPG KPG's Bold Nasdaq Gamble: Why Kelly Partners Is Walking Away From the ASX
$KPG.ax
Played poker today and got all in preflop with $KK against $AQs in a 5 bet pot for $3k each.
My opponent hit an ace on the turn and stacked me.
Annoying… 🌹
Is $META Muse really that big of a deal?
It may become an important product of an irrelevant commodity.
The jubilation feels a little premature to me.🌹
Don’t believe them.
$AMZN wants those high margin advertising dollars.
You can’t show an ad to a robot. 🌹
Amazon cuts off Muse.
While I am bullish Meta and Muse, I think many people are overlooking the digital knife fight that’s about to occur
Nobody wants to get commoditized or layered here. Let the games begin
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All I want for Xmas is Bolsonaro! 🤞
🚨🇧🇷 OJO CON BRASIL.
Flávio Bolsonaro acaba de tocar un máximo histórico: 58% de probabilidades de ganar la presidencia en Polymarket.
Faltan apenas 2 semanas para la primera vuelta. $EWZ.
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This is one of those charts that looks boring until you realize it explains the peculiar quality of $MELI🌹
Easy question. Difficult answer. 👇
For every $1 $NBIS invests, how much free cash flow does that dollar generate before the hardware becomes obsolete and has to be replaced? 🌹
Rothschild Redburn initiated Nebius at Sell PT $84
The Sell is about unsustainable unit economics and a demanding valuation. Valuation is a DCF at 20% cost of equity and 6% cost of debt, with extra value for the inferencing business and the ClickHouse stake. Upside if newer GPUs lift revenue per GW, the Token Factory inference business scales fast, or capacity comes online ahead of plan. Downside if key customers insource or a falling share price raises leverage and funding costs.
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The Investor’s Curse
The strange thing about investing is that the closer you get to winning, the easier it becomes to forget what winning was supposed to mean. In the beginning, you invest to become free. If you are successful enough, you can eventually spend your entire life worrying about the thing that was supposed to set you free.
This is the investor’s curse: the same wealth that increases your ability to take risk can destroy your ability to tolerate it. Someone with $10m can afford to lose $1m far more easily than someone with $100k can afford to lose $10k, yet the first loss may feel infinitely more painful. Risk is experienced in dollars even when it should be understood in consequences.
Success can even make your greatest investment feel like your greatest danger. The company that created your wealth becomes too large and too important to hold comfortably. Nothing about the business changed, but its success transformed it from an opportunity you hoped would work into an asset you are terrified to lose.
So you diversify, but diversification introduces a risk rarely found in textbooks. You sell the few businesses you understand deeply and replace them with many you understand less, exchanging visible concentration for invisible ignorance. The portfolio may look safer while the quality of your judgment quietly declines.
Then comes the most seductive trap which is believing every dollar must remain productive forever. The first $1m might buy freedom and the next few might buy security, but eventually another $1m becomes little more than a larger number on a screen. Yet many investors risk the freedom they already have to pursue money they may never meaningfully experience.
Perhaps wealth should eventually change the question. Early on, the question is how much you can make, but later it should become how little of your life must remain controlled by money. If your portfolio can fall 50% without changing how your family lives or what you are free to do, the decline may be financially enormous while being practically irrelevant.
The final stage of investing is not learning how to take more risk or eliminate it completely. It is learning which portion of your wealth no longer needs to participate in the contest. The greatest investors know how to compound capital, but the wisest eventually learn when capital has compounded enough.
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