Lambert estimates US-China AI gap at 2-5 months and that if distillation were shut off this might increase by 1-2 months. Very plausible estimates, in my opinion. I'd say gap is ~6 months and distillation is a relatively modest correction to this.

You know, you would think so, but this is exactly the kind of pod I plan to start for my kids, and it's very difficult to get interest. I'd be trying to benchmark to native-level fluency Chinese and close to China-level math, which is quite a bit harder than American grade levels. Maybe I just need a better marketing scheme? Or @Alphaschool you can fund me to run your first bilingual Chinese program

I'm pretty picky, but this is a pretty good take by David, who no doubt benefited a lot from his extensive previous employment with DCM, one of the OG and leading cross-border VC firms out there active in both the U.S. and China. A lot of what David says here is true, which is that previous Chinese ecosystem weaknesses, such as the absence of enterprise software, could turn into strengths when it comes to on-prem deployment or remain a weakness when it comes to data connectors and collection. I know this piece is mostly about AI with a very slight touch on robotics, but the mood is very different depending on who you talk to: whether they are in embodied AI, foundational models, renewable energy, biotech, or even BCI companies (where I've spent a little bit of time), etc. But I'd agree that for AI specifically, the model companies are mostly busy fighting each other, and everyone is an exhausted zombie. It is much more relaxed in Silicon Valley, and that's why everyone wants to come here. It's pretty good vibes, man, in comparison. Gotta say.

ByteDance's AI Assistant has 382mm MAU as of June Qwen has 167mm These are pretty large numbers and a big jump (172% for ByteDance, almost tripling) from last year Interesting MAU counts from QuestMobile for these top AI-native apps in China. The categorizations I largely agree with I guess, and it's not super surprising to see that there are two learning-focused apps in the top 10. Steep dropoff after the first 3 ...

I've been spending some time on Zhihu (China's Quora) lately, and this is not at all a new observation, but it's been a few weeks, so I can repeat it again ... some of the biggest skeptics of China's tech development are Chinese people in China lol

Just got two fake, phishing DMs from two fake reporters @Jaydayritt and @Futana6, one from Wired, one from TechCrunch, trying to get access to my X account. The accounts actually look pretty legit, especially this "Chloe" one, whose feed is legitimately nurtured to be TC-focused The scam was disguised as Calendly links, but they actually redirect to something called EventsPortal, which is basically trying to gain access to your X account Luckily, I'm too wired with coffee to fall for something stupid like that, but also because I deal with enough reporters to know they don't ask you to book with some team calendar, they usually need the story right away lol

I haven't given my Muse AI agent any access except my calendar, but it's actually surprisingly useful, mainly because I also point it to Facebook Groups and Marketplace. I gave it a decently complex set of requirements for finding some used Halloween costumes for my kids, and it's been monitoring and giving me pretty good answers. That being said, I really am quite paranoid about giving it more access

I've been watching Dark, the German "time-traveling family saga" show from a few years ago. A central theme so far is that events are predetermined, mainly because of actions we've taken in the past that make what happens in the present ... inevitable. This absolutely feels like one of them.

It's pretty clear to me many American "elites" definitely do not talk to anyone outside of their class, country, or ethnicity. It will be interesting how many people eventually realize the world has been changing under their eyes. One of the things I super appreciate about running @TechBuzzChina is that I've gotten to talk to and hang out with so many people from different international backgrounds. Now, the socioeconomic status does tend to be middle to upper for those kinds of conversations but due to my interest and work in philanthropy, I also have cultivated a pretty good network with the populations that tend to be overlooked, and that's been very helpful at giving context, at least when it comes to China

This is not true from what I’m hearing from the Chinese AI labs. They plan to keep open-sourcing models. Revenue share from inference providers is a sustainable business model with limited GPUs, and a strong distribution channel.

On a potential AI slowdown, Treasury Sec. Bessent said that the U.S. and China discussed a mechanism called the U.S.-China AI dialogue and have agreed to meet again. The U.S. proposed a notification mechanism between the two countries and “we want a shared vision of common goals and threats.” The notification system for incidents would be whether something rises up to the national security level from AI. “We think that just like any cross-border activity, moving from opaque to more transparency between the number one and number two AI powers in the world is very important.” U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer said that U.S. chip export controls were not on the agenda.

It's not just American car companies that are not competitive. This past weekend, I had to go to Seattle for a trip and we had originally rented a Tesla 3, but it got canceled last minute, so we switched to another sedan, a 2026 Camry Hybrid. When I got it, I could not believe that such a car was still being made in 2026, sold for $30,000, and marketed as a mid-market sedan. It was just so incredibly crappy in every way. The only saving grace is that its mileage was okay, over 40 miles per gallon

Oh look, the same company, Irregular, "unintentionally" opened internet access, just like it did with every other hacking eval it was supposed to oversee Who is doing the sales for this company? They're amazing. The company is clearly, grossly incompetent, and yet they're able to get all these big-name clients

People are expressing dismay at how many elite college PhD grads this middle school in Shenzhen is hiring. A couple of points to give you more context: 1. Shenzhen Middle School is not just any school; it's a top school in the country 2. Teaching is a coveted job in China, especially at a top school like this. It's got pretty good pay and high status, as well as great benefits. Now, there are also issues because you're dealing with very picky parents and it's incredibly competitive 3. Teachers' kids usually get preferential treatment to get into the school they teach at, which is no different from the US and is a huge incentive 4. Have you looked at the teacher makeup of elite high schools in the US? There are plenty of Ivy grads 5. Have you guys actually looked at what Chinese kids are studying these days? Maybe you should look up my tweet on how myself, my PKU colleague, and our spouses (one Ivy, one PKU) were all stumped on their eight-year-old's math tutoring homework 6. If it's not obvious by now, this is a very competitive job, and the credentials reflect that. The takeaway really should be: Why are American parents so often not that interested in the academic credentials of their kids' teachers? My observation is that over the past couple of decades, somehow we have decoupled education from academic rigor. I can't understand this, but many parents I meet will literally tell me that they don't know, for their kids' elementary education, if academics is something they really need to focus on.