Wow. It was bound to happen one day, but investor interest in OpenAI looks less robust than it did at the beginning of the year.
OpenAI reportedly has "only $11B" committed toward what was supposed to be a $30B round, per WSJ. FT now says the target is being cut to $20B, with the valuation lowered from $1.4T to $1.25T
(I do want to put the "only 11 billion" in quotes, though, because it's just gotten so ridiculous, the size of these private fundraisings.)
A UAE consortium including MGX is reportedly the biggest participant, and now they’re pitching family offices and wealthy individuals. I guess the institutional checks aren’t adding up to what they wanted.
It probably doesn’t help that OpenAI reported $6.7B in Q2 revenue versus Anthropic’s $11.6B, with Anthropic’s IPO expected next month. The revenue accounting differs, so it’s not a clean comparison, but investors will be making it anyway.
Don’t cry for OpenAI, though: $1.25T is still about 47% above the $852B valuation it raised at in March.
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BREAKING: OpenAI has slashed its funding target by -$10 billion and its valuation by -$150 billion amid this week's technology stock selloff, per FT.
OpenAI is now seeking to raise $20 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, down from $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation.
The company set a deadline of today for investors to commit to the funding round.
That "first close" is now expected to bring in less than $20 billion, after some of its investors lowered their allocations to the round.
This comes just weeks before the expected Anthropic IPO.
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Read this and be inspired today
Thank you, Sir Patrick Stewart. All good things...
It's pretty interesting, and I wonder if it's because I have such a heavy tech and Silicon Valley bias, but 90% of the folks I talk to seriously about alternative education and homeschooling are dads. Homeschooling makes a lot of the moms I talk to very nervous.
The most common profile is someone who has had a successful tech career. A few have had a successful tech company exit.
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I believe the most important role in society by far is the homeschooling mom. It is a privilege to be useful to them.
And yes, we are rapidly expanding what Synthesis teaches, and will go through 8th grade.
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The only collectible figurine I have ever owned is one of Jean-Luc Picard
This was beautiful. Need to make time this holiday season to rewatch the series
Another beautiful to Sir Patrick Steward tribute that I ran across on Reddit
If the creator of this would let me know, I am happy to flag it
Collection of scenes from Star Trek: The Next Generation
I'm not crying, you're crying!
Paying tribute to a great actor and a fine human being
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Cisco is not the only company trying to refactor their whole codebase with AI for sure
I think that this makes a lot of sense, by the way. And we are at just the beginning of seeing the full impact of AI on software
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This is INSANE. Cisco’s president Jeetu Patel has given a 27-year-old engineer unlimited AI tokens to try to rewrite 98% of the company’s legacy code within 24 months, Fortune reports.
Padmanabhan Krishnamurthy thinks he can do it with a two-person team. He has just four weeks to prove the approach.
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I'm someone who now probably voice dictates 99% of the time, and I think I would absolutely appreciate a product like this.
That being said, this is really expensive, and it's not the most attractive thing to wear. But I like this idea a lot, and I do believe we are already in the era of ubiquitous computing. There's just no reason ever to be disconnected from your AI, honestly.
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We’ve raised $1.3M from YC & Afore Capital so you never have to type or speak again.
Typing is slow. Talking into your computer is awkward. Subvocal fixes both
Our glasses give you the speed of speech without you making a sound or touching a keyboard.
It tracks your internal speech muscles with non-contact sensing and decodes silent, almost invisible mouthing into text at more than 200 words/min.
Pre-orders are now live at:
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IDC says that Alibaba Cloud took 46.6% of China's LLM model-as-a-service revenue in the first half of 2026, with Zhipu at 10.6% and ByteDance's Volcano Engine at 10.2%.
Also worth noting the size of the whole pie. IDC puts China's total MaaS market, across all modalities, at ¥10.63B for the half, up 889% year on year, roughly $1.5B. For comparison, Bloomberg's reporting implies Anthropic alone paid SpaceX more than three times that for compute in a single quarter ... yeah.
Anyway, the growth is real, but Chinese model API revenue is still minuscule next to US spend remains true
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$BABA : IDC report: Alibaba Cloud ranks first with a 46.6% share of China's large language model MaaS market
There are so many bot replies to my posts these days, but some of the replies are actually kind of decent and sharp-witted. It makes me wonder if it's a non-native speaker pushing their thoughts through an AI or something.
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A (Chinese) Hot Take on AI benchmarks and how by being effectively US "owned," (developed and maintained by US-based institutions) they're kind of a strategic advantage:
"... The AA leaderboard is America’s Star Wars program, a tool designed to disrupt the training of Chinese open-source AI models.
American companies have an ingrained habit of setting standards, using the banner of a greater cause to establish standards organizations and impose industry entry requirements. If you’re a follower, you’re forced to expend enormous effort and exhaust your resources reshaping yourself to conform to their standards, just to earn their recognition.
In practice, this effectively eliminates the possibility of open-source models catching up."
I’m not sure it makes sense to argue that this necessarily handicaps open-source models. Open source can absolutely become the standard itself. It just hasn’t in this particular case. The more interesting question obviously is not just who gets to define the benchmarks but whether optimizing for them is actually the best use of Chinese labs’ limited resources
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The top comments on this post are super depressing. Not only are there a ton of folks defending this method of "teaching math," they literally say that this is how they were taught.
If you look up this TouchMath method, it's pretty much only in the US. Guess why? Because it's a copyrighted method. A teacher came up with it, commercialized it, and aggressively markets this to thousands of districts.
Guess what other countries use? Oh, they also use physical manipulatives, but it's things like abacuses and base 10 blocks, not ridiculous dot counting.
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I’m now convinced our kids are being intentionally setup to fail by our education system
American parent has her child show the new way they are being taught to do math
This is the most insane thing you’ll ever see. You just need to see this for yourself…. Apparently this is called TouchMath and instead of doing math, you just count dots on letters
No Math is being done here
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China’s STAR 50 is down about 40% from its July peak, wiping out roughly $480B, according to Reuters. Unitree has lost about half its value since its August debut, while MetaX and Moore Threads have seen similar declines since July.
Back in August, I said Unitree’s IPO looked overhyped, and that continued volatility could delay AGIBOT’s listing. Now Lotus’s Hong Hao is telling Reuters that the selloff could derail IPO plans for quite a few companies. I’ve been bearish on the IPO pipeline for Chinese AI and robotics companies for a while, and I think this correction will significantly reduce the number of listings in the near term. The government wants to support these industries, but that doesn’t mean it wants to encourage speculation in their stocks.
Even after the correction, the STAR 50 is still trading at around 100x trailing earnings, compared with roughly 30x for the Nasdaq 100. So I’m not convinced we’ve seen the bottom yet.
Of course, a stock market correction isn’t the same thing as a collapse in the underlying AI industry. But I do think this will have real consequences for how Chinese AI and robotics companies raise capital.
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China may be the FIRST country to burst the AI bubble.
Its stock market, the world’s 2nd-largest, is now OFFICIALLY in a bear market.
Its blue-chip CSI 300 has now fallen -20% from its peak.
Mainland stocks have lost $2.4T since May.
What caused? AI.
Over the past 2 years, investors piled into Chinese AI stocks until they made up 42% of the entire market.
That frenzy sent new listings flying.
GPU makers Moore Threads and MetaX jumped 400% and 700% on their debuts, and robot maker Unitree’s IPO was 8,000x oversubscribed.
By the peak, the STAR 50, China’s AI index, was trading near 250x earnings.
But the profits never caught up to the prices, and investors started selling.
By late October, the index had fallen 40%, erasing $480B.
AI makers MiniMax and Zhipu down over -85%.
Unitree, Moore Threads, and MetaX all cut in half.
AI was too big to fall alone. It took the whole market with it.
Moreso, Morgan Stanley sees another 10–15% drop before a bottom.
So far, the selling CONTINUES.
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Apparently AGIBOT now wants robot output measured in "Worken," which is basically active robots times autonomous hours times an efficiency ratio against a human doing the same task. Not units shipped.
I actually think this is a pretty smart move. In August I said these would be in every shopping center within six months, but I also said I didn't think they had much purpose yet, and a dancing robot at the airport would probably score close to zero on this.
My guess is they know investors are about to start asking about utilization rather than shipments, especially with China's AI and robotics stocks selling off. Curious if anyone else adopts it
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AGIBOT Innovation Day 2026: Embodied AI, From Innovation to Real Work. 🤖
What does it take to turn embodied AI into real-world productivity?
At AGIBOT Innovation Day 2026, we introduced Worken, a proposed framework for measuring the productive work robots perform in real-world environments — looking beyond deployment numbers to how autonomously and effectively they complete tasks.
We also showcased advances across embodied AI:
🤖 AHA3 — our third-generation humanoid hardware architecture and first commercial “Three Intelligences in One” hardware platform
🏃 AGILE — advances in motion intelligence, including self-evolving agent capabilities
🧠 GO-3 Preview — our next-generation embodied AI foundation model
💬 WITA-Omni 1.0 — a multimodal foundation model for human-robot interaction
🏭 G2 Max — an industrial robot designed for demanding material-handling tasks in manufacturing and logistics
🌐 Link-U OS 1.0 — our embodied AI operating system, officially released at the event
From hardware and models to industrial applications and commercial services, we continue to explore how embodied AI can translate into productive work.
The next step isn't just smarter robots. It's more productive work.
#
AGIBOT# #
Worken# #
AGIBOTInnovationDay# #
EmbodiedAI#
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Apparently Sam Altman is saying local AI is a bad use of the world's DRAM, since the memory in your computer only gets used about 5% of the time.
On utilization alone, I don't think he's wrong, although plenty of things we "own" we don't use 95% of the time, eg cars. But OpenAI also signed letters of intent with Samsung and SK Hynix last year for up to 900,000 DRAM wafers a month, so it's not exactly a neutral take.
The bigger issue for OpenAI is that open models keep getting good enough to run at home, and every query that stays on a laptop never touches their very very expensive data centers with their uncancellable obligations, so they are understandably very worried about that and eager to negate that behavior from all fronts
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WAIT… I can’t believe Sam Altman really said this out loud about local AI: “A lot of people want local inference. And they assume that the problem is solved now because we are going to have open source models. And so we're not going to need all the stuff in the data center.
But from a global allocation perspective, actually, it's quite terrible to have everybody have a bunch of the world's limited supply of DRAM sitting in their own computer. And, being used 5% of the time.”
this is such a bizarre thing to say in the open. I don’t get why people buying hardware for their own use is framed as a competition with data centers spending billions to buy hardware at scale.
if anyone should be complaining about how the world’s memory is allocated, it must be the average consumers facing the skyrocketing hardware prices.
it just doesn’t make any sense.
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Pretty interesting first release from DeepMind's AGI economics group. Their argument is that one agent getting smarter on its own barely changes the economy. What could actually change how big firms get is agents coordinating with each other, and almost no benchmark measures that.
I think that matches what I saw selling enterprise AI in 2023 and 2024, and it's also why I wrote about multiplayer AI earlier this week. But apps like
@kylon_ai are making it super easy to have "supercooperative agents," so we may see the real transformative effects of AI soon
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I joined
@GoogleDeepMind to develop a research program on the economics of AGI. Today, together with Andrew Koh (
@andrewjkoh) and Shane Legg (
@ShaneLegg), we are incredibly excited to release The Economics of Intelligence, the first in a series of projects from our group on how AGI will change the economy.
How do capability improvements transform the economy, and when? In this project, we define thresholds of economic capabilities, e.g., minimal AGI, based on how they transform the economy. We then track how the economy–market structure, employment, and wages–changes during the transition across capability regimes.
We have seen exponential increases in what AI agents can do but the broader economy seems almost remarkably unchanged. Part of the reason is that the solo AI agent is the wrong economic object; economic transformation is an equilibrium outcome where organizations compete. Looking at how intelligence functions within organizations, transformation will depend on when two key capability thresholds are crossed: competence (gains on individual skills, e.g., coding, math) and coordination (gains on ability of agents to cooperate and work together).
We show that what economic transformation looks like depends on whether AI becomes supercompetent, supercooperative, or both—the regime of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Tracking this transition shows why the real visible transformation may come from improvements in coordination—a capability most benchmarks don’t yet track. Past a certain threshold, AI capabilities can break the Coasian ceiling on firm size and lead to an economy that looks drastically different than the one we see today.
Two main takeaways:
1. To understand the path of transformation, we should be tracking agentic coordination more closely.
2. The impact of AI will likely show up in wages before market structure or employment.
We are really excited about this paper. Excited to hear people’s thoughts.
Link:
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Dumbing down of the SAT is basically evidence of the shrinkflation in the education that our kids are receiving in this country.
Some colleges are obviously waking up to the fact that the SAT is still much more useful than just GPAs as a predictor of college readiness, but I think very few parents realize just how far it's been dumbed down.
It's actually remarkable to me that even in this poor state, the current SAT still has value in college admissions. That means the other factors really are completely useless.
And if we don't fix it, then in order for people to graduate, and in order for the business model to work, college itself is just going to get dumber and dumber. And few of us parenta are going to be any the wiser, because they're just going to put in worse and worse standards without changing the name, so we think our kids are getting something that they're not.
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I am speechless. Thomas Aquinas College just dropped a study on the rigor of the new SAT.
It compares the 1980/87 test with 2026. The findings should terrify every parent and teacher...
Vocabulary has collapsed.
Old SAT: 70.6% of questions tested vocab.
New SAT: 15%.
The old test forced students to know a wide range of words through analogies, antonyms, and sentence completions. The new test abandoned that. Most vocab questions now just ask students to fill in one blank from context.
Reading passages also got radically shorter (average ~97 words vs 300–340).
The new test uses short expository passages and hands you the necessary background knowledge inside the text. The older tests leaned much more heavily on argumentative and persuasive writing, assumed far more historical, scientific, and cultural knowledge, and penalized students who lacked it.
This is a redefinition of what "college readiness" means.
If you believe that kids should develop rigorous vocabulary, be capable of sustained reading, and possess background knowledge, I have bad news for you. The SAT no longer measures these.
If you want a future where children can actually read difficult texts and construct complex arguments, the SAT must be replaced now.
This cannot go on.
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Apparently, after Anthropic made it much harder (a.k.a. 90-99% harder) for Chinese labs to distill Claude, the Chinese labs moved on to OpenAI. Per The Information article below, Kimi K3.1 Pro and DeepSeek's V4.1 Flash both lean heavily on GPT-6 Astra instead.
By the way, Anthropic apparently told investors that about 5-7% of revenue was due to distillation for the first 9 months of this year. In the prospectus, this is listed as revenue potentially from violating terms of service, etc., but verbally they had said it was distillation supposedly
Anyway, Moonshot still claimed to have K3.1 Pro beat Astra, the model it was trained on, on a coding benchmark. But it will be very interesting going forward to see what happens when distillation becomes less effective.
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SCOOP: Both Moonshot and DeepSeek distilled #
OpenAI#'s Astra when developing their latest models (Kimi K3.1 & V4.1-Flash 1017), after Anthropic intensified the crackdown on distillation recently. w/
@JuroOsawa @QianerLiu via
@theinformation
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Oh nooooo. Farewell, Captain.
I really enjoyed listening to his memoir after my first kid was born. Kid would take a really long time to fall asleep, and I'd end up just playing the audiobook on speakerphone because his voice was so soothing.
Alzheimer's is a hell of a disease. I hope we make a lot of progress towards its treatment and cure soon.
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In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions may be made to:
Johns Hopkins Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center Fund
Alzheimer’s Foundation of America Caregiver Resources
Photo Credit: Tommy Garcia
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Apparently Alibaba Cloud’s CTO said “Qwen4 next week” on stage at Apsara today, according to people in the room. Previously, all they’d officially confirmed was that the model was in training, and the slide still just says “coming soon.”
Also worth noting that this was in Amsterdam, at Alibaba Cloud’s first Apsara event in Europe. Alibaba wants to sell more compute internationally, and Qwen is a pretty important part of getting developers into its ecosystem.
The model people seem most excited about tho is the 27B, which some think could run on a single gaming GPU
PS Super confusing that the Alibaba Cloud CTO is also called Dr. Fei-Fei Li like the World Labs Stanford prof who just got acquihired by AMD
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From the
@Alibaba_Qwen Cloud CTO, Dr. Feifei Li - “Qwen4 next week”.
Live from Apsara, Amsterdam.
One of the most important skills in the 2020s is learning how to do biz dev and useful research over the internet, everyone!
We've gotten some requests at
@TechBuzzChina for single-person trips for startup founders looking for really untargeted "learning," and let me just tell you that that's not usually helpful. At the very least, you should be doing a bunch of calls with potential partners before making the trip. The trip should not be the first thing you do.
It's fine if you want to be wowed by Chinese infrastructure or the general
ecosystem, but for most founders, this is irrelevant, and I think it's a very poor use of time. Unless you're doing it for your Instagram or something, I don't really understand the point.
Anyway, you can hire us to do targeted BD for you: we're on several projects doing that exact thing right now. We're pretty good at doing this as long as it's in frontier tech and within our network. And I'm sure there are tons of other firms that can help you do it for other industries.
It's 2026, everyone. Initial business research and relationship building should start online. Yes, even Chinese people are so used to having conversations online; they don't necessarily need you to travel to meet them and make it a whole big thing. If you're trying to suss out basic compatibility and opportunities, do the first pass remotely.
If you're just looking for inspiration, general learning, or wanting to spend time where you truly have no idea what you're trying to do with China tech, then yes, come on one of our group trips. By the way, at least half the value is in the group that we curate together and the relationships you make with other folks on the bus.
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While $56,000 per year might sound like a lot to many people for K-12 tuition, this is really a drop in the bucket for many of the folks who live in San Francisco.
I think what is left unsaid, though, is that the school environment is very helpful to select for other folks of the same class. These schools hire many of the same teachers and have a lot of the same methodologies and standards as public schools, so it is no secret that the school itself does not necessarily provide academic rigor; it is a lot of after-school prep and outside resources anyways.
Nothing beats the connections you can make tho
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Tuition costs at private schools in San Francisco according to the SF Chronicle
Average private high school in the city is $56k per year. Middle school $30k and elementary $28k
The Catholic schools on this list stand out as having substantially lower tuition and many are regarded as being some of the top schools in the city
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